NFL Instant Replay: Week 11

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NFL Instant Replay: Week 11
By Dr. Tom
Nov 23, 2004, 20:36

NFL INSTANT REPLAY: Week 11

Week 11 may prove to be the scrying glass through which teams see the rest of their seasons. The Chiefs, smarting from a loss that might have been prevented by competent officiating, are out of it in the AFC. The Cowboys, out of it for a while now, are indicating that Drew Henson might get the start Thursday. Carolina refuses to give up on their season, and they�re still mathematically alive in the second-division NFC; winning out just might get them into the playoffs, and what a story that would be. The playoff picture will continue to take shape over the next few weeks, and we�ll cover playoff scenarios when that time draws closer.

Under Review: Week 11

RAVENS~! 30, Cowboys 10. That�s two good games in a row for Kyle Boller. Earlier this season, I made the comment that he was directing the offense like that iceberg directed the Titanic 90 years ago. He�s shown me a lot the last two weeks. The real question is, will the third time be the charm? The Ravens visit definite hostile territory in New England this Sunday, and they�ll be doing it without JAMAL~!, who sprained his ankle in the win over Dallas.

Adding worse injury to injury, JAMAL~!�s replacement, Musa Smith, broke his leg later in the game. The networks cheerfully showed the grisly footage over and over again, treating the injury like it were some random highway fender-bender and they were just rubberneckers. The Ravens� defense played big again, getting another return for a touchdown. Even if the offense struggles against the Pats� defense, the Ravens� playmaking D might be the difference-maker. Dallas finished the game with Drew Henson at QB, who turned in a perfect 6-6 performance (with one TD pass) in relief of the ineffective Vinny Testaverde.

Other Games
Vikings 22, Lions 19. A close, and very necessary, win for Minnesota.
Broncos 34, Saints 13. It�s official: the Saints have given up on the season. And what was Aaron Brooks thinking?
Bucs 35, 49ers 3. Tampa could still make the playoffs in a weak NFC.
Panthers 35, Cardinals 10. Memo to those who gave up the Panthers for dead: not so much.
Titans 18, Jags 15. It�s a good thing Garrard auditioned last week . . .
Bills 37, Rams 17. I demand to know who replaced the 2004 Bills with the 1992 Bills.
Colts 41, Bears 10. Lovie Smith�s postgame speech: �At least they didn�t score 42 on us.�
Steelers 19, Bengals 14. The Bus is still carrying the Steelers, folks, regardless of the Ben-Ro hype.
Jets 10, Browns 7. Butch Davis might finish out the season, but that�ll be all for him.
Chargers 23, Raiders 17. A good win for Team Brees, as the Black Hole is still a tough place to play.
Seahawks 24, Dolphins 17. It was good to see Trent Dilfer get some PT and a win.
Falcons 14, Giants 10. Vick had the upper hand here, but Eli Manning has a bright future ahead of him.
Eagles 28, Racists 6. Bright spots for the Racists: Mark Brunell rode the pine, and . . . that�s all, really.
Packers 16, Texans 13. Another fourth-quarter comeback win for Favre, who shows no signs of slowing.
Patriots 27, Chiefs 19. WHERE was the pass interference call on the pass to Tony Gonzalez? Good grief.

Pass For Show, Run For Dough

In this era of Sports Center highlights and fans with short attention spans, the passing game gets a lot of love. Every week, at least one QB goes en fuego passing the ball, and a couple teams live and die putting the ball in the air. Maybe I�m just an old-school ball-control guy, but I think the running game is still the most important offensive ingredient, since it lets you wear down both your enemies at once: the opposing team, and the game clock.

I�m going to chart some rushing statistics this season (as I did last season, until time constraints forced me to scrap this column) and see how important the running game really is. Each week, I�ll tally up the 100-yard rushers and see how their teams did. Also, I�ll look at teams that ran the ball 30 or more times, and teams that ran it 20 or fewer times, and see how they did.

Week 11:
100-yard rushers: 11
Team record: 8-3

30 or more rushing attempts: 13
Team record: 11-2

20 or fewer rushing attempts: 5
Team record: 0-5

Season to date:
100-yard rushers: 102 *
Team record: 81-20 (80.19%)

30 or more rushing attempts: 124
Team record: 99-25 (79.84%)

20 or fewer rushing attempts: 60
Team record: 8-52 (13.33%)

* In the Jets-Dolphins game in Week 8, both Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan rushed for over 100 yards in New Jersey�s dominating win. Thus, the discrepancy between 100-yard rushers and the team records, which will be off by at least one game all season long. I can live with that, since it means teams are emphasizing the running game.

Dr. Tom�s Official Power Rankings

1. Steelers (9-1). They might as well be telling the opposition they�re running, and it still works.
2. Patriots (9-1). Even with a depleted secondary, they held the Chiefs in check.
3. Eagles (9-1). With the rest of their schedule, home field advantage looks likely. Again.
4. Falcons (8-2). The Vick Show continues to entertain and � more importantly � win.
5. Colts (7-3). Is it just me, or is their defense looking better? That�s scary if it�s true.
6. Broncos (7-3). Reuben Droughns goes crazy again. In other news, the sun rose in the east.
7. Chargers (7-3). Why has no one picked up on the fact that Antonio Gates is the man in the red zone?
8. RAVENS~! (7-3). A big win, but a big test looms ahead in Foxboro.
9. Jets (7-3). At least they managed the clock well this week. And there were no halfback options.
10. Packers (6-4). From the dung heap to a virtual playoff lock in five weeks. Nice job.
11. Jaguars (6-4). Losing at home to the weakened Titans could be a blow to their playoff hopes.
12. Vikings (6-4). It would be a lot easier with Moss in the lineup, but they�re doing OK.
13. Seahawks (6-4). Fans are still waiting for this team to put it all together.
14. Rams (5-5). That was not a playoff team that got drubbed by the Bills.
15. Giants (5-5). They�re probably punting the playoffs by playing Eli, but they need to see what he can do.
16. Bucs (4-6). Don�t count them out in the NFC. A 9-7 team will get into the playoffs over there.
17. Bills (4-6). Who lit a fire under this team? It�s too late for this year, but next year could be promising.
18. Texans (4-6). They�re going to need to post a winning record next year.
19. Lions (4-6). It was good to see Kevin Jones go for 100 yards.
20. Bengals (4-6). They played the Steelers tough, which is a good sign for next year.
21. Bears (4-6). They�re getting there, and they�ll have their starting QB back next year.
22. Titans (4-6). The second most dangerous team to face the rest of the season.
23. Chiefs (3-7). The most dangerous team to play the rest of the season, especially at Arrowhead.
24. Cardinals (4-6). Shaun King isn�t the answer, but I can�t blame Green for experimenting.
25. Saints (4-6). It�s amazing this team has actually won four games.
26. Panthers (3-7). If they win out, they�re very likely in the playoffs. They�re not giving up.
27. Racists (3-7). The defense is good, but they lack an offense to go with it. That�ll change next year.
28. Browns (3-7). Butch Davis is done in Cleveland, even if the announcement comes after the season.
29. Cowboys (3-7). Give Drew the ball, Bill. What is there to lose by seeing what he can do?
30. Raiders (3-7). That win total might not change the rest of the season.
31. Dolphins (1-9). At least their loss to a decent team was close.
32. 49ers (1-9). An embarrassment to professional sports.

Share the Compassion, and the Ganja, Mon

The NFL�s reigning stupid pothead, former Miami RB Ricky Williams, is acting strange again. I�m sure you�re just as surprised as I am. Williams recently turned up at a Northern California school for holistic medicine, according to ESPN.com. Williams is studying the ancient Indian �medicinal� system known as Ayurveda. There is no word on how often Ricky has passed the peace pipe.

"I realized a while back that I have an innate ability to be compassionate," Williams told the San Francisco Chronicle, "and I saw that the strength of compassion is something that healers have and healers use." Williams� agent, Leigh Steinberg maintains that he thinks Williams will return to the NFL next season, and called this latest episode of strange behavior a �sabbatical.�

In other Williams news, his attorney reports that Williams will serve a four-game suspension and then be reinstated by the NFL. The NFL has not yet confirmed this. For his part, Williams is saying he�s done with football and is pursuing holistic medicine. The four-game suspension would run thru the end of this season, and then his Dolphins contract would be in force again.

Sounds like interesting developments could be ahead.

Peyton Place

I got a few emails regarding my contention that I don�t think Peyton Manning will break the record for most TD passes in a season this year. How can I look at his historical numbers when he�s having a career year, I was asked. Well, his historical numbers are pretty consistent, and this is the only season that�s an aberration, so expecting him to return to his career norms is not unreasonable. I still don�t think Manning will break the record, and I�ll admit there�s another factor at work here.

I don�t want him to.

It�s nothing against Manning, who seems like a genial chap and a fellow with a good head on his shoulders. He also has a very funny new commercial, which capitalizes on his folksy charisma. My desire not to see Manning break the record is twofold:

1. As a Baltimorean who remembers very well when the Colts left town under cover of darkness, I don�t want to see them succeed at anything. I�d love it if the team went 0-16 every year. I also don�t want to see any of their players break records, since there�s only one city that should preface the nickname of �Colts� in an NFL record book, and it�s certainly not on the Indiana map.

2. The Colts have been running up the score in recent weeks. This is obviously to get Manning the record. Dan Marino�s Dolphins were different: they didn�t have much of a running game, so the pass was their primary weapon. The Colts have Edgerrin James in their backfield, who just came off a 204-yard game against a Chicago defense that seemed decent before the game started. There�s no reason to be passing in the fourth quarter when you�re up 30+ points. This isn�t college football with its BCS joke, and there�s no point differential that�s important. Play the games the right way, which includes having respect for your opponents, or don�t play it at all. It�s odd to see a Tony Dungy team using such classless tactics. If the Colts are up by four scores in the fourth quarter, Manning shouldn�t even be in the game, let alone trying to pad his stats. For shame.

There you have it. Call me a hater if it helps you sleep, but I don�t want to see a Colt break a record, let alone one who runs up the score. Running up the score is bad form and bad sportsmanship, plain and simple, and I don�t want to see it rewarded with a record.

Tradition is Not Always a Good Thing

Thanksgiving brings us two football games every year, and every year, those games are hosted by Detroit and Dallas. Why? What is the reason these two teams always host he Turkey Day games, other than tradition? I know Dallas is �America�s Team� and has national appeal, but they don�t have to be at home every year. That�s an advantage on the schedule that they can count on every season. Make them travel to Green Bay next year. Tell me Green Bay doesn�t have enough football tradition to host a Thanksgiving Day game.

And what is the appeal of the Lions? They haven�t been watchable since Barry Sanders retired. Compouning the matter, the Colts had to play a road game Sunday, then have a short week and have to travel to Detroit for Thursday�s game. While I have to smile a little because the Colts are getting shafted, it�s unreasonable to ask any team to do something like that. Free up the Thanksgiving games and put good contests on TV. No one cares about the Lions outside of Michigan, so why expose the rest of the country to their lousy team, just because that lousy team has hosted the game for the last 200 years? Rubbish, I say.

Picks for Week 12

Last Week: 13-3
Season to Date: 95-49 (65.97%)

Indianapolis 37 at Detroit 17, 12:37 p.m. (Thanksgiving)
Chicago 14 at Dallas 17, 4:35 p.m. (Thanksgiving)
Cleveland 10 at Cincinnati 23, 1:00 p.m.
Jacksonville 16 at Minnesota 26, 1:00 p.m.
Philadelphia 27 at NJ Giants 19, 1:00 p.m.
San Diego 30 at Kansas City 24, 1:00 p.m.
Tampa 23 at Carolina 21, 1:00 p.m.
Tennessee 13 at Houston 21, 1:00 p.m.
Washington 13 at Pittsburgh 24, 1:00 p.m.
New Orleans 21 at Atlanta 27, 4:05 p.m.
Baltimore 20 at New England 17, 4:15 p.m. (UPSET~!)
Buffalo 22 at Seattle 28, 4:15 p.m.
Miami 3 at The City 2, 4:15 p.m.
NJ Jets 21 at Arizona 16, 4:15 p.m.
Oakland 12 at Denver 28, 8:30 p.m.
St. Louis 23 at Green Bay 27, 9:00 p.m. (MNF)

Next week: The 29 fans who actually tuned into the Dolphins-49ers game are publicly ostracized and forced into counseling.

Have a happy Thanksgiving.

NFL INSTANT REPLAY: Week 11

Dr. Tom Fowler