NFL Instant Replay: Week 8

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NFL Instant Replay: Week 8
By Dr. Tom
Nov 2, 2004, 20:24

NFL INSTANT REPLAY: Week 8

Following a four-day �working vacation� (read: I did a lot of work and had very little actual �vacation�) and a pile of projects greeting me this morning, this will be shorter than I�d originally planned. I�m going to postpone the midpoint stuff until next week, since every team will have played its eighth game by then. Sorry for the skimping that�s unfortunately necessary for this week, but you have hereby been warned.

The �team of the decade� lost a bit of shine when they lost to the Steelers Sunday. Make no mistake, friends, the Pats are still a very good team, but the Steelers outplayed them in every facet of the game. I said last week that an upset wouldn�t surprise me, and indeed the result of the game was not surprising. It was the degree to which Pittsburgh dominated a previously unbeaten team that was surprising. Stunning, in fact. We�ll get to that in a bit.

Week 8: The Week That Was (in brief)

Philly 15, RAVENS~! 10. Kyle Boller finally shows up, but the rest of the team is hurt. Great.
Houston 20, Jacksonville 6. Leftwich is out 4-6 weeks, which could be a frown squad for the Jags.
Dallas 31, Detroit 21. Vinny got some crucial yards on a QB sneak. Yes, you read that right.
Buffalo 38, Arizona 14 Will the real Arizona Cardinals please stand up?
Green Bay 28, DC Metro Area 14. If this means Kerry wins, then I now loathe Brett Favre.
Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 20. Why didn�t the Bengals use the same game plan as last week?
NJ Giants 34, Minnesota 13. The Giants officially own the Vikings. What other explanation is there?
Kansas City 45, Indy 35. Defense, coming soon to a city near you. Well, unless you live near KC or Indy.
Seattle 23, Carolina 17. Hard to believe the Panthers lost a close Super Bowl in January, isn�t it?
Atlanta 41, Denver 28. Is Vick finally getting comfortable in the West Coast offense? Fear him if so.
San Diego 42, Oakland 14. So why did San Diego go thru the whole Manning-Rivers rigamarole?
Pittsburgh 34, New England 20. NE team rushing line: 6 carries, 5 yards. Still wonder why they lost?
Chicago 23, The City 13. Starting next week at QB for the Bears: Jim McMahon.
NJ Jets 41, Miami 14. So much for the Dolphins� winning streak . . .

Pass For Show, Run For Dough

In this era of Sports Center highlights and fans with short attention spans, the passing game gets a lot of love. Every week, at least one QB goes en fuego passing the ball, and a couple teams live and die putting the ball in the air. Maybe I�m just an old-school ball-control guy, but I think the running game is still the most important offensive ingredient, since it lets you wear down both your enemies at once: the opposing team, and the game clock.

I�m going to chart some rushing statistics this season (as I did last season, until time constraints forced me to scrap this column) and see how important the running game really is. Each week, I�ll tally up the 100-yard rushers and see how their teams did. Also, I�ll look at teams that ran the ball 30 or more times, and teams that ran it 20 or fewer times, and see how they did.

Week 8:
100-yard rushers: 9 *
Team record: 8-0

30 or more rushing attempts: 13
Team record: A dominant 12-1

20 or fewer rushing attempts: 11
Team record: 0-11 **

Season to date:
100-yard rushers: 71
Team record: 57-13 (81.42%)

30 or more rushing attempts: 85
Team record: 68-17 (80.0%)

20 or fewer rushing attempts: 46
Team record: 5-39 (10.86%)

* In the Jets-Dolphins game, both Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan rushed for over 100 yards in New Jersey�s dominating win. Thus, the discrepancy between 100-yard rushers and the team records, which will be off by at least one game all season long. I can live with that, since it means teams are emphasizing the running game.

** Clearly, more NFL coaches need to read this column. Rushing the ball 30 or more times wins you the game at an 80% rate. If a team were able to rush the ball 30 or more times in a game for all 16 games, that team would finish 13-3. The clock is your real enemy in football, and if you can deny the opposition the time needed to work their offensive magic, then you�re in good shape. Teams that run the ball a lot are able to control the clock, and thus control the game. The Patriots inexcusably ran only 6 times for 5 yards while taking their first loss of the season. For a coach universally fellated as a genius, Bill Belichick seemed ignorant of basic football tactics. Yes, I�m aware the team fell behind early and that Corey Dillon didn�t take a snap, but to abandon the run to such a ludicrous degree is a recipe for failure.

Dr. Tom�s Official Power Rankings
1. Eagles (7-0). They�re the only remaining unbeaten team . . . for now.
2. Steelers (6-1). One down and one to go?
3. Patriots (6-1). The injuries are mounting going into a tough stretch on the schedule.
4. Jets (6-1). Two backs went for 100+ yards against Miami. That�s impressive.
5. Giants (5-2). Since they own the Vikings, it�s only fitting to rank the G-Men higher.
6. Falcons (6-2). Vick looks more comfortable, but that changes from week to week.
7. Vikings (5-2). Bad news: Moss might be out the next two weeks.
8. Chargers (5-3). Drew Brees for MVP? He has a good case at the season�s midpoint.
9. Colts (4-3). Isn�t Tony Dungy supposed to be a defensive coach? Does the Swiss Cheese scheme count?
10. Jaguars (5-3). If they can go 2-2 without Leftwich, they still have a good shot.
11. Broncos (5-3). If it�s possible to throw for an empty 499 yards, Jake Plummer did just that.
12. Chiefs (3-4). They still need some help on defense, but the offense is back on track. It worked last year.
13. Texans (4-3). If Domanick Davis could stay healthy, they�d have quite the trio on offense.
14. Packers (4-4). Brett Favre continues to win while making silly decisions. It won�t always work.
15. Seahawks (4-3). About time they got back in the win column.
16. Rams (4-3). They get a hurting Patriots team this weekend. Could be interesting.
17. Ravens (4-3). Yes, Ray Lewis should've broken TO�s leg for that endzone dance. But it was pretty funny.
18. Lions (4-3). Kevin Jones needs to be a bigger part of their offense.
19. Cowboys (3-4). Eddie George still has a pulse. Who knew?
20. Saints (3-4). Consistency is the key for this maddening, and talented, team.
21. Browns (3-4). They too have a rough schedule in the weeks ahead.
22. Titans (3-5). With their bye and the Jags� injury woe, Tennessee isn�t out of the running.
23. Bengals (2-5). If they can find a consistent gameplan, they might turn in a strong finish.
24. Bucs (2-5). They get the red-hot Chiefs this weekend. Oy.
25. Bills (2-5). Welcome to the Starting RB Club, Willis McGahee.
26. Racists (2-5). I think Mark Brunell has incriminating pictures of Joe Gibbs with various forms of livestock.
27. Cardinals (2-5). Inconsistency plagues them, but there�s progress being made.
28. Panthers (1-6). Exhibit A for the effect of injuries on a formerly good team.
29. Bears (2-5). Craig Krenzel won a national championship. Now the poor soul plays for the Bears.
30. Raiders (2-6). It�s a good thing they brought in a new coaching staff for this season . . .
31. 49ers (1-6). When you can�t beat the Bears, you know you have a problem.
32. Dolphins (1-7). At this point, a decent high school team isn�t �Dolphin safe.�

Picks for Week 9

Last week: A ghastly 6-8. Bloody upsets.
Season to date: 65-35. (If you can�t figure out the percentage, you suck at life)

Arizona 20 at Miami 12, 1:00 p.m.
Dallas 24 at Cincinnati 17, 1:00 p.m.
Kansas City 31 at Tampa 18, 1:00 p.m.
NJ Jets 27 at Buffalo 16, 1:00 p.m.
Oakland 17 at Carolina 16, 1:00 p.m.
Philadelphia 23 at Pittsburgh 26, 1:00 p.m.
DC Metro Area 16 at Detroit 20, 1:00 p.m.
Chicago 14 at NJ Giants 24, 4:05 p.m.
New Orleans 21 at San Diego 27, 4:05 p.m.
Seattle 29 at The City 17, 4:05 p.m.
Houston 20 at Denver 27, 4:15 p.m.
New England 19 at St. Louis 24, 4:15 p.m.
Cleveland 13 at Baltimore 20, 8:30 p.m.
Minnesota 38 at Indianapolis 35, 9:00 p.m. (MNF)
(Open date: Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Tennessee)

As I write this, the election is still very close, with many key states too tight to call. Regardless of who you cast your ballots for, I hope all of you got out and voted today. If the 2000 fiasco showed us nothing else, it taught us that every vote counts. If you haven�t voted yet and there�s still time, make your voice heard. I don�t care who you vote for (vote Bush), but it�s your civic duty (vote Bush) to get out there and vote (Bush), so don�t skimp on it.

Next week: Some midpoint stuff, and some comments on the election, if it�s actually over.

NFL INSTANT REPLAY: Week 8

Dr. Tom Fowler