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Al's MLB Column for February 12th
By Alan Keiper
Feb 12, 2005, 10:47

Every year around this time, I end up picking up a handful of the magazine style season previews produced by the Sporting News, Street & Smith, and other publications. More and more, I find myself amazed by the lack of credible insight some of these publications produce. For the benefit of the educated baseball fan base, I thought I would look around and shed some light upon some of the popular misconceptions floating around the baseball world, as we approach Spring Training.

Before I dig too far, I would like to share a quote from last year's Fantasy Baseball issue, produced by the staff of CBSSportsline.com. Writer Tristan M. Cockcroft wrote about 20 lessons learned from the 2003 baseball season. My favorite was number seven...

The contract-year theory is not a myth.
Some believe baseball players play their hearts out under any circumstances, but there is too much evidence to suggest that most don't pick up their performance a notch in the year which they're due for free agency. In 2003, Javy Lopez, Sidney Ponson and Gary Sheffield enjoyed career years before each testing (sic) the free-agent waters this winter. Further evidence that contract years have an impact on players' mental approach: Miguel Tejada found it exceedingly difficult to perform at his MVP level early last year with contract talks on his mind; it took him half the year before he finally regained his focus.

Among players entering their contract years in 2004 are Boston's Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez, the Cubs' Kerry Wood, Kansas City's Carlos Beltran, Oakland's Eric Chavez, and the Yankees' Mariano Rivera and Javier Vazquez. Huge years are hardly guaranteed for any of these seven, but this might be a good reason to go the extra buck for them on Draft Day.

Put your feelings aside on the "contract-year theory" for just a few moments. I like the justification used here. If a player had a big year, it proves our theory. If a player did not have a big year, it is due to the pressures of our theory. You cannot lose! Except of course that of the seven mentioned as good buys due to the theory, two had bad seasons, two more had sub par seasons, and only Eric Chavez and Carlos Beltran truly stepped up. And Eric Chavez signed an extension before the season. That is hardly a slam-dunk.

Friends, regardless of what theories do and do not work, you need solid proof before you buy into them. That in a nutshell is the essence of Moneyball. We do not reject clubhouse chemistry and intangibles because they do not exist. They exist in some form, and in fact, it is ludicrous to claim they exist in no way, shape, or form whatsoever. But we have inadequate methods of measuring such things, and in their absence, sportswriters overstate their importance to an absurd degree.

If you are looking for a good find on draft day, do not accept the usual voodoo mumbo-jumbo that your anti-Sabermetric columnist would have you swallow. Instead, look for statistics. Look for the otherwise healthy, young player who had an off year in 2004, but a career record of production. Look for the pitcher with an average ERA, but outstanding peripherals. You want a value pattern? Players as a group increase in value through their twenties, and decline rapidly after 30. It is as simple as that. No "contract-year theory" is needed, just a little common sense.

MYTH 1: The Angels have a dominant team.

I honestly think the writers are getting carried away with this one. The Angels had a gold glove center fielder sitting at first base, and a hole in center field. Of course, the obvious solution is to buy a new center fielder (Steve Finley) for $15 Million over two years, and keep Darin Erstad at first base. The Angels then signed Orlando Cabrera (.316 career OBP) for four years, $32 Million, and non-tendered David Eckstein (.347 career OBP). In addition, they lost Jose Guillen and Troy Glaus from the starting lineup. The Angels' offense finished seventh in the American League, and I see nothing here to indicate an improvement. Rookies Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson may help, but Kotchman is injury prone, and McPherson could contribute 200 strikeouts.

The pitching staff does not show much dominance. Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey both contributed ERAs below the league average last season. Paul Byrd is a nice pitcher, but he has suffered from injury issues. That leaves Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar. Colon's much better than his 5.01 ERA indicates. He gave up 26 of his 38 home runs before the All-Star break. The bullpen is good, but the loss of Troy Percival will hurt.

The Angels are not a bad team, don't get me wrong. But when I look at this team, I simply cannot see the second best team in baseball, as the Sporting News seems to think. I see solid division title contenders, but little more. They overspent dearly to fill needs that did not exist. While the hitting is much trumpeted, this club actually finished 10th in slugging percentage and sixth in on base percentage last year. They finished dead last in base on balls. Think about this statistic. VLADIMIR GUERRERO led this team in walks last year. Take away the intentional walks, and Chone Figgins led the team with 49. This club has no patience, and cannot hit for power. I am sorry, but they are not a dominant team.

MYTH 2: The Oakland Athletics are doomed without their big three.

This is just my personal observation. Sportswriters love established big league players, because they are easy to predict. Tim Hudson holds a career 3.30 ERA over 1,240 innings. Mark Mulder holds a career 3.92 ERA over 1,003 career innings. It is reasonable to expect the same production (more on that in a moment). Dan Meyer, Danny Haren, and Joe Blanton have 128.7 career innings pitched among the three of them. Sportswriters do not have a reasonable expectation of what these three men will accomplish, so at some point it becomes easier simply to dismiss them.

Writers are overestimating the effect losing Hudson and Mulder will have on the Athletics. Mulder compiled a 6.13 ERA after the All-Star break, winning only five games in fifteen starts. He lost four consecutive starts to close the season. The Oakland Athletics missed the division title by a single game. By the last game, starting Mulder was a mere formality before the A's could pull the trigger on Joe Blanton in the bullpen. If Mulder's ability to win a game could not be trusted then, as the Athletics hung in the race, how can it be trusted now? With Mulder ineffective, the Athletics continued to compete. I see no reason they cannot now.

Losing Tim Hudson will hurt, as Hudson is one of the game's elite pitchers right now. But the pitchers coming up have real talent. Dan Haren holds an 8.77 K/9 rate, along with just walking 1.63 batters per nine innings. He looked prone to the home run in Memphis, but it is difficult to tell how much of that was due to pitching in the Pacific Coast League. If he is homer prone, then the Oakland Coliseum is a good place for Haren to pitch. Haren struggled his first year in St. Louis, but posted better numbers last season when the Cardinals gave him an opportunity.

Dan Meyer breezed through the minors last season, pitching 126 innings between AA and AAA and striking out more than a batter an inning, walking just 37, and giving up only seven home runs. Meyer is rated as a top prospect, but I worry that he might be rushed at this point. Still, his ratios are excellent throughout his minor league career. Joe Blanton is another fine pitching prospect. He struck out 143 batters and walked 34 in 176 innings in the Pacific Coast League last season. He keeps the ball down and rarely surrenders a walk. With the Athletics' excellent infield defense, Blanton should post at least a league average ERA in the majors.

There are other names to keep an eye out for. Seth Etherton struck out 110 batters in 112 innings in AAA Louisville, walking just 32. Etherton looks fully recovered from arm surgery that cost him all of 2001 and most of 2002. He could surprise us and grab a rotation slot. Plus, Justin Duchscherer, Keiichi Yabu, and Juan Cruz are available for spot start duty, if necessary.

It is true that the rotation will suffer some decline, but let's look at the rest of the team. Much of Oakland's concerns last year lied with their bullpen, which struggled early. Arthur Rhodes proved inadequate as a closer, forcing the Athletics to trade for Octavio Dotel. Oakland last season converted 56% of save opportunities, finishing twelfth in the American League, ahead of only Cleveland and Kansas City. That is a lot of late leads out the window, and a big reason why Barry Zito and especially Rich Haren won only eleven games apiece. This year, Dotel, Chad Bradford, and Ricardo Rincon are joined by Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero. Jim Mecir (0-5 despite a 3.59 ERA), and Arthur Rhodes (5.12 ERA in 38.7 IP, 5 blown saves) are gone. Plus, with Jairo Garcia and Huston Street on the rise, the Athletics have more than enough bullpen depth.

The Oakland offense has struggled the last few seasons, as Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Miguel Tejada all left the team for free agency at some time. The Athletics' 793 runs scored ranked just ninth in the American League. This year, the Athletics look poised to produce the best offensive team they have enjoyed for quite some time. Former All-Star Jason Kendall replaces Damian Miller as the starting catcher. Despite a gruesome injury in 1999, Kendall is durable, playing more than 145 games every year the last five seasons. Kendall boasts a .306 career batting average, and .387 career OBP. Keith Ginter and Mark Ellis should replace the unproductive Marco Scutaro at second base. Scutaro hit .273, but his sixteen walks amounted to a lowly .297 OBP.

The fact that the Athletics could start as many as three rookies in their rotation keeps me from making the A's the favorite in the AL West. But this club is a contender, right now.

MYTH 3: The New York Yankees will dominate baseball.

The predictions in the Sporting News' preview surprised me in regards to the Yankees. Of six writers polled, all six believed the Yankees would win the AL East, and all six picked the Yankees to win the American League pennant. Only one of six felt the Yankees would lose the World Series. It is amazing what a big lefty can do for your playoff aspirations.

This is not a column to bash the Yankees' playoff hopes. They will likely reach the playoffs. But many writers, particularly Buster Olney, think the Yankees will win 105-110 games, and establish themselves as a historically great team. I am sorry, but they are simply not that good. The Yankees' 2004 Pythagorean record was 89-73, which is downright pedestrian. Their 101 wins were due to good luck and the dominant relief pitching of Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon. Quite simply, the Yankees need more production if they were to become a dominant team. The starting lineup added Tino Martinez and Tony Womack, but lost Miguel Cairo's production. Cairo was not going to match his line, and Tony Womack has never produced a line as good as Miguel Cairo's in his life.

The only real improvement the Yankees could receive is a return to prominence from Jason Giambi. However, the history for players of Giambi's ability is not good. Of Giambi's most similar players at age 33, only one played more than 3 seasons. Mo Vaughn is Giambi's most similar player, and he hit 29 home runs before retiring. Tim Salmon is number two, and he is out for this season as well. Klesko is number three, and since he is the same age, we cannot draw comparisons. Jim Edmonds is a promising comp at number four. Perhaps the Yankees have a solution in center field? Hal Trosky was finished at Giambi's age. Number 6, Ted Kluszewski, played 279 games but added just 24 home runs. Danny Tartabull played just three more career games. Then at eight through ten, we have Tino Martinez, Kent Hrbek, and Fred McGriff. The four retired players on Giambi's comp list average 15 more home runs after age 33. Fred McGriff, Tino Martinez, and Jim Edmonds are exceptions, but they also did not lose a season due to severe health problems.

Moving on, the Yankees' bench is an absolute disgrace to a championship squad. The Yankees have Ruben Sierra, John Flaherty, Bubba Crosby, Felix Escalona, Homer Bush, Andy Phillips, Doug Glanville, Rey Sanchez, Ferdin Tejada, Damian Rolls, Colin Porter, and a handful of non-roster invitees to choose from. Of all those players, only ONE (Colin Porter) produced an OBP on the good side of .300 last season. And Porter got his .314 OBP in 35 at bats, without drawing a single walk. A sub-.300 OBP is unacceptable. Yet somehow, the Yankees will create a great team with an entire bench of these guys?

The pitching staff looks slightly better, but there is no depth here whatsoever. The Yankees acquired Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright to fill out the rotation. However, they also lost Jon Lieber (4.33 ERA, 176.7 IP) and Orlando Hernandez (3.30 ERA, 84.7 IP). Carl Pavano had a career season last year, but his peripherals do not match his performance, he has a league average career ERA, and he is moving from a pitcher friendly National League park into the American League. I do not think it is unreasonable to think that having Carl Pavano equals Jon Lieber, and little else.

Jaret Wright had his first good season last year for Atlanta. He also boasts a sub-league average career ERA, and has a history of injury problems. Wright has never pitched more than 200 innings in a season, and his 186.3 innings last season were more than he pitched the previous four seasons COMBINED. To say Jaret Wright is a risk is an understatement. Then the Yankees have Kevin Brown, and his 4.09 ERA last season. After Brown's postseason performance, many Yankee fans have soured. I think Brown will rebound, but it is not certain that Brown will match last year's performance.

Randy Johnson is a stud pitcher, but he is 41, has knee problems, and the Yankees only get to use him every five games. Javier Vazquez won fourteen games despite his struggles. Looking over stats, it�s reasonable to expect Johnson to allow as few as half as many runs as Vazquez allowed last season. Running the numbers, if we shaved 50 runs off the Yankees' record last season, that would amount to a six game improvement. That is significant, but it also assumes everything goes right.

Of course, the rotation was not even the Yankees' real problem in the postseason last year. In games four through six of the fateful ALCS, the Yankees' pitching staff kept the Yankees in the game. Games four and five saw the Yankees AHEAD in the late innings, and in game six, the Yankees had the winning run at home plate (and with Tony Clark at bat, the bad bench monster strikes again). But the talking heads insisted the Yankees needed a "go to guy" in the rotation, and ace you knew could pitch game seven. So the Yankees needed an ace? That leaves me to wonder what they were thinking when they signed Mike Mussina (the Orioles' ace), traded for Javier Vazquez (the Expos' ace), and traded for Kevin Brown (the Dodgers' ace). Mussina has a 3.16 ERA in 119.7 career postseason innings. An ace pitcher is a nice tag, but it does not reveal any superhuman qualities. We found that in Kevin Brown last season.

Victory in baseball is not the result of superhuman qualities, or of some aura that resonates from Derek Jeter. It is the result of talented players playing better than everyone else in the league. Why haven't the Yankees won? Because the other 29 teams are trying like hell to defeat them. Victory is not a matter of "wanting it," or simply willing yourself to prevail. The Yankees' front office seems to think that character outshines ability to the point where you can win baseball games without talented bench players and reserves, as long as they have enough character. As long as the Yankees maintain that philosophy, they can never field a great team. If they hold on to that thinking too long, they will find they have a bad team much sooner than they expect.

MYTH 4: Leo Mazzone and Bobby Cox work miracles with pitchers.

In 1996, the Atlanta Braves allowed just 648 runs, first in the National League. The next season, the Braves allowed just 581 runs, again first in the league by a sizeable margin. Last season, the Braves' pitching staff finished seventh in walks, and twelfth in strikeouts. They finished third in runs allowed. In 2003, the Braves' pitching staff finished tenth in walks, eleventh in strikeouts, and ninth in runs scored. In 2002, the pitching finished eighth in walks, tenth in strikeouts, and FIRST in least runs allowed. The Braves have not featured particularly great peripherals in recent years, yet their record of preventing runs is excellent. Why?

My theory is that the pitching staff is not as great as it appears, at least in recent years. The real factor here is the Atlanta DEFENSE. Think about this, the Atlanta Braves since 1997 have featured one of the greatest center fielders in baseball history in Andruw Jones. The Braves have also benefited from superb defense from the middle infield. ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters recently tabbed Rafael Furcal as having the best infield arm in baseball. As long as they have that defense, their pitching will continue to look good, and Leo Mazzone will be hailed as a miracle worker.

MYTH 5: The Astros are toast.

Last season, I picked the Astros to win the National League Central. I was wrong. It did not seem so odd at the time, however. So what has changed since then? The Astros have Chris Burke and Jason Lane starting instead of Jeff Kent and Richard Hidalgo, and Wade Miller is gone from the starting rotation. Is that enough to drop the Astros from contention? Not many people realize that Chris Burke is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender. Sometimes, we have a habit of looking at what a team lost, and we forget what the team still has. The Astros should get Andy Pettitte back this season, and he will form a front three with Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt to form a front three as good as you will find anywhere in the league.

Lance Berkman will miss the first month, but when he comes back, he will be a devastating offensive force. Jeff Bagwell is not the Bagwell of the '90s, but many teams get worse production from first base then the Astros got from Bagwell last season (.266/.377/.465). Craig Biggio hit 24 home runs last year. Morgan Ensberg will rebound. Jason Lane is one of the unheralded bench players in baseball. Chris Burke posted a .315/.396/.507 line in the PCL last season, with 37 stolen bases. The Astros are not division favorites, but they are not finished, and I would not be surprised to see this club make the playoffs once again.

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