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Al's TSM MLB Report: Week 12
Posted by Alan Keiper on Jun 20, 2004, 23:31
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Last week, we listed the ten best teams of the last twenty-five years. This week we look
at the reverse. What are the worst MLB teams of the last twenty-five years. This list is
slightly more difficult to compile. While great teams give clear parameters of their
success, it is harder to separate losing teams from one another. How much do we weigh
expectations and circumstances? Statistical analysis does not figure into the equation as
much as it did last week. Here, we are simply looking for the memorably bad teams. A
handful of criteria here. One, the cut-off is 100 losses. Two, no consecutive teams. The
2002-03 Detroit Tigers both lost 100+ games, but only one makes the list.
1. 2003 Detroit
Tigers
Could a AAA team hang in the majors? No, and here is your proof. The Tigers figured that
since they were rebuilding, they could play their prospects in the majors. The result was an
utterly pathetic team. Let's start with the hitting. Dead last in batting average, on base
percentage, slugging percentage, hits, and runs scored. Only Dmitri Young remotely resembled
a hitter. Three regulars posted OBPs under .300, and four more failed to top .320. The
pitching was equally bad. Mike Maroth became the first pitcher in over twenty years to lose
over twenty games. Two starters topped 6.00 ERAs. They had no closer. The most games
finished fell to their mop-up man, knuckleballer Steve Sparks. Only a late surge prevented
the team from topping the futility mark set by the '62 Mets.
2. 1998 Florida
Marlins
On the whole, one of baseball's biggest disgraces. The Marlins won the World Series in
1997, and owner Wayne Huizenga immediately set upon dismantling the team. Let us take a look
at the Marlins offseason transactions from the offseason of 1997-98...
Traded Moises Alou to the Houston Astros. Received a player to be named later, Manuel
Barrios, and Oscar Henriquez. The Houston Astros sent Mark J. Johnson (December 16, 1997) to
the Florida Marlins to complete the trade.
Johnson pitched uninspiring 24 innings with the Tigers in 2000. Barrios pitched 6.7
innings over two years, for three teams. Heniquez had the most successful career of the
three, posting a 6.06 ERA in 52 career innings. In fairness, the Marlins dealt Johnson in
early 1999 as part of a package that netted them Mike Lowell from the New York Yankees.
Traded Robb Nen to the San Francisco Giants. Received Joe Fontenot, Mike Pageler
(minors), and Mike Villano (minors).
Fontenot pitched 42.7 innings for the Marlins, posting a 6.33 ERA. Pageler and Villano
never reached the majors.
Traded Devon White to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Jesus Martinez (minors).
Martinez never reached the majors.
Traded Jeff Conine to the Kansas City Royals. Received Blaine Mull (minors).
Traded Ed Vosberg to the San Diego Padres. Received Chris Clark (minors).
Mull and Clark never reached the majors.
Traded Kevin Brown to the San Diego Padres. Received Derrek Lee, Rafael Medina, and
Steve Hoff (minors).
Lee of course became an All-Star.
So here we have five players traded, netting only one remotely good player in return.
They traded Al Leiter and others for A.J. Burnett, who would not contribute meaningfully
until 2001. The real kicker came when they traded Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles
Johnson, and Gary Sheffield to the Dodgers for Mike Piazza and Todd Zeile. Of course, Piazza
was too good, and the Marlins traded him to the Mets eight days later for Preston Wilson and
Ed Yarnell. So it was Bonilla, Eisenreich, Johnson, and Sheffield for Zeile, Wilson, and
Yarnell. Of course, they traded Zeile at the deadline for two minor leaguers.
The club itself featured a truly awful starting rotation, with Brian Meadows (5.21 ERA),
Andy Larkin (9.64), Rafael Medina (6.01), and Ryan Dempster (7.08) all collecting more than
ten starts. And this is in a pitchers' park! On the hitting side, only Cliff Floyd slugged
over .430. Their team .373 slugging percentage ranked dead last in the National League.
3. 1993 New York
Mets
The worst team money can buy. In the early 90s, the Mets hoped to use their
superior financial resources to form a superior baseball team. On the way, something went
horribly wrong. What happened?
Let's look at the offense first. The Mets had the worst OBP in the National League. Two
things went wrong. One, the Mets had three players they hoped would power their offense.
But Howard Johnson faced a drastic decline in production, and Eddie Murray stopped producing
as well. Only Bobby Bonilla hit as well as expected. The Mets then counted on sub-par
players Joe Orsulak, Vince Coleman, and Tim Bogar to fill in their lineup. Rookie Todd
Hundley did not produce. Young Jeff Kent gave the Mets 21 home runs, but with a paltry .320
On Base Percentage.
The pitching fared somewhat better. Injuries, however, haunted the Yankees. Bret
Saberhagen and Sid Fernandez, two of their best pitchers, missed significant time. In their
place, the Mets pitched Anthony Young (1-16), and Pete Schourek (5-12). Closer John Franco
had an off year, posting a 5.20 ERA. Their entire bullpen was terrible, with Mike Maddux
leading the group with a 3.60 ERA.
The interesting thing about the Mets is how poorly they performed relative to their runs
scored and runs allowed. As regular readers know, you can predict a team's win/loss record
by looking at runs scored and allowed. Using those stats, they are predicted at 73-89. They
finished 59-103, underperforming by 14 wins. That is incredible. The awful bullpen
contributed I am sure.
4. 1996 Detroit
Tigers
The '96 Tigers allowed 1,103 runs, easily one of the worst figures in baseball history.
To the best of my knowledge, only the 1930 Philadelphia Phillies allowed more runs over a
season in the modern era. The rotation consisted of Omar Olivares (7-11, 4.89 ERA), Felipe
Lire (6-14, 5.22), Greg Gohr (4-8, 7.17), Justin Thompson (1-6, 4.58), and Brian Williams
(3-10, 6.77). Greg Keagle (7.39), A.J. Sager (5.01), C.J. Nitkowski (8.08), Scott Aldred
(9.35), Todd Van Poppel (11.39), and Clint Sodowsky (11.84) all collected 6-9 starts. When
A.J. Sager is your best rotation filler, you know you have serious problems. The defense
shares some blame, as Andujar Cedeno and Mark Lewis rank among the worst double play
combinations in history. On the offensive side, only Bobby Higginson and Cecil Fielder
posted decent seasons at the plate. Alan Trammell stuck for one season too long, hitting
233/267/259. The Tigers struggled all year to form a solid team, as only Lewis and Travis
Fryman played more than 100 games at their respective positions. Only the 2003 disaster
keeps this team from the top slot. Thanks to that club, this club can quietly slip away into
obscurity.
5. 1988 Baltimore
Orioles
0-21. That record tells the story of the '88 Orioles. The club lost their first 21 games
of the season, dooming them towards last place for the entire season. Moreover, this club is
the only team on the list to finish last in both runs scored AND runs allowed. Billy Ripkin
played second all season, and responded with a 207/260/258 hitting line. Third Baseman Rene
Gonzalez added a 215/263/266 line. Outfielder Ken Gerhart hit 195/256/344. The bench was
terrible, with Jim Traber (222/261/324), Rick Schu (256/316/363), Pete Stanicek (230/313/310)
and Terry Kennedy (226/269/298) all hitting poorly. The pitching was uniformly terrible,
finishing last in strikeouts. Oswaldo Peraza (5.55 ERA) and Jay Tibbs (5.39) contributed to
the Orioles woes. Happily, these Orioles were a one year wonder, and the club came within
two wins of a division crown the next year. Had they replaced Billy Ripkin, they might have
won.
6. 1979 Oakland
Athletics
The first casualties of free agency. Charlie Finley refused to pay his stars big money,
and they all departed in the late 70s. This left the A's with a collection of cast-offs and
no name players. As evidence of their troubles, the club drew just 306,763 fans only the
entire season. Only Dwayne Murphy and Dave Revering made serious contributions on the
offensive side. And only Revering topped a .400 slugging percentage. Four starters failed
to cross the .300 line in their on base percentages. The pitching was uniformly bad. Only
reliever Dave Hamilton kept his ERA below 4.00. Future scout Matt Keough finished 2-17. The
Athletics managed a turn around the next season, finishing above .500 thanks to new manager
Billy Martin, a vastly improved pitching staff, and the emergence of star outfielder Rickey
Henderson. Oddly enough, in 1980 only reliever Dave Hamilton finished with his ERA OVER
4.00.
7. 1987 Cleveland
Indians
So bad, they inspired a movie. The '80s Indians always featured low OBPs, and high
slugging percentages. Despite the power, their failure to reach base efffected their ability
to score runs. Joe Carter posted a .304 OBP. Cory Snyder, Chris Bando, Tony Bernazard, and
Mel Hall all posted OBPs below .310. They did have good top of the order guys, as Brett
Butler (295/399/425) and Julio Franco (319/389/428) reached base efficiently. The Indians
loved old pitchers, as Phil Niekro and Steve Carlton contributed starts. They were a rare
team that had two knuckleballers, Niekro and Tom Candiotti. Unfortunately, Carlton and
Niekro had rached the end. Ken Schrom started 29 games, and posted a 6.50 ERA. The Indians
of course appeared two years later in the film, Major League. As an aside, I am
convinced the Eddie Harris character was based off of Phil Niekro (with a little Gaylord
Perry added.
8. 2002 Milwaukee
Brewers
If you believe Bug Selig, this club wass the result of baseball's flawed economic system.
If you like to think independantly, you realize this club was the result of stupidity and
incompetance. The club signed Jeffrey Hammonds for 3 years/$21 Million after he post gaudy
numbers in Coors Field. Of course he never came close to matching them. The Brewers simply
failed to produce any punch in their lineup. Injuries to Geoff Jenkins also hurt the
offense. The pitching staff failed to develop, as Glendon Rusch never met his potential, nor
did Ruben Quevedo. The bullpen performed reasonably well, but the pen is the last piece of a
championship puzzle, not the first. Fortunately for the franchise, Ben Sheets has emerged as
an ace, and the farm system indicates happier times ahead for the Brew Crew.
9. 2002 Tampa Bay Devil
Rays
2002 was not a very good year, was it? In 2000, the Devil Rays decided the best road to
success came from signing a bunch of sluggers. Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla, and Jose Canseco
joined Fred McGriff in a group pundits called "The Four DHs." Of course it did not work, and
the Devil Rays were back to square one. Fast forward to 2002. Bad hitting abounded on this
team. The entire infield (Steve Cox, Brent Abernathy, Chris Gomez, and Jared Sandberg) could
not hit their way out of a paper bag. Catcher prospect Toby Hall failed to develop. The
Devil Rays called up outfield prospect Carl Crawford at the young age of 20, and he responded
with a .290 On Base Percentage. The pitching staff was led by Tanyon Sturtze. Back up and
read that again. Joe Kennedy, Paul Wilson, Ryan Rupe, and Jorge Sosa rounded out the
rotation. The Devil Rays were just an expansion team run as poorly as humanly possible. Lou
Pinella and a group of prospects has breathed some life into the club, but it remains to be
seen whether they can climb out of last place.
10. 1983 Seattle
Mariners
I hesitated on listing expansion franchises, but after seven years the statute of
limitations is clearly over. The Mariners featured "hitters" Rick Sweet (221/259/269), Spike
Owen (196/257/271), and Jamie Allen (223/309/304) in their starting lineup. Only outfielder
Steve Henderson (294/356/450) remotely frightened opposing pitchers. The pitching staff was
actually decent, with Matt Young (3.27 ERA) leading the staff.
On a side note, Joe Orsulak has played on three different 100 loss clubs: The 1985
Pittsburgh Pirates, the '88 Orioles, and the '93 Mets. Bobby Higginson also played for three
such clubs, all named the Detroit Tigers.
Honorable Mentions: The 1979 Toronto Blue Jays lost 109 games, but were a third
year expansion team, so picking on them seems unfair. The 2001 Pittsburgh Pirates lost 100
games, but the list had too many recent teams. Other teams, such as the 1988 Atlanta Braves,
the 1982 Minnesota Twins, and the 1985 San Francisco Giants seemed too bland about which to
write a paragraph.
THE NEYER/JAMES GUIDE TO PITCHERS
Bill James and Rob Neyer released The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers. The book
provides an interesting historical look at pitches, pitchers, and pitching. The book intends
to provide a reference specifically on pitching, and to provide information simply not
available in common baseball references. Those of you who fear statistics and numbers need
not worry, as little of them are used. The book is straightforward writing.
In Part I, Neyer and James provide a historical overview of different types of pitches. A
glossary is given, detailing every type of pitch, and different names given for them. Neyer
and James than give chapters on individual pitches: The fastball, curve, change-up, slider,
knuckleball, forkball, screwball, and spitball. The chapters provide a history of the
development and refinement of each pitch. Neyer gives a top ten list of pitchers for each
pitch, and James gives a top-ten list of fastballers for each half-decade. The article of
fastballs is available on ESPN.
Part II provides the meat of this book. Neyer and James provide short biographies of ten
pitchers of near Hall of Fame quality. These pitchers could not account for a single book on
their own, so their stories are collected here, in about 4-8 pages each. Tommy Bond, Tony
Mullane, Wilbur Cooper, Eddie Rommel, Mel Harder, Lon Warneke, Tommy Bridges, Bucky Walkers,
Billy Pierce, and Bob Friend are profiled.
The Pitcher Census runs nearly 300 pages, listing every important pitcher in baseball
history, and whatever information was combed about them. Nothing is given about how well
they threw, just how they threw. For each pitcher, their pitch selection is given,
and a scouting report or quote given when available. For example, in Eric Gagne's entry, his
pitches he threw as a starter, then as a reliever are given. A description of his pitching
from Sports Illustrated is given, and other quotes from Paul LoDuca and Preston Wilson
are added. The section is intended to give an extra reference on pitchers, beyond what you
might find in a usual baseball encyclopedia. Of note, the reference has its moments of
humor, listing entries for Charlie Brown, and one-time New York Mets phenom Sidd Finch.
The last portion of Part II lists the all of the knuckleballers and submariners in Major
League history.
Part III is where you will find more statistical analysis. In "Abuse and Durability,"
Bill James takes issue with Baseball Prospectus' Pitcher Abuse Points. James runs a
study, and concludes the system simply does not identify pitchers at risk of injury. James
states that pitch counts are an insufficient method of measuring a pitcher's injury risk, and
claims there is no evidence whatsoever that high pitch counts lead to injury (excepting
younger pitchers). James hands the floor to Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner for "A Response
In Defense of PAP," allowing them ample time to provide a counter-argument. Jazayerli and
Woolner point out inequities in James' studies, and point to other studies showing pitcher
effectiveness DOES decrease after high-pitch outings. I will discuss the findings more in a
subsequent column. Suffice to say there is a lot of interesting information in both
articles.
In "E=M Cy Squared," Bill James uses historical Cy Young voting patterns to develop a
system which predicts Cy Young award winners. James claims the system works about 80% of the
time. ESPN again gives more
information on this system. It overrates closers slightly, although that problem will fix
itself over time. If Armando Benitez were to finish with 57 saves and a 1.18 ERA however, he
just might win the Cy Young after all. It is very unlikely, of course.
In "Lucky Bastards," James writes about the luckiest, and unluckiest pitchers in history,
according to their W/L records for a given season. "Unique Records" lists unmatched pitching
records (i.e. 15-1, only posted once in MLB history), that some might find interesting. Bill
James than introduces "Pitcher Codes," a new concept. James simply runs the idea out here,
that a pitcher could be defined by a series of letter codes, for example....
Robin Robers, 1952 R A F-1 H-2 M-2 N-3 B 1 1
Look confusing. You are not alone. I found this section to be a load of rubbish.
Thankfully, it runs only four pages, and I suspect that will be the last we hear about this
idea. Overall, I found the book informative. It carries a cover price of $16.95 (Amazon
usually has it 30% off), so its inexpensive. If you are at all interested in pitchers, check
it out.
ALL TIME ALL STAR TEAMS
Around the time of the All-Star Break, I plan on simulating a game between the game's all
time great players, pitting the American League against the National League. I planned on
creating the teams myself, but decided to subject myself to voting like that faced when
making real-life All-Star games. So I left the roster voting up to the TSM Forums. Having
acquired the eight starters from each team, I set upon creating the full rosters. Same rules
apply here as in the real All-Star game. 32 man rosters, and each team must be represented,
even the Devil Rays. As in the real game, the 32nd man will be decided later. Many players
are listed with cities they did not play in, such as Christy Mathewson (SF). The idea is
that they are listed with the franchise, and past cities are included in their histories.
Here are the teams....
AMERICAN LEAGUE
STARTERS
C- Yogi Berra, NYY
1B- Lou Gehrig, NYY
2B- Napolean Lajoie, Cle
SS- Alex Rodriguez, Tex (unanimous)
3B- Wade Boggs, TB
LF- Ted Williams, Bos
CF- Mickey Mantle, NYY
RF- Babe Ruth, NYY
Thanks to Boggs, we fudge a bit on the team representation rule. The Second Baseman was
the most wide open vote on the ballot, with six different players receiving votes.
RESERVES
Mickey Cochrane, Oak
Carlton Fisk, Bos
Mark McGwire, Oak
Eddie Collins, CWS
George Brett, KC
Cal Ripkin, Balt
Rickey Henderson, Oak
Ty Cobb, Det
Frank Robinson, Balt
Ken Griffey Jr., Sea
Robin Yount, Mil
Jimmie Foxx, Oak
PITCHERS
Walter Johnson, Min (starter)
Lefty Grove, Oak
Nolan Ryan, Ana
Roger Clemens, Tor
Bob Feller, Cle
Jim Palmer, Balt
Ed Walsh, CWS
Whitey Ford, NYY
Pedro Martinez, Bos
Dennis Eckersley, Oak
Cy Young, Bos
NATIONAL LEAGUE
STARTERS
C- Johnny Bench, Cin
1B- Stan Musial, StL
2B- Rogers Hornsby, StL
SS- Honus Wagner, Pit
3B- Mike Schmidt, Phi (unanimous)
LF- Barry Bonds, SF (unanimous)
CF- Willie Mays, SF (unanimous)
RF- Hank Aaron, Atl
RESERVES
Roy Campanella, LA
Mike Piazza, NYM
Jeff Bagwell, Hou
Joe Morgan, Cin
Eddie Mathews, Atl
Ernie Banks, ChC
Tim Raines, Mon
Duke Snider, LA
Mel Ott, SF
Tony Gwynn, SD
Gary Sheffield, Fla
Larry Walker, Col
PITCHERS
Pete Alexander, Phi (starter)
Warren Spahn, Atl
Randy Johnson, Ari
Tom Seaver, NYM
Christy Mathewson, SF
Bob Gibson, StL
Kid Nichols, Atl
Sandy Koufax, LA
Carl Hubbell, SF
Greg Maddux, Atl
Steve Carlton, Phi
I am not sure which selections you will agree or disagree with, so instead of running
individual comments, I just give the list. If you have any questions, feel free to ask. If
I get enough questions, I will open a feedback portion for next week's column.
As with the All-Star game, I am presenting a 32nd man vote. Choose your favorite in each
league, and e-mail your choice to 32nd Man Voting Headquarters.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tris Speaker
Joe DiMaggio
Carl Yastrzemski
Reggie Jackson
Joe Jackson
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Jackie Robinson
Pete Rose
Willie McCovey
Roberto Clemente
Willie Stargell
Voting ends Saturday, June 27, at Midnight
RICHARD HIDALGO
The Mets acquired Richard Hidalgo and cash from the Houston Astros for David Weathers. On
the forums, I stated this trade worked for both clubs. Superficially, however, the Mets are
big winners here. I tend to take career numbers over one year numbers, so I do not believe
Hidalgo's 2004 numbers are truly indicative of his ability. Of course, Minute Maid Park
tends to exagerrate hitting, so its worthwhile to take Hidalgo's road stats. Hidalgo is a
career 276/347/506 hitter on the road. So I believe the Mets picked up a good hitter here.
At the very least, it moves the Garcia/Spencer platoon to the bench. The Mets might not be
playoff contenders, but this is a low-risk, high reward manuever, and stranger things have
happened.
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