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Dr. Tom's NFL Preview, Part 1: The AFC
Posted by Dr. Tom on Aug 12, 2003, 19:36
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NFL PREVIEW: THE AFC
Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers showed us all that a coach can give a franchise that one last kick in the pants it needs to join the elite. This year, the Bucs have as good a chance to get to the Super Bowl as any other team. Their opponents last year, the Oakland Raiders, again have a team of greybeards looking to make one last run. Perennial playoff contenders like the Pittsburgh Steelers hope to step up and play for the big prize, and teams that didn�t factor into the playoff race last year, like the Buffalo Bills, hope to make an impact and surprise some people. And down in the Lone Star State, Bill Parcells again looks to work his magic for a team that certainly needs someone to wave an enchanted wand.
It must be football season again.
Training camp is underway, exhibition games are being played, and only one thing is certain about this coming season:
The Cincinnati Bengals have already been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
Yes, I know that was a cheap shot. But it�s TRUE.
This NFL preview will be broken down into two parts, with each part focusing on one of the conference. Part one will examine the AFC; part two, the NFC. I�m biased for and against certain players and teams, so that will probably factor into my looks at each team. I might also toss a few nuggets out there for any fantasy football players among you.
AFC East
New England 11-5
Buffalo 10-6
Miami 9-7
NY Jets 7-9
AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cleveland 9-7
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 4-12
AFC South
Indianapolis 10-6
Tennessee 9-7
Jacksonville 5-11
Houston 3-13
AFC West
Oakland 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 9-7
Denver 8-8
Wild cards: Buffalo, San Diego
Team-by-Team Breakdown:
New England Patriots
Last season: 9-7, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: CB Tyrone Poole, LB Roosevelt Colvin, S Rodney Harrison
Major Losses: WR Donald Hayes, CB Terrell Buckley, TE Cam Cleeland
The Patriots surprised some people last season, as coach Bill Belichick shed his conservative label by opening up the offense. The Pats employed a lot of spread formations last season, finishing 10th in the league in points scored. QB Tom Brady, fully removed from the shadow of Drew Bledsoe, threw for 28 touchdowns, but his performance wasn�t enough. The running game let the Patriots down, as Antowain Smith failed to recapture what he had shown during the previous season�s Super Bowl campaign. The biggest letdown, though, was the defense, stingy the year before, which turned porous at the worst times.
The defense was the biggest reason why the Patriots missed the playoffs last season, so they made several moves this offseason to address it. Poole, Colvin, and Harrison all have solid reputations coming to Foxboro with them. They join Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, first-round pick Ty Warren, and others in forming a revamped defense that looks to improve markedly over last season.
I think the defense will be improved, and I also think it has to be. Brady�s a solid quarterback, but Belichick has indicated he�s going to tone the offense down this year, so don�t look for gaudy numbers again. David Patten, Troy Brown, Dedric Ward, and Christian Fauria provide reliable targets for Brady�s passes; the question is who will be taking the handoffs. Antowain Smith seems to have cemented himself into Belichick�s doghouse, which is a shame considering he could put up 1200-1300 yards as the feature back. Smith will share time with Kevin Faulk, whose pass-catching ability makes him the more versatile back, but he�s not exactly exciting. If the two can combine for 1600 total yards, then Brady and the passing game will find life easier. They key to this team�s success, though, will be its defense, and while it�s not going to be the best unit in the league, look for the Pats� D to be solid.
Buffalo Bills
Last season: 8-8, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: LB Takeo Spikes, WR Bobby Shaw, DT Sam Adams, RB Olandis Gary, SS Chad Cota.
Major Losses: WR Peerless Price, TE Jay Riemersma, RB Larry Centers.
Last year�s offense, definitely the strength of the team, loses WR Peerless Price. Price became a frequent and valuable target of QB Drew Bledsoe, freeing up Eric Moulds to roam the other side of the field. This year, Price is in Atlanta, but the Swiss Cheese Defense has been upgraded. Only five teams yielded more points than the Bills last season, and the fact that they still managed to finish 8-8 is a testament to their offense.
A key player on offense this year will be RB Travis Henry. Henry had a good season last year, except for one very important stat: he fumbled the ball eleven times. Eleven. Eight of them were lost, and keep in mind that if an NFL back fumbles more than five times a year, he has a problem. Henry lost eight fumbles last season. Buffalo brought in Olandis Gary to back him up this year, and Willis McGahee is waiting in the wings for next season. If Henry can�t hang onto the ball, he should put glue on his gloves, or else he might find himself playing elsewhere next season. Josh Reed will step into Peerless Price�s spot and look to draw coverage away from Moulds. He won�t have the season Price did last year, but he�ll be productive.
The defense is where the Bills made their vital upgrades, though. Run-stopping specialist Sam Adams joins the defensive line and immediately gives the unit a monstrous presence in the middle of the field. Quick off the ball and almost impossible to move, Adams often handles two offensive linemen at once. That will give newly-signed LB Takeo Spikes and incumbent LB London Fletcher room to roam the field behind him. A talented player, Spikes had some good years for the Bengals, and this year, he should finally see his skills rewarded with a winning season and a playoff berth. Nate Clements� six interceptions paced the secondary last season, but I don�t see that unit being much better than average. The Bills should be good against the run, though, which is more than half the battle in the NFL, and their resurgent defense will vault them into a wild card spot.
Now if only Gregg Williams could grow a spine for calling plays, this team could really be onto something.
Miami Dolphins
Last Year: 9-7, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: LB Junior Seau, QB Terrell Buckley, QB Brian Griese
Major Losses: WR Dedric Ward
Missed opportunity. That can be the Dolphins� credo from last year. They looked like a lock for the playoffs early in the season, until a midseason swoon coupled with QB Jay Fiedler�s injury doomed their season. Ray Lucas provided some of the worst QB play seen in this galaxy, and even the running of Ricky Williams and the strong play of the Miami defense couldn�t overcome the colossal suck factor emanating from under center. Lucas is gone, managing to duck a hail of beer bottles out of town, and has been replaced as the backup QB by former Denver starter Brian Griese.
This is Jay Fielder�s offense, though, for better or worse. So far in camp, there isn�t even the hint of a QB controversy: Fielder is the starter, and Griese is expected to play his part in providing an effective 1-2 punch. Ricky Williams is obviously the big cog in the offense, as he looks to improve on last season, which saw him gain over 1800 yards on the ground. Williams is reported to be leaner, stronger, and quicker, and he showed last year that he has put the mental problems of his past behind him. He�s my pick to lead the league in rushing this season, and I wouldn�t be surprised at all to see him crack the 2000-yard mark. The rest of the offense, though, leaves something to be desired. Fiedler�s a reasonably effective QB, but his best trait is his ability to stay within himself and not make too many errors. TE Randy McMichael, hyped a lot last season, disappeared quickly. Chris Chambers and Derrius Thompson lead a pedestrian receiving corps.
Defense will be the key to the Dolphins� wins this year. Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and Junior Seau lead the front seven, while Patrick Surtain, Sam Madison, Brock Marion, and Sammy Knight provide a who�s-who back four. Expect the defense to be stingy and to certainly rank among the top units in the league. The problem is that the offense isn�t going to give them much margin for error. Buffalo, with a worse (but still solid-looking) defense and a much better offense, should take the wild-card spot from the Dolphins, simply because their offense will allow them to win more games.
New York Jets
Last Season: 9-7, made the playoffs
Major Additions: WR Curtis Conway, DT Chester McGlockton, DB Tyrone Carter
Major Losses: WR Laveranues Coles, KR Chad Morton, G Randy Thomas, FB Richie Anderson
After a woeful start, the Jets picked themselves up by their bootstraps and ground their way into the playoffs. Veteran QB Vinny Testaverde was passed over by youngster Chad Pennington, and the effect on the team was both immediate and enormous. Coach Herman Edwards never gave up on his squad, even when everyone else had, and his faith was rewarded. This year, the team unquestionably belongs to Pennington, who quickly made a name for himself as an accurate and highly-rated passer last season. Curtis Martin returns to anchor the running game. He�s starting to become a greybeard, so when he can�t go, backup (and former TERP~!) LaMont Jordan has proven a capable fill-in.
The problem is, this year�s offense isn�t going to look the same. The gaping void is at wide receiver, where speedster Laveranues Coles turned in a hell of a season before departing, for an obscene signing bonus, for the Redskins. Coles always had the speed to be great, but last year, he put it all together: his hands were reliable, his routes were crisper than before, and he was a presence in the red zone. Trying to fill that void will be Chargers castoff Curtis Conway, who�s doing the pigskin equivalent of trying to fill a Yeti footprint with an infant�s foot. Conway and Wayne Chrebet just aren�t going to strike fear in many opposing secondaries; Chrebet, for his part, has been in a consistent decline for four years now. The most exciting option looks like third receiver Santana Moss, who has a real chance to step up and shine this year.
DE John Abraham returns to anchor what should be a solid if unspectacular defense. First-round pick Dewayne Robertson is currently penciled in as the starter at DT, with free agent Chester McGlockton to back him up. The problem with this defense is that a lot of guys are around 29-31 years old, so this is as good as most of the players are going to get. With the new offensive schemes the Jets are considering, that won�t be enough. Herman Edwards has talked about making the passing game more vertical, which strikes me as a huge mistake. Chad Pennington is accurate, but he lacks a strong arm, and was the highest-rated passer in the league running the offense that was in place last season. Why tamper with success, especially when it involves asking someone to cast aside something that worked very well for him for something he�s not really capable of doing? If the Jets stick with this plan all year, expect it to be a long season in the Meadowlands.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season: 10-5-1, made the playoffs
Major Additions: None
Major Losses: QB Kordell Stewart, S Lee Flowers
The Steelers made no significant acquisitions in the offseason, but then again, the team is strong enough that they could afford not to. The club�s moves shored up their depth, leaving coach Bill Cowher virtually the same team he commanded to the division title last year. The defense � physically tough, but surprisingly porous with respect to giving up points � returns almost intact. The offensive side of the ball is where the biggest question mark in camp waits to be answered.
Jerome Bettis or Amos Zereoue? The Bus or Zero? Pittsburgh�s starting RB is still in question heading into the season. Jerome Bettis has had some very impressive years for the Steelers, but recently, The Bus has been in the shop with assorted injuries. In that time, Zereoue has shown himself to be someone who deserves a starting gig. He doesn�t have the bruising power that Bettis has, but his smaller frame belies a very strong runner, who can make moves and cuts Bettis can�t. Zereoue is also a good receiver out of the backfield, where his increased mobility can make screen passes more effective. Cowher might stick with the veteran and give Bettis the nod out of camp, but it�s my opinion that Zereoue deserves to get the job. The rest of the offense returns from last season: wideouts Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, and Antwaan Randle El form a threesome defenses have to constantly worry about. Mark Bruener is a reliable tight end, playing at the end of a solid offensive line. XFL ubermensch Tommy Maddox will be dishing out the passes. I think he does a poor job of protecting the ball, but the Steelers� offense is one Maddox can move down the field quite well.
Pittsburgh�s 3-4 defense will again keep them in most games. This isn�t the Steel Curtain defense of bygone eras, but it is a tough, grinding D that opposing offenses will have to wear down to beat. Joey Porter, Kendrell Bell, and Jason Gildon anchor the four linebackers, while end Kimo von Oelhoffen leads the three-man defensive line. The Steelers play the 3-4 to the most of its versatility, using their strong linebackers to blitz, stuff the run, and cover the pass while lining up just about all over the field. There�s some bend in this unit, so they�ll give up about twenty points a game, but the strength of the offense covers the multitude of sins.
Cleveland Browns
Last Season: 9-7, made the playoffs
Major Additions: LB Barry Gardner
Major Losses: All three starting linebackers.
The clock was crueler to no team than the Browns last season, as their last-gasp drive against Pittsburgh came up painfully short. A few better decisions along the way likely would have reversed the result (memo to Butch Davis: if you want to run out the clock, RUN THE BALL!), but the Browns need to look ahead, not dwell on last year�s mistakes. This year�s team promises to be different, with all three starting linebackers gone, and fourth LB Jamir Miller sent packing along with them. The biggest difference, of course, might come at quarterback.
A scrimmage drew 38,000 people to see this year�s hottest QB controversy play itself out. Tim Couch vs. Kelly Holcomb is closer than it needs to be, in this scribe�s not-so-humble opinion. Couch has always been overrated, and hasn�t shown himself to be a great NFL QB. Kelly Holcomb, on the other hand, not blessed with a this-guy�s-the-franchise pedigree, is a true football player. His decisions are better than Couch�s, his average arm is at least as strong, and he possesses intangibles (like leadership, poise, and tenacity) that Couch does not. His teammates want Holcomb to get the job, as do the team�s fans. The coaching staff, however, still seems to be leaning toward Couch. The healthy financial investment the team has made in Couch might be the biggest factor there; it�s also possible the show of support could be just that: a show. Whoever gets the nod at QB will be sharing the backfield with William Green. Green led the Browns in rushing each week after their bye, finishing strong with 178 yards against Atlanta. Jamel White has settled nicely into his niche as the third-down back. At receiver, Cleveland has about 300 guys who could potentially start. Veteran Kevin Johnson is the leader of the group, but two youngsters emerged as the team�s go-to guys last year: Quincy Morgan and Dennis Northcutt. With Holcomb at the helm, this is a strong offense; with Couch under center ... not so much.
Defensively, the Browns may have some adventures. Starting linebackers Darren Hambrick, Earl Holmes, and helmet-doffing Dwayne Rudd are all gone. Second-round pick Chaun Thompson, from small West Texas A&M, has some sizable shoes to fill in this year's retooled defensive scheme. Barry Gardner will play in the middle of the field, leaving the other two positions to youngsters like Thompson, 2002 draft choice Kevin Bentley, Ben Taylor, and Brant Boyer. Coming off a season in which the defense allowed twenty points a game, this year�s unit will look to improve on that. Given the inexperience at two important positions, that might well be an uphill battle, putting more pressure on an offense yet to settle on its leader. The secondary looks like a shambles at this point, especially considering the loss of Corey Fuller to a division rival. If the defense doesn�t step up and play, the Browns may find themselves in third place.
Baltimore RAVENS~!
Last Season: 7-9, tragically missed the playoffs.
Major Additions: CB Corey Fuller, WRs Frank Sanders and Marcus Robinson
Major Losses: QB Jeff Blake, FB Sam Gash
Ravens! Ravens! Ravens! RAVENS~! RAVENS~!
No, I�m not a homer ... why do you ask?
Last year was supposed to be the Ravens� season in Salary Cap Hell, the price they paid for winning the Super Bowl in 2000 and going for it again the next season. They were supposed to be an afterthought in the playoff race. When Ray Lewis suffered what would be a season-ending shoulder injury, the death dirge was played even louder. Reports of the Ravens� demise, however, were greatly exaggerated. They ended up missing the playoffs, but their final 7-9 record was two games better than they had any right to expect. The team learned a lot about themselves last year, especially in the absence of their spiritual leader, and they look to take those lessons and improve on them this year.
With Jeff Blake gone to Arizona (good riddance, I say), the offense is again at the control of Chris Redman. Redman played fairly well last year before back injuries torpedoed the rest of his season. Healthy this year, he looks to ply his trade again on short and medium-range passes. Not blessed with a tremendous downfield arm, Redman�s gift is accuracy. Travis Taylor, who did not click at all with Redman last year, will be the primary target at wideout, hopefully possessed of better chemistry with his QB. The other side of the field will be manned by either veteran newcomers Frank Sanders or Marcus Robinson. Personally, I�d put Robinson out there for his height and speed, and use Sanders as a slot receiver. Todd Heap, the best tight end in the AFC, will again be Redman�s safety valve. The offense is going to live and die with Jamal Lewis, though. Returning healthy from knee surgery last year, Lewis racked up 1300 yards on the ground. This year, he should be even better. I�m going to pencil him in for 1500 yards and a dozen touchdowns. Chris Redman, if healthy, is going to throw for 3000 yards. You read that here first, and this may well be the only place you read that.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ray Lewis returns to patrol the middle of the field like no one else. The linebacking corps is scary good: Lewis and Ed Hartwell in the middle, flanked by pass-rushing specialists Peter Boulware and rookie Terrell Suggs. Suggs, for now, is playing as a pass-rushing end, but Cornell Brown won't hold him off forever. The secondary is also solid, with Chris McAlister lining up at cornerback, beside Browns expatriate Corey Fuller. Gary Baxter, McAlister�s partner in crime last year, moves to free safety, where he should look more comfortable. Playmaker Ed Reed mans the strong safety position, where he contributed hard hits, big plays, and two blocked punts as a rookie. Reed is going to be a STAR in this league, and that�s not a homer comment. The defensive line, so good during the Super Bowl campaign, is the weakness of this lot. Anthony Weaver and Adalius Thomas are decent ends, but they won�t make anyone write home to Mom with glowing praise. Kelly Gregg is a serviceable nose tackle, but he�s not going to be confused with immovable run-stoppers Sam Adams (whom I was really hoping the team would sign) and Tony Siragusa. If the defense is going to be an elite unit � and the potential is there � then the back eight will have to take the lead while the front three play over their heads.
By the way, if Cleveland goes with Tim Couch and sticks with him too long, then the Browns and Ravens will switch positions in the division. Go Tim.
Cincinnati Bengals
Last Season: 2-14, league laughingstock, missed the playoffs yet again
Major Additions: LB Kevin Hardy, DT John Thornton, TE Reggie Kelly
Major Losses: LB Takeo Spikes, FB Lorenzo Neal, T Richmond Webb
Marvin Lewis, architect of the Ravens� Super Bowl defense, finally gets a shot at coaching in the NFL. That�s normally good news, but being handed the keys to the biggest wasteland in the NFL isn�t a normal situation. The Bengals feature a cretin as their owner, and Mike Brown is a cretin able to delude himself to the point he thinks he�s a capable NFL general manager. To borrow a phrase from Mark Cuban, I wouldn�t let Brown run a Dairy Queen. Hell, the team JUST hired a scouting department, at Lewis' insistence. It is into this cesspool of suck which Marvin Lewis wanders. He�s going to be fired up about getting a chance to be a head coach, but can he remove the stigma of losing that�s followed this franchise for a decade?
He can, but it won�t happen overnight. In the meantime, though, the Bengals certainly have some talent to build around. RB Corey Dillon is always good for 1300 yards by season�s end, even if his output is inconsistent along the way. Considering the Bengals have a good offensive line, Dillon should be able to manage the consistency that has eluded him thus far. If his days of rushing for 190 yards one week, then 23 the next week can be put behind him, he can easily be a 1500-1800-yard gainer on the ground. At receiver, Chad Johnson had a breakout year last season, and while his prediction of 1800 yards for himself is inflated, 1200 looks like a lock. The frustrating Peter Warrick will get one more chance to show why he was a first-round pick, lining up predominately as a slot receiver. Distributing the ball will be Jon Kitna, who will start the whole year if the franchise has a whit of common sense. Carson Palmer is their future at QB, but to me, he�s overrated based on one good year at college. It�s not that he won�t be good in the NFL � and I think he�ll be good, but not great � but he should soak up as much of the system as he can from the bench. Even if Kitna gets hurt, Shane Matthews should play instead of Palmer. There�s no need to rush your franchise draft pick into action.
Defensively, the Bengals have a talent void to fill with the loss of LBTakeo Spikes, and it doesn�t look like they�ll be filling it this year. John Thornton and Justin Smith anchor the defensive line, which should be adequate and that�s about it. Brian Simmons wasn�t able to escape from Spikes� shadow; with Spikes gone, he and veteran newcomer Kevin Hardy will lead the linebacking trio. The secondary is nothing special, and if Tory James doesn�t have a good year, it could be downright miserable. The bulk of the Bengals� talent is on the offensive side of the ball, which has to vex a defensive mind like Lewis. Give him a couple years to draft some defensive players and a shrewd free-agent move or two � presuming the Bengals are actually capable of such � and Lewis will have this perennial loser headed in the right direction. All they have to do is support him and give him time.
Indianapolis Colts
Last Season: 10-6, made the playoffs.
Major Additions: None
Major Losses: WR Qadry Ismail, LB Mike Peterson, DE Chukie Nwokorie
As a native of Baltimore, you have no idea how livid it makes me to have to type �Indianapolis Colts.� At least we got some measure of satisfaction when Robert Irsay died. I'd still like to Napalm his grave, just to be sure the old bastard really is dead.
The Colts IMPLODED~! last year, as QB Peyton Manning and K Mike Vanderjagt traded barbs in the offseason. Vanderjagt accused Manning of choking in big games, while Manning called the kicker an idiot and shrugged off his remarks. The truth hurts, doesn�t it, Peyton? The fact remains that the Colts can�t seem to win a big one, and Manning has a habit of sucking the savage sausage in important contests. There�s little doubt that the Colts have the talent to make a return trip to the playoffs, but the important question is how well they�ll do once they get there. Considering their QB and their coach both have histories of losing big games ...
The team shines on the offensive side of the ball. Manning is as good as they come � in the regular season, at least � and should throw for 4000 yards and 24 TDs this season. Perennial All-Pro Marvin Harrison is Manning�s favorite target, and has become a lock for over 100 catches and 1300 yards per season. The Colts also feature a speedy tight end in Marcus Pollard, who gives most linebackers fits when they try to cover him. The big question mark on offense is Edgerrin James. Will he be the amazing back he was before his injury, or will this be another down year for him? My bet is that Edge has a better year than he had last year, but I don�t see him returning to his previous levels. I think he�s good for 1200 yards on the ground, and about 400 more out of the backfield. He�ll be a very good running back, but the greatness he had before will elude him.
Defensively, the Colts got a lot of press for their improved play last year. Three words, friends: smoke and mirrors. They were totally exposed in the playoffs, and losing Mike Peterson isn�t going to help them much. The Colts� defense is built around quickness, which means they get pushed around by physical offenses. Unless they can change that this year � and looking at their depth chart, I doubt they can � this will be another overrated unit. The secondary looks quite unimpressive, which shouldn�t hurt the Colts too badly in their division, but might cost them outside it. It�s the Colts� ability to score 350+ points that will carry them to the division title this year, even if the defense allows almost as many points.
Tennessee Titans
Last Season: 11-5, lost in the AFC Championship game
Major Additions: None
Major Losses: WR Kevin Dyson, DT John Thornton, CB Dainon Sidney, LB Randall Godfrey
After losing to Oakland in the AFC Championship game last year, the Titans chose not to use free agency or trades to upgrade their team. They had a solid if unspectacular draft, lost a few players to other teams, and signed the rest of their free agents. The Titans are also about a billion dollars over the salary cap next season (OK, so it�s more like $25 million), so this team definitely has the look and feel of one staring down its last chance for glory.
A shame, then, that they won�t see it. QB Steve McNair deserves better, considering he�s taken more than his share of bullets for the franchise, always playing when hurt no matter the pain. It got the point that McNair didn�t practice for over a month last season, just so his battered body could be spared the additional wear and tear. McNair is very much the heart and soul of this team, and he�s more important than his impressive play at QB would normally make him. He�s going to have to be more impressive than normal this season, or more inspiring than anyone in the history of people inspiring their teammates. Eddie George is definitely a running back in decline, and has basically turned into a three-yards-per-carry runner. He might get 1000 yards this year, but he�ll need over 300 carries to do it. The options aren�t much better at receiver: Kevin Dyson is gone, leaving Derrick Mason and Drew Bennett as the primary options for McNair. Mason is a solid wideout, and Bennett has potential based on his performance last year, so all hope might not be lost. Second-round pick Tyrone Calico might contribute a little this season, but he�s big and fast, so he should be a good one. Veteran Frank Wycheck (former TERP~!) again lines up at TE, backed up by Erron Kinney. The offense racked up 367 points last season; don�t look for a repeat of that number.
Will the real Jevon Kearse please stand up? �The Freak� got much hype as a rookie, and hasn�t lived up to it since, due to a combination of injuries and lethargic play. Kevin Carter mans the other side of the defensive line, and he�s someone else the Titans are counting on to live up to his reputation. Keith Bulluck anchors a nondescript squad of linebackers, while Samari Rolle, Lance Schulters, and Andre Dyson provide the big names in the secondary. The back four look good, but the front seven will have to produce for the Titans to go anywhere this year. First-round pick Andre Woolfolk will be a star in this secondary one day; with the Titans� cap problems, he may serve as the lone bright spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Season: 6-10, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: DE Hugh Douglas, WRs Donald Hayes and JJ Stokes, KR Jermaine Lewis
Major Losses: WR Bobby Shaw, RB Stacey Mack
The NFL Draft indicated the end of the Mark Brunell era in Jacksonville: the Jags took Marshall QB Byron Leftwich with the 7th overall pick. Combined with a decision not to extend Brunell�s contract, that meant the veteran lefty was on his last legs in Jacksonville. New head coach Jack Del Rio has had to deal with this situation, as well as the oppressive heat of training camp, which has already forced three players to collapse from exhaustion. That�s an omen for the Jags� upcoming season, since they�ll never get their legs under them enough to make anything approaching a run.
Leftwich, at the time this was being written, was still holding out for his contract, and had already missed about 2/3 of the practices in camp. Brunell might be a lame duck, but it�s highly doubtful Leftwich will see any game time this season with that much time missed already. Brunell is still a solid QB, but the speed and elusiveness he used to make his name are gone, replaced by creaky knees which have turned him into a pocket passer. Taking the handoffs will be the explosive but fragile Fred Taylor. Taylor is definitely one of the most exciting players in the league when he�s healthy, which isn�t often enough. With the departure of third-down back Stacey Mack, Taylor will be getting more short-yardage and goal-line carries. It could lead to a great season, or it could land him on the injured list again. The reliable Jimmy Smith, easing into his greybeard years, returns at WR, joined by a cast of journeymen. JJ Stokes goes into the season as the #2 receiver, but why the Jags are excited about him is a mystery. He couldn�t produce with Terrell Owens drawing double coverage on the other side of the field, but he�s supposed to when paired with a much less dangerous receiver? Retread Donald Hayes is nothing to sing a campfire song about, either. The offensive line is decent (and pretty young), meaning Brunell won�t have to run for his life too often, but his options aren�t great whether he�s on the run or standing still.
On defense, Hugh Douglas brings some consistent play and much-needed fire. He�s an upgrade on the defensive line; ditto Colts castaway Mike Peterson at linebacker. The rest of the defense isn�t going to strike fear in the hearts of many, though. Fernando Bryant and Donovan Darius are solid DBs, but their partners in crime are soft. Marco Coleman, who will line up on the other side of the defensive line from Douglas, has already seen his best days and doesn�t figure to be a major player. Jack Del Rio, known for being a defensive coach, is going to have to wait a year or more to see returns on the defensive side of the ball. Last year�s 6-10 record is the upper limit this team can expect, and reality will probably see them a game or two below that.
Houston Texans
Last Season: 4-12, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: OL Zach Wiegert, LB Charlie Clemons, RB Stacey Mack
Major Losses: KR Jermaine Lewis, OL Tony Boselli, RB James Allen
Last season, the Texans experienced the usual growing pains associated with a first-year team. They�re going to have some more this year, but make no mistake: this is a franchise on the right path. GM Charley Casserly has the club positioned nicely, bringing in inexpensive veterans to supplement the younger players not quite ready for prime time. The Texans had another good draft, and lost no one they�ll miss overmuch. They might not improve on last year�s record, but better days are definitely ahead.
The franchise, of course, is QB David Carr. Carr looks like a solid QB, but since he spent half his plays on his back last season, it�s hard to judge him. The Texans made several moves to shore up the offensive line this season, since it was downright offensive last year, and try and protect their young QB better. With James Allen�s retirement, Stacey Mack and Jonathan Wells are vying for the job at running back. Mack has experience as Jacksonville�s third-down back, while Wells showed promise when he played last year. Wells is the better long-term bet to start, though fourth-round pick Domanick Davis also figures to get into the mix as the third-down back. First-round pick Andre Johnson will line up at receiver, and while he�ll have some growing pains, he�s definitely a keeper. It may not happen this year, but Carr-to-Johnson will be a better combo than Harrington-to-Rogers.
Defensively, Charlie Clemons, cast aside by the Saints in their quest to become faster, joins a linebacking corps already featuring Kailee Wong and Jamie Sharper. There�s not much to be excited about in the front three, while Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman provide what passes for excitement in the secondary. The Texans have three solid linebackers, though, and two solid DBs, so their defense won�t be awful. Just don�t expect it to win them many games.
Oakland Raiders
Last Season: 11-5, lost in the Super Bowl
Major Additions: DT Dana Stubblefield
Major Losses: DT Sam Adams, DE Regan Upshaw, CB Tory James
Last year, �Raiderball� translated as, �pass the ball as much as humanly possible.� It drove the team to 11 wins last season, with QB Rich Gannon enjoying an incredible year along the way. In the Super Bowl, however, the hungry and quick Tampa Bay defense destroyed the Raiders� short passing game. They can�t reasonably expect to win again while throwing the ball 45 times a game ... can they? They can�t, and I don�t think they will, for several reasons I�ll expound on below.
First, their primary receivers� combined age is around 150. Jerry Rice is still productive, but that decline has to be coming sooner or later. The man can�t defy the aging process forever. His counterpart, Tim Brown, is DONE as an elite receiver in the NFL. Third receiver Jerry Porter is ready to emerge and become a star, though. He had some very good games last year, and showed good speed, good hands, and good body control to go along with his size. If the Raiders are smart, they�ll play Porter and Rice as their wideouts and use Brown as a slot receiver: the fact that he�s lost a step or two while still having great hands makes him an ideal possession receiver. There�s another reason on offense the Raiders shouldn�t think pass-first all the time: Charlie Garner. Garner gained 1900 yards from scrimmage last year, divided almost exactly evenly between rushing and receiving. The key number is his yards-per-carry average last year: 5.3. He only got about 12 carries per game, but he made the most of each one. The Raiders should give him 20 carries per game this year and see what he can do, while taking the burden of carrying the offense off their two creaky receivers.
The other reason the Raiders shouldn�t throw the ball so much is their defense. This unit is not going to be as good as last year�s. Dana Stubblefield is not a true replacement for Sam Adams, and neither Kenyon Coleman nor Grant DeLawrence replace the talent of Regan Upshaw. To their credit, they�re probably not head cases, either, but there�s still a talent gap to be overcome. The secondary has some questions, as well. With his recent history of injuries, is Charles Woodson as good as he was a couple years ago? How much does Rod Woodson have left in the tank? Why isn�t Anthony Dorsett starting? The Raiders were able to reassemble last year�s team, minus a few pieces, for one more run. It cost them in depth, though, especially on defense. They�d better hope none of their starters get injured, a risky bet when most of your team has a lot of grey in their beards.
San Diego Chargers
Last Season: 8-8, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: S Kwame Lassiter, WR David Boston, FB Lorenzo Neal
Major Losses: S Rodney Harrison, LB Junior Seau, WR Curtis Conway
After being unceremoniously fired by the Redskins after the 2001 season, Marty Schottenheimer brought Martyball to the west coast. Last year, Martyball was betrayed by its defense. This year, with the loss of its unquestioned spiritual leader, the defense is again the question mark for the Chargers. Primarily, just who the hell is Zeke Moreno, and can he hope to step into the large shoes vacated by Chargers legend and future Hall of Famer Junior Seau?
Martyball relies on a strong running back to be successful, and the Chargers certainly have one of those, in the form of LaDanian Tomlinson. Last year, Tomlinson racked up over 2100 yards from scrimmage, including over 100 per game on the ground, to go with 15 total TDs. It�s hard to believe in light of those numbers, but he just might be better this year. Tomlinson is only 24, so he still has some maturing to do, and still has some things to learn about playing in the NFL. Another 24-year old learning on the job is QB Drew Brees, who threw for over 200 yards per game last season. However, Brees racked up 16 interceptions to go with his 17 TD passes, so he�ll look to improve on those numbers this year. He was sacked only 24 times last year, a testament primarily to the Chargers� offensive line, but also to Brees� underrated mobility. Helping Brees with the aerial game this year will be new arrival David Boston, set free from playing for the Cardinals. Boston brings size, strength, and speed to the offense, and should haul in 1300+ yards of passes from Brees. TE Stephen Alexander provides the safety valve. This will be an improved offense, so look for 1800 yards rushing from Tomlinson, and 3500 yards passing, with 20 or so TDs, from Brees.
Defensively, things are not so certain. Seau�s absence will be palpable, especially when the defense struggles. They struggled quite a bit last season, losing their trademark stinginess in the rush of points allowed. The front four of Wiley, Williams, Fisk, and Johnson looks solid; there are better units in the league, but San Diego�s front four have experience and will be consistent. Three members of the secondary are also quite reliable (Jammer, Lassiter, and McNeil), with Tay Cody as the question mark. Jammer is young and intercepted zero passes last year, so he�ll need to step it up a notch, but he�s a good tackler. The defense is undergoing a youth movement in the hopes of improving things (the team�s first three draft picks were defensive players). They�ll be better, but don�t look for miracles; this team goes as far as the offense takes it.
Kansas City Chiefs
Last Season: 8-8, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: LB Shawn Barber, DE Vonnie Holiday
Major Losses: LB Marvcus Patton, CB Ray Crockett
Last season, the Chiefs scored 467 points. 467. That�s almost 30 per game, and was 35 more than the next most potent offense (New Orleans). They did it without a true go-to guy at receiver, and with TE Tony Gonzalez continuing his puzzling statistical decline. The star of this offense is unquestionably RB Priest Holmes. Holmes, jettisoned from the Ravens for financial reasons when they stupidly signed Shithead Extraordinaire Elvis Grbac, has been quite the find for the Chiefs. Everybody knew he could run, but no one knew he could run. His health is something of a question going into the season, but everyone insists he�s OK. The Chiefs have to hope he is. They drafted Larry Johnson in case he's not, but the falloff there would be very noticable.
Holmes has rushed for over 1550 yards each of the past two seasons, while averaging 5.0 yards per carry in that time. He�s also been no slouch as a receiver, catching over 600 yards in passes each of those seasons. Yes, that�s well over 2100 yards from scrimmage per season. Holmes has allowed the Chiefs to lack a big-play receiver and still find the end zone with regularity; he had 24 TDs by himself last year. QB Trent Green seems not to suffer the lack of a go-to guy at wideout, coming off a year in which he threw for over 3600 yards and 26 TDs. Eddie Kennison is the most complete receiver the Chiefs have, but he�s joined in the crowded receiving corps by Johnnie Morton, Snoop Minnis, Dante Hall, Sylvester Morris, and Marc Boerigter, who had 8 TDs among his 20 catches last year. Gonzalez is still a dangerous receiver at TE, and if he�d put his basketball dreams away and focus on his football career, he could be among the top three to five TEs in the league.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, their defense was about as impotent as their offense was potent. They surrendered 399 points last season, and the only fact sadder than that is that three teams actually gave up more. Vonnie Holiday will provide some help on the defensive line, while former Eagle Shawn Barber more than replaces the departed Marvcus Patton at LB. The secondary is the weak link on a weak defense. Third-round pick Julian Battle will help eventually, but the Chiefs need to add some better players around him. The defense will improve over last year�s unit � it would be hard for them to be much worse � but despite their offensive prowess, the Chiefs will go as far as their defense takes them, and that will be to the first round of the playoffs.
Denver Broncos
Last Season: 9-7, missed the playoffs
Major Additions: QB Jake Plummer, DT Daryl Gardener, S Lee Flowers
Major Losses: QB Brian Griese, CB Denard Walker, DT Chester McGlockton, LB Kavika Pittman, DT Montae Reagor, CB Tyrone Poole, RB Olandis Gary.
The search for a QB to lead the team in the post-Elway era continues. Coach Mike Shanahan soured on Brian Griese, so the Broncos brought in Cardinals veteran Jake Plummer. Plummer is one of several questions on offense; on defense, the large degree of turnover begs the questions of consistency and quality play. The Broncos play in a tough division, one in which the last-place team in 2002 was 8-8 and scored 467 points. They can�t afford to fall behind, on either side of the ball.
Offensively, Plummer is a scrambler and a mover, whereas Griese was the model of a pocket passer. Plummer�s very mediocre record as a starter was attributed to the talent black hole which surrounded him on offense throughout his Cardinals career. He�ll have no excuses in Denver. Lining up behind Jake the Snake will be Clinton Portis, the explosive second-year tailback who amassed 1500 yards and 15 TDs on the ground, all while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey have provided a productive receiving duo for years. Now, however, the decline is coming. McCaffrey is 34 and coming off a major leg injury; Smith is 33 and coming off his worst statistical season in years. Easy Ed is a possession receiver in the slot now, and Smith is turning into one on the outside. Fortunately for the Broncos, second-year man Ashley Lelie is ready to emerge as a major player. He�ll take the burden off the aging duo of Smith and McCaffrey, while giving Plummer a speedy downfield target. The offensive line is very solid, TE Shannon Sharpe is old but can still be productive, and K Jason Elam is still reliable and still has a strong leg.
Defensively, the Broncos lost quite a few people from last year. One of the offseason replacements has already gotten injured; DT Daryl Gardener is expected to be out eight weeks after wrist surgery, leaving Dorsett Davis in the starting role. Davis, faster than Gardener, must provide steady play beside Lional Dalton. Trevor Pryce, Deltha O�Neal, and Kenoy Kennedy provide name value for the rest of the defense, which is unheralded (and probably a little underrated) past them. Look for respectable play from the Denver defense, but the Orange Crush of old this is not. The question marks on offense and defense will make this year the Broncos� turn to occupy the basement of their division while sporting a .500 record.
In a week or two: The NFC Now I'm going to enjoy Madden 2004 for a while.
Dr. Tom Fowler
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