Movies / TV
2004 Baseball Preview
By Alan Keiper
Mar 30, 2004, 00:24

2004 MLB Preview

Welcome to the first edition of the TSM baseball review. In our
inaugural edition, I will provide a brief preview of all thirty clubs as we
head into the upcoming baseball season. But first, a brief primer. In my
column, you might see some new phrases or statistics you are unfamiliar
with. Here are a few of them.

Win Shares- A Bill James invention, which attempts to measure
player performance using a single integer. Win Shares works by taking a
team's actual Win-Loss record, and assigning three Win Shares per win. The
system is not quite perfect, but I believe it is quite effective in
measuring defense, as it assumes winning teams have better defenses.

Pythagorean W-L- A method of estimating a team's actual win-loss
record, using its totals of runs scored and runs allowed. This method is
useful for identifying the true quality, and future potential of a team.

OPS- On Base Percentage Plus Slugging. This stat is a rough guide
to a player's ability to get on base and drive in runners. It is gaining
popularity even among the less statistically oriented.

You will doubtless see other terms you are unfamiliar with. If you are
confused, drop me a note and I will gladly explain them. And now, on to the
preview!

AL EAST

The New York Yankees arrive this season aiming high towards a
World Series Championship, and owner George Steinbrenner will accept nothing
less. An insane off-season spending and trading spree netted the Yanks Alex
Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Paul Quantrill, Tom
Gordon, and Kenny Lofton. In contrast, they lost Alfonso Soriano (trade),
Nick Johnson (trade), Andy Pettitte (free agency), and Roger Clemens (free
agency). On paper, they appear to be a much stronger team. If healthy, I
would expect this team to win 112 games. But that is a big "if." Injuries
will determine the course of this team, particularly in the starting
rotation. The Yankees have little starting pitching depth, and if two or
more pitchers miss significant time, the Yankees may struggle. However, I
think this team is strong enough to win the division.

The Boston Red Sox came within a handful of outs of winning the
American League pennant. Over the off-season, they boosted their team by
adding Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke. Along with those two, the Red Sox
feature star hitters Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and ace
starter Pedro Martinez. The hitting is solid, but I expect some regression.
Overall, the Sox's situation is similar to the Yankees'. The health of
Schilling and Martinez will determine the success of this team. While I do
not think the Red Sox are favorites to take the division, I do expect them
to take the wild card. As for talk of how all the off-season trade rumors
will affect the team, do not believe them.

Derek Lowe currently ranks 5th on the Red Sox lists of games pitched,
with 351. If he makes 32 starts, he will tie Roger Clemens for second on
the list, with 383. He will need considerable time however to catch #1, Bob
Stanley, who pitched 637 games for the Red Sox.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued their steady improvement in 2003,
winning 86 games. If they played in the Central, they could easily win a
division title. Alas, they are trapped in the highly competitive A.L. East.
The Blue Jays bolstered their pitching staff this off-season, adding Ted
Lilly, Miguel Batista, and veteran starter Pat Hentgen. Their hitting
remains solid, featuring Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells. The Blue Jays
have a surplus of good young hitting talent in their system, including Josh
Phelps, John-Ford Griffin, Guillermo Quiroz, and Alexis Rios. And if the
Yankees and/or Red Sox suffer a rash of injuries, do not be surprised to see
the Blue Jays make a run at the playoffs.

The Baltimore Orioles took a long awaited step towards
respectability, signing Javy Lopez, Miguel Tejada, and Rafael Palmeiro.
While these players will improve the team, I can not see the Orioles rising
out of fourth place. Their pitching remains suspect after Sidney Ponson,
and I highly doubt Javy Lopez will match last year's production. As an
aside, I find it amusing that allegations of steroid use are levied against
players such as Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi, but not a work is spoken about
Javy Lopez. A sudden leap in production, along with no increase in plate
discipline? But that's another issue. Palmeiro will lose production, but
remain a solid hitter. As for Miguel Tejada, Camden Yards is an odd
baseball park. It decreases run production, but increases home runs.
Look for Tejada to hit more home runs, but hit at the same level.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays remain a moribund franchise. After six
years of existence, they have yet to finish higher than fifth place. The
upcoming season bears little hope for change. The pitching is thin if not
non-existent, and the infield is particularly weak. One time pitching
phenom Joe Kennedy was traded to the Colorado Rockies after a poor season.
There isn't a single pitcher on the staff who looks solid. Is there any
hope to this franchise? Surprisingly yes. Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford
are a pair of 21 year old outfielders who can run, and have some hitting
ability. Aubrey Huff is becoming one of the American League's elite
hitters. Keep an eye on shortstop prospect B.J. Upton. Upton is a grade A
prospect, and could become a future all-star.

AL CENTRAL

The Minnesota Twins lost closer Eddie Guardado, set-up man LaTroy
Hawkins, traded Eric Milton to the Phillies, and traded catcher A.J.
Pierzynski to the Giants. Without question, this team looks shakier than
the squad that won the AL Central last season. The bullpen is practically
non-existent. The middle infield is weak as well. The Twins have negated
their biggest strength, up and coming minor league hitting, by signing Doug
Mientkiewicz and Shannon Stewart long term, and they insist upon keeping
Jacque Jones around. Consequently, good young hitters like Michael Cuddyer
are wasted on the bench. One thing the Twins have going for them are two
young minor leaguers, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer looks like the
starting catcher this season, and it�s only a matter of time before Morneau
becomes the DH. Look for Johan Santana to emerge as an elite starter this
season. I think the Twins are the favorites to win the division for a third
consecutive year, but only due to lack of competition.

The Chicago White Sox lost several key players to free agency last
season, including Tom "Flash" Gordon, Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett. In
return, the White Sox signed Cliff Politte. It was not exactly a banner
off-season for the south side of Chicago. The Sox did retain most of their
talented hitters, including Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, and
Jose Valentin. The hitting is certainly solid. The pitching, however, is
extremely weak. Esteban Loazia provides a nice start, and Mark Buehrle is
generally a quality starter. Afterwards, however, the rotation takes a turn
for the worst. John Garland is an average starter with some potential.
Scott Schoeneweis has shown some flashes of good stuff, but he is no sure
thing. Afterwards, the fifth starter's job is a competition between Jon
Rauch and Neal Cotts. Both have potential, but are injury risks, and might
not be ready. If the pitching develops, the Sox could win a weak central.
But if the pitching fails, it will be a long summer in Chicago. Keep an eye
on minor league outfielder Jeremy Reed. As an aside, if reports of Ozzie
Guillen�s managerial �skills,� are accurate, this could be a real hoot to
watch.

The Kansas City Royals surprised baseball when they finished with
a winning record and kept in the Central race for nearly the entire season.
However, they allowed more runs than they scored, and generally they looked
like a fluke team. Normally, I would expect a regression. But I am not
sure. They are in a weak division, and they are the only team not to face a
loss of talent. Losing Raul Ibanez and Michael Tucker will not affect the
team a great deal. They signed Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago. In
addition, Matt Stairs should provide a nice platoon arrangement with Ken
Harvey at the DH slot. Their young pitching prospects should continue to
develop, and they have depth. Zach Greinke is a potential ace. Keep an eye
on minor league outfielder David DeJesus, who could replace Carlos Beltran
after this season.

The Cleveland Indians are a team in a rebuilding process. They
traded most of their aging stars for minor league prospects. How those
prospects develop will determine their course for this season. Milton
Bradley and Jody Gerut seemingly arrived last season. Now, the Indians are
counting on Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ben Broussard to lead their
team to the next golden age. The pitching is anchored by C.C. Sabathia, but
is uncertain afterwards. The Indians could surprise people and win the
division, if everything goes right. They could also lose 90 games again, if
everything goes wrong. Keep an eye on minor leaguer Grady Sizemore, who hit
.304 in AA Akron last season.

The Detroit Tigers come off a historically bad season, losing 119
games. Nearly every hitter underperformed their expectations, with the
exception of Dmitri Young. Of course, no team can completely suck without a
major contribution from their pitching staff. The Tigers threw Jeremy
Bonderman to the wolves at the age of 20, and he was still their best
pitcher. Worse, the Tigers have little to offer in their minor league
system. Still, the Tigers carry on, and have managed to improve their team.
They signed Ivan Rodriguez, Fernando Vina, Jason Johnson, and Rondell
White as free agents. They also traded Ramon Santiago for Carlos Guillen.
These improvements, coupled with a progression to the norm of the rest of
their roster, should represent a marked improvement in their team.

AL WEST

The Oakland Athletics remain a strong team, thanks to their big
three pitchers. Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson provide a rock-solid
foundation, and the three are a combined 205-96 in their careers. Mark
Redman and Rich Harden round out the best rotation in the American League.
Some are down on the hitting due to the loss of Miguel Tejada, but Bobby
Crosby should fill in nicely, and the outfield is greatly improved, rising
from "crap" to "average." Ricardo Rincon, Chad Bradford, and newly acquired
Arthur Rhodes round out a solid bullpen. Despite the Angels' improvements,
I think the Athletics are still favorites to win the division.

The Seattle Mariners found themselves a new general manager, Bill
Bavasi. Bavasi was immediately kidnapped by crudely trained monkeys, who
proceeded to make the most inane off-season dealings imaginable. They
attempted to trade Carlos Guillen to the Indians for Omar Vizquel. Let us
see, Guillen is 27, in his prime, played in a pitchers' park, and sported a
.359 OBP. Vizquel is 36, declining, often injured, hits in a hitters' park,
and had a .321 OBP. Which one would you rather have on your team? It
didn't end there. After Vizquel failed a physical, Bavasi proceeded to sign
Rich Aurilia for $2 Million, and traded Guillen for peanuts. Aurilia's OBPs
the last two seasons were .305 and .325. And Bavasi gave him $2 million
MORE for the same production he was already getting from Carlos Guillen.
The pain didn't end there. Bavasi signed Raul Ibanez to a three year
contract to play left field, ignoring the extreme hitters' tendencies of
Kaufmann Stadium. He signed Scott Spiezio to play third. Spiezio has a
.929 fielding percentage at third base, and his range factor is well below
average. Butch Hobson had better watch his back. It gets even better.
Bavasi traded Greg Colbrunn away from Quinten McCracken. Take a gander at
McCracken's OPS+ numbers from the last five years: 65, 6, 55, 110
and 38. One good season, and four abjectly TERRIBLE seasons. And Bavasi
traded FOR this guy. Unbelievable. There are some bright spots. Bret
Boone and Edgar Martinez can hit. Ichiro Suzuki might just be the most fun
player to watch in all of baseball. The pitching is solid. Joel Pineiro,
Jamie Moyer, and Rafael Soriano are excellent. But the storm clouds are
brewing.

The Anaheim Angels acquired a new owner, who injects energy, and
cash, into the team. The Angels made waves on the free agency market,
signing Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, and Kelvim Escobar. I'm on record
as calling this division for the Athletics, but the Angels look very strong
heading into this season. They need healthy seasons from Troy Glaus, Troy
Percival, and Darin Erstad in order to win. I would not be surprised to see
this team steal a wild card berth. Vladimir Guerrero should re-establish
himself as a superstar, and Francisco Rodriguez remains a joy to watch.
Keep an eye on Casey Kotchman, a true hitting prospect, and a sure thing if
he stays healthy.

The Texas Rangers looked like a struggling franchise going into
the off-season. And then they did something monumentally stupid. They
traded away the best shortstop since Honus Wagner. All the Rangers have
done the last two seasons is bitch about how they could not possibly win
with Rodriguez's contract on the books. And most fans believed them. In
2002, the Angels won the World Series with a $63 Million payroll. The
Rangers payroll was $107 Million. Subtract A-Rod's salary and the Rangers
paid $82 Million to the rest of their team. Yes, with a head start
consisting of the league's best player, and $20 million more than the World
Series champions, they didn't win. But A-Rod got paid $25 million, so of
course his contract was a drag on the team. Next year, same deal. So they
went and dumped A-Rod, and yet they are STILL paying him $9 million a year.
They saved $16 million. So what are they doing with their new found wealth?
Absolutely nothing. No pitch for Maddux. No pitch for Ugueth Urbina.
Nothing. To me, it�s obvious the A-Rod fiasco was nothing more than
corporate greed. The Rangers saved a few dollars, at the expense of their
club. So what about their club? They possibly have the best infield in
baseball. Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock are future perennial all-stars.
Alfonso Soriano is an elite second baseman. Michael Young is solid. The
outfield is fairly good, with Brian Jordan and Kevin Mench. The pitching?
It sucks.

NL EAST

The Atlanta Braves face undoubtedly their toughest challenge to
date, as they look for their unprecedented 13th consecutive division title.
Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, Greg Maddux, and Vinny Castilla all departed via
free agency. To fill those holes, the Braves traded for J.D. Drew, signed
John Thomson, and are looking within the organization to fill the gaps.
Utility infielder Mark DeRosa looks to claim the third base job. Adam
LaRoche will take the first base job, and Johnny Estrada becomes the
starting catcher. There's a lot of unproven talent there. They could get
it done, but they are no sure thing. The pitching staff looks weaker than
we are used to seeing from the Braves. Russ Ortiz is barely an ace, aided
last year by terrific run support. Mike Hampton looks revived, and John
Thomson is good. Horacio Ramirez is the #4 starter, and one of the rookies
will take the 5th slot until Paul Byrd comes back, if he does at all. I
would not be shocked to see the Braves pull this out, but the odds are
against them.

The Florida Marlins shocked the baseball world by winning the
World Series when most of baseball had them pegged for last place. As an
aside, small market, low payroll teams can not compete. Anyway, the Marlins
played the off-season smart. They let some of their high priced talent go,
while retaining good, young talent which should keep them competitive.
Derrek Lee was replaced by Hee Seop Choi. The move means a short term
decline, but should reap long term benefits. The Marlins let Ugueth Urbina
depart via free agency, and re-signed Armando Benitez. They traded away
Juan Encarnacion, and will reap the benefits of not giving at bats to Juan
Encarnacion. They signed Mike Lowell long term. So will the Marlins
repeat. I find it very unlikely. EVERYTHING went right for the Marlins
last season. I just do not think their luck will continue.

Pitcher Brad Penny is just two wins behind Ryan Dempster for the
franchise�s all time record for wins.

The Philadelphia Phillies solidified their team over the
off-season. They got rid of "closer" Jose Mesa, and traded for Billy Wagner
and Eric Milton, and they signed Tim Worrell to round out their bullpen.
The Phillies have as solid of a rotation as any team in baseball. The
bullpen looks good as well. The lineup has terrific potential, but the
Phillies need a rebound season from Pat Burrell. David Bell is a minor
concern, but Chase Utley is more than ready to take his place. Bobby Abreu
remains one of the game's great unheralded players. From here, the Phillies
look like favorites to win the National League East.

The Montreal Expos continue their great adventure. Despite
getting screwed by Major League Baseball for the last three seasons, they
continue to scrape along the edge of contention. This season presents a
unique challenge. They lost franchise player Vladimir Guerrero to free
agency. They also lost their ace starter, Javier Vazquez, in a trade to the
Yankees which netted them Nick Johnson. In addition to Johnson, they
acquired free agent outfielder Carl Everett. Can they remain competitive?
Yes and no. Their offense looks as good as ever. Nick Johnson could be an
offensive force, and Carl Everett should shine. Brad Wilkerson is solid,
and Orlando Cabrera and Jose Vidro compose on of baseball's best middle
infields. The pitching presents a problem however. Livan Hernandez emerged
as an ace starter. Beyond Livan, there is Tony Armas, Zach Day, and Tomo
Ohka. None of those guys inspire greatness, and the fifth starter's spot
remains unsettled. The bullpen is weak, with Rocky Biddle among baseball's
worst closers. There's little depth in the minor league system. This
franchise will struggle this year, and will continue to struggle until Bud
Selig pulls his head out of his ass and figures out what to do with this
club. An owner who cares would be a good start.

The New York Mets took several steps forward over the off-season.
They signed free-agent Mike Cameron to patrol center field. Cameron will
provide power and speed at the plate, and his superb defense will lessen the
hits allowed by Mets' pitching. They signed free agent Kaz Matsui to play
shortstop. These new acquisitions, along with healthy seasons from Cliff
Floyd and Mike Piazza, should boost the Mets out of last place. Keep a
close eye on minor league pitcher Scott Kazmir.

NL CENTRAL

The Chicago Cubs came within five outs of winning the National
League pennant. Over the off-season, they bolstered their team, signing
Greg Maddux, and traded Hee Seop Choi to the Florida Marlins in exchange for
Derrek Lee. They proceeded to sign Lee to a three-year contract. Some
regression is to be expected from their lineup. Grudzielanek had a career
year last season, and the Cubs won't match Kenny Lofton's half-season out of
center field. Still, the lineup has its power threats in Lee and Sammy
Sosa. The Cubs' pitching is extremely dangerous. Mark Prior is already
among the league's elite, and Kerry Wood is right behind. Greg Maddux is an
aging but effective pitcher. Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement are spotty,
but they throw dynamite. The addition of free agent LaTroy Hawkins should
help the Cubs develop a solid bullpen. A World Series caliber team, but I
think the Astros are a hair better.

The Houston Astros are my favorites to win the Central, and I have
maintained that since before the team signed Roger Clemens. A look at their
runs scored and runs allowed totals indicate a touch of bad luck. They'll
improve on their 2003 record. As for this team, they signed Clemens and
Andy Pettitte to join Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller in a solid rotation.
Octavio Dotel should slide right into the closer's role. Jeff Bagwell, Jeff
Kent, Morgan Ensberg, Lance Berkman, and Richard Hidalgo form the nucleus of
a dangerous lineup. I think the Astros will take the Central, and they are
an early favorite to win the pennant.

The St. Louis Cardinals struggled last season, garnering sub-par
performances left and right. Their bullpen was particularly bad. Starting
pitching depth was an issue as well. The Cards traded oft-injured slugger
J.D. Drew to the Atlanta Braves, in return for Jason Marquis and Adam
Wainwright. The Cards signed Reggie Sanders to fill the gap at right field.
They dumped Tino Martinez. They added Jeff Suppan to their rotation, and
are counting on the return of Chris Carpenter. Finally, they acquired
Julian Tavarez and Ray King to boost their battered bullpen. The Cardinals
should perform better this season than last season, and could surprise
people. I think this will be the first MVP season for Albert Pujols as
well.

The Cincinnati Reds suffered a rash of injuries as all three of
their star outfielders, Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, missed
time last season. The Reds will need those three to rebound in order to
compete in 2004. Elsewhere, the rest of the Reds' lineup is average.
Shortstop Barry Larkin is a future hall of famer, but he's missed
significant time two out of the last three seasons. He's at the end of the
line. The pitching is downright horrid. Cory Lidle and Brandon Claussen
represent a glimmer of hope, but the Reds' staff by far trails the big three
in this division. Catch a look at reliever Ryan Wagner. A 2003 draftee, he
breezed through the minor leagues into the Reds' bullpen.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are counting on their young players to
boost the team in 2004. Outfielders Jason Bay and J.J. Davis look
promising. Freddy Sanchez and Bobby Hill will compete for the second base
job. The Pirates have complemented these youngsters with veteran free
agents Randall Simon and Raul Mondesi. Talented catcher Jason Kendall
rounds out the lineup. The pitching rotation has a handful of promising
arms, including Oliver Perez and Kip Wells. Most expect the Pirates to
trade Kris Benson by the start of the season. The bullpen is weak. The
Pirates probably will not compete for a division title, but an improvement
is probable for this squad. Keep an eye on promising pitching prospect John
VanBenschoten.

The Milwaukee Brewers continue treading water in the cellar of the
NL Central. The team stinks. There is no other way of saying it. Their
only established hitter, Geoff Jenkins, is a mainstay on the disabled list.
Scott Podsednik showed promise last season, finishing in the top three in
Rookie of the Year balloting. Beyond those two, the team inspires no
confidence. Ben Grieve is a project. Junior Spivey had a fluke season.
Craig Counsell is hardly a star. Lyle Overbay is average at best. The
pitching doesn't look much better. Ben Sheets is a true star. Otherwise,
the pitching is mediocre. This franchise's hope lies in its farm system.
Prince Fielder can crush the ball. Richie Weeks is a great 2B prospect.
Manny Parra is a promising pitching prospect. The nepotism continues with
Anthony Gwynn. Gwynn could be a fine prospect, but it�s too soon to tell.
In any case, Huntsville might be more fun than Milwaukee this season.

NL WEST

The San Francisco Giants look to defend their division title.
They have won the NL West two straight seasons, and three of the last four
seasons. This team is entirely dependant on the performance of Barry Bonds.
With Bonds, the Giants are a dangerous team. Without him, the offense
becomes a black hole. The Giants starting pitching is weaker than in
previous years. Jason Schmidt is a CY Young candidate, but questions abound
afterwards. The Giants traded Kurt Ainsworth mid-way last season, and Jesse
Foppert is out for the year, leaving Jerome Williams as the only remaining
prospect. Kirk Rueter may crash and burn this season. But it really is all
up to Bonds. Healthy Bonds, and the Giants win the division. Injured or
declining Bonds, and the Giants lose their grip on the West.

The Los Angeles Dodgers entered the off-season in a desperate
search for offense. Instead, they picked up Juan Encarnacion from the
Florida Marlins. Oh well. The other big offensive upgrade for the Dodgers
comes in the form of Bubba Trammell. Needless to say, look for the Dodgers
to finish last in run production once again. The pitching is slightly
shakier with the loss of Kevin Brown. Jeff Weaver should perform well, but
he's no Brown. The Dodgers hope phenom Edwin Jackson makes it to the big
club sooner than later. Kazuhisa Ishii walks too many batters, but Hideo
Nomo and Odalis Perez are solid. The Dodgers have a tremendous advantage in
one run games, thanks to the presence of super-ace closer Eric Gagne. I do
not think the Dodgers have the skill necessary to win the division. They
should finish around .500.

With just 22 saves, Eric Gagne will tie the Dodgers� all time team
record for saves.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking to hold their aging franchise
together. Randy Johnson might be on his last legs, but he could have a good
season or two left. Luis Gonzalez is 36, but shows no signs whatsoever of
slowing down. The D'backs acquired Richie Sexson from the Brewers to back
up their offense. They traded Curt Schilling away, but got Casey Fossum and
co. in return. The Diamondbacks are also counting on the repeated success
of their star rookie, Brandon Webb. This team could be good enough to win
the division.

The Colorado Rockies are all hitting and no pitching. That is not
just a park illusion. The Rockies' pitching is truly bad. The lineup is
fairly good. Todd Helton is a true star, and Preston Wilson and Larry
Walker shine. The middle infield is weak, however, and new acquisition
Vinny Castilla is nearly finished. I can not see the Rockies competing
until they add some talent to their rotation.

The San Diego Padres look poised to make a big statement this
upcoming season. They feature a lineup full of tough hitters, including
Brian Giles, Ryan Klesko, Sean Burroughs, and Jay Payton. They also feature
several young up-and-coming pitchers, including Adam Eaton, Jake Peavy, and
Brian Lawrence. Veteran free agents David Wells, Sterling Hitchcock, and
Ismael Valdes add depth to the rotation. Moreover, the Padres now feature
one of baseball's best bullpens. Trevor Hoffman is a potential HOFer.
Backing him up are Rod Beck, and Japanese reliever Akinori Otsuka. A real
worst-to-first story could develop here.

BASEBALL'S UNDERRATED PLAYERS

In any sport, you will find players who go unrecognized. They are every
bit as good as the stars of their league, but for some reason or another,
the fans and media fail to realize it. Here I list the five players who I
feel are most underrated. This is not a list of potential "breakout"
stars. These players have already arrived.

1. Bobby Abreu

Without question, the most underrated player in baseball. Abreu finished
seventh last season in Win Shares, yet finished a distant twenty-seventh in
MVP voting. He's never finished in the top ten of MVP voting, or even
appeared in an all star game. Meanwhile, he's finished in the top ten of
OBP nearly every year of his career. He's finished in the top ten in walks
every year. He's finished in the top ten in steals the last four years.
He's finished in the top three in power/speed the last five years.
Abreu does nothing but produce, year after year. As a parting word, Abreu's
most similar players at his age: Dave Parker, Bernie Williams, Fred Lynn,
Tony Oliva, Magglio Ordonez.

2. Livan Hernandez

Livan received no votes in the NL Cy Young award voting last season.
It�s easy to see why. A 15-10 record with a 3.20 ERA is hardly eye-popping.
However, he pitched for a team which finished near the bottom of the
league in runs scored, AND he pitched in the second most difficult pitching
environment in baseball, all while leading the National League in innings
pitched.

3. Jose Valentin

Valentin finally got a chance last season to stick with one position.
Despite a low batting average, he plays good defense, walks, and hits for
power. As good as Derek Jeter last season, for $10 Million less.

4. Mike Cameron

What does Mike Cameron do poorly?

1. Not strike out

What does Mike Cameron do well?

1. Hit for power

2. Walk often

3. Steals bases

4. Plays world class defense

The negatives outweigh the positive here.

5. Scott Rolen

Criminally underappreciated by Phillies fans. While the baseball world
went gaga over Mike Lowell, Rolen played the best baseball of his life,
reaching base at a .382 clip while playing gold glove defense.
Interestingly, the most similar player at his age is Gary Sheffield, who is
himself no slouch in the hitting department.

That's all for this week. The season kicks off Tuesday, March 30th at
5am, with the New York Yankees battling the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, in
Japan. The Orioles and Red Sox kick off Sunday, April 4th, and the rest of
baseball starts play on Monday, April 5th.