Movies / TV
Al's TSM Report for July 5th
By Alan Keiper
Jul 5, 2004, 18:54

ASSORTED RANTS ON THE ALL-STAR SELECTIONS

Sometimes columns just fall into your lap. I spent the week trying to develop column ideas, and low and behold, the All-Star selections appear to supply more than enough ammunition for a week's worth of writing.

Let us start with the fan voting. I believe most armchair analysts have it wrong. The All-Star game should not concern only this year's statistics. Too many mediocre players make an All-Star team because they put up the a good stretch of 200 at bats. 200 at bats is insufficient to judge players. Personally, I believe All-Star teams should be chosen in the same manner you would develop a fantasy team. Has Jack Wilson out hit Derek Jeter this season? Absolutely. Would you take Jack Wilson over Derek Jeter and expect him to keep up his performance? I would not count on it.

Understand, I am NOT advocating turning the All-Star game into a career achievements game. I am just advocating that we take prior level of performance into account when choosing players. When a player is putting up numbers completely out of whack with his past, I think we should exercise some caution. Do not disregard the player, but keep it in mind. What this all leads to, of course, is the fans' selection of Derek Jeter to start for the American League.

I do not believe Jeter's selection is necessarily a bad one. Jeter has established his offense at a near or at Hall of Fame level for over seven years now. Take away his abysmal April, and he has hit .319 the rest of the way. With Alex Rodriguez at third, and Nomar Garciaparra injured, Jeter is the best bet to lead the pack of shortstops the rest of the way. Moreover, he gives the American League the best chance to win.

I usually do not quibble with the fan voting, because the fans are indicating which players they want to see. They want to see Jeter, Giambi, etc., then let them start. The real problem in fan voting these days lies in disproportion. The Yankees and Red Sox this season were over-represented, and once again, Japanese players figure more prominantly in the voting than they should. Major League Baseball needs to take some steps to insure a fairer method of distributing the All-Star vote. Letting fans vote online twenty-five times cheapens the vote, in my opinion.

One thing about the All-Star rosters lately that bothers me is the surplus of closers featured on each roster. Five relievers, Francisco Cordero, Tom Gordon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Rodriguez, made the American League All-Star team. Relief pitchers pitch in relief because they are generally not as good as the starting pitchers. I do not believe relief pitchers should make the All-Star squad at all unless they are clearly established as dominant relievers. Francisco Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera should make the squad, and Eric Gagne from the National League, and that is it. Fill the rest of the rosters with starters. Any scrub can scrape together 40 good innings. An elite pitcher pitches well for 175-200 innings a season. Those are the pitchers who should make All-Star teams.

I would be remiss if I did not mention the failure once again to select Bobby Abreu to an All-Star squad. I ranted about Abreu's current stats. on the message board, so let us take a different look at the subject. Bill James invented a stat called "similarity scores." The number basically compares to players, and gives a number (up to 1000) indicating how similar the players are statistically. Baseball-Reference.com takes the number one step further, giving a list of most comparable players, both in career numbers and stats at their current age. For example, at the age of 27, Barry Bonds was most comparable to Bobby Bonds.

Through the age of 29, Abreu's most comparable players are Dave Parker, Bernie Williams, Fred Lynn, Tony Oliva, and Magglio Ordonez. At 29, Parker had appeared in three All-Star games. Williams appeared in two. Lynn appeared in seven All-Star games. Oliva appeared in seven games at that age. Ordonez appeared in three. Of the next five, Raul Mondesi appeared in one, Mike Sweeney appeared in four, Bob Meusel did not play while the All-Star game was around, Wally Berger played in three, and Mike Greenwell appeared in two.

Ten players similar to Bobby Abreu. All nine who had the opportunity made an All-Star squad at least once, and a few made several All-Star squads. Fortunately, MLB.com is providing a possible solution. The 32nd Man Vote is upon us, and Bobby Abreu is on the ballot. Do your part and select Abreu to represent the National League in the All-Star game. At the very least, you will serve to remind Astro fans that they let Abreu leave in the last expansion draft.

A LOOK AT THE SECOND HALF

With the All-Star game, and unofficial halfway point just a week away, let us take a brief look at the second half. The greatest stretch run of all time saw the New York Yankees come back from 14 games back to defeat the Boston Red Sox in 1978. So we will consider 14 games the break-off point. Any further, and teams are effectively considered out of the running.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

The Yankees currently hold a 7.5 game lead over the Red Sox. The Red Sox actually sport a better pythagorean win/loss record, so I would not be surprised to see them close the gap. The Devil Rays stand at .500 (10.5 games back), but considering their runs scored and allowed, I expect a regression there. The Orioles and Blue Jays are out of the division race.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins stand tied for the division lead. The White Sox pythagorean record is a full 100 percentage points higher than the Minnesota Twins, so the SOx currently look to be the favorites. The Indians stand four games back, and the Tigers six back. Either team could make a run with a few breaks here or there. The Royals (13.5 back) are waiting for next season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

The Oakland Athletics hold a scant 1/2 game lead over the surprising Texas Rangers. The race is shaping up to be one of the best in baseball, with both teams appearing to be of equal quality. The Athletics are looking for a boost with star hitter Eric Chavez returning following the All-Star break. Injuries and ineffective starting pitching have hurt the Anaheim Angels (4.5 games back). If they get a few breaks however, they could make a run. The Mariners (14 games out) are just about finished.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Call it homerism, but the Philadelphia Phillies could pull away from the East. The Florida Marlins are treading water, while the New York Mets are playing over their heads. The Phillies and Mets open a three game series tonight, so we will know better by Thursday. The Phillies will have to contend with the Marlins at some point, as they have dropped an amazing 18 of their last twenty games against the Fish. The Marlins next face Philly on July 22nd, at Evil Faceless Corporation Park. The Atlanta Braves (3.5 games out), are looking to sell rather than make a run. The Montreal Expos are done.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

A dogfight all the way. The St. Louis Cardinals sport a four game lead, but the Chicago Cubs (four games back), and the Houston Astros (7.5 games) both sport great teams, and could make runs. I am less sanguine about the chances for the Cincinnati Reds (six games), and Milwaukee Brewers (seven games). The Pittsburgh Pirates have won nine of their last ten, but it is doubtful they can leapfrog five teams.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

The San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Los Angeles Dodgers all stand within a game of one another. Any of these three teams can win the division, given a break or two. This race could be heavily dependant on what occurs at the trading deadline. Rumors include Nomar Garciaparra to the Dodgers, or Steve Finley to the Padres. I do not put much stock into rumors. I am really just killing time here.

A SPECIAL TRIBUTE TO BOB BRENLY

Bob Brenly became the first manager fired this season, as he was axed by the Arizona Diamondbacks. There is no better time, it seems, to take a look back at his World Series win in 2001. Never before has a team overcome managerial idiocy to win a World Series as the Diamondbacks did that season. Let us take a look at some of Brenly's highlights....

Brenly, with the greatest left-hander in the last thirty years on his squad, somehow managed to keep Randy Johnson from pitching in Yankee Stadium, a haven for lefty pitchers.

Brenly kept Randy Johnson pitching in blowout games, racking up high pitch counts when lesser pitchers could have eaten innings. I am fairly certain that 15 run lead in game six was safe.

Game four, my personal favorite. Three times, Tony Womack managed to get himself on base to lead off an inning, an amazing feat onto itself. Three times, Counsell delivered sacrifice bunt to advance Womack. Three times, the Arizona Diamondbacks failed to score. Their insistance on playing small ball possibly cost them a run or two, and that came back to haunt them in the ninth inning. It is worth noting that in the third inning, pitcher Orlando Hernandez walked both Womack and Luis Gonzalez on four pitches. With the pitcher failing to throw strikes, Brenly had Counsell deliever a free out.

The day after Byung-Hyun Kim threw 61 pitches in relief, Brenly sent him out again the next day, and Kim again gave up two runs.

In that fateful ninth inning in game seven, Brenly attempted two sacrifice bunts, and left his best hitter sitting on the bench. Only an unlikely double from weak-hitting Tony Womack saved the Diamondbacks' hide.

So, as we reminisce about the 2001 Series, we raise a glass to Bob Brenly, and pray that his kind are driven into extinction by managers who have read Weaver On Strategy.

With that, I am out. Keep an eye next week for a special edition, as we simulate the All-Time All Star game. Carl Yastrzemski and Jackie Robinson have made the squad in the 32nd man voting. Until then, watch some games!

Send feedback to: Alan Keiper