Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's TSM Report for July 12th Posted by Alan Keiper on Jul 11, 2004, 21:52

MID-SEASON AWARDS

AL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Ivan Rodriguez
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Carlos Guillen
5. Michael Young
6. Hank Blalock
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Frank Thomas
9. Mark Mulder
10. Miguel Tejada

Manny Ramirez leads all American League batters in On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, Runs Created and Isolated Power. He is head and tails above the league in batting, so far that he overcomes any differences in defensive ability. Ivan Rodriguez finishes second thanks to his .369 batting average at the catchers' position. Vlad Guerrero hit 346/394/592, keeping the Anaheim Angels in the pennant race despite major injuries to several key players. Carlos Guillen has sparked the Tigers by hitting 327/392/563, while playing shortstop. Ditto Michael Young. Hank Blalock has also sparked the Rangers' offense. Defending MVP Alex Rodriguez is hitting 271/363/515, with 18 steals in 20 attempts. Frank Thomas is second in the American League in OPS. Mark Mulder recently raised his record to 12-2. Miguel Tejada rounds out the list, hitting 310/357/504 for the Orioles.

Melvin Mora misses the cut due to the playing time he has missed. His rate stats are superb, but he misses out on counting stats. David Ortiz misses out due to his barely above-average OBP, and his complete inability to hit left handed pitchers. I was tempted to round out the list with Carlos Beltran. I don't know if the Royals 2-13 record since his departure works for him or against him. In the end, I decided not to get cute, and there are several other more deserving players.

NL MVP
1. Barry Bonds
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Scott Rolen
4. Jim Thome
5. Todd Helton
6. Albert Pujols
7. J.D. Drew
8. Lance Berkman
9. Adam Dunn
10. Mike Lowell

Barry Bonds leads the National League in batting average, On Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage. No player in the history of the game has reached base more often than Bonds. Not only has Bobby Abreu hit 303/438/570, he's stolen 19 bases in 20 attempts, and only grounded into three double plays. Scott Rolen leads the league in RBIs, and plays gold-glove defense at third. Jim Thome leads the league in home runs, and leads the league in slugging percentage by players not named Bonds. Todd Helton's stats are often disregarded because of Coors Field. He still hit 327/428/590 on the road. Albert Pujols is having another fine season. J.D. Drew is having a breakout season, hitting 303/429/610 and missing little time with injury. Lance Berkman ranks third in On Base Percentage. Adam Dunn ranks second in the league in home runs, and in the top ten in runs created, On Base Percentage, and OPS. Mike Lowell hit 305/382/570 for the Marlins, while playing third base.

AL Cy Young
1. Curt Schilling
2. Mark Mulder
3. Brad Radke

Curt Schilling is well above all other American League pitchers in terms of peripherals. 118 strikeouts and 21 walks in 125.3 innings pitched. Mark Mulder holds a 12-2 record for the Oakland Athletics. Brad Radke has gone unnoticed thanks to his 5-5 record, but his 8.5 K/BB ratio is, by far, the best in the league.

NL Cy Young
1. Ben Sheets
2. Roger Clemens
3. Randy Johnson

Ben Sheets leads the National League in ERA, and has the best peripheral statistics in the league. Roger Clemens has posted a 10-3 record. Randy Johnson has posted a superb K:BB ratio, and pitched a perfect game.

Jason Schmidt is the odd man out. It was hard to leave him off the ballot. The fact is, he had one less start then Clemens or Sheets, and his peripherals weren't so much better as to offset the difference in playing time.

AL Rookie Of the Year
1. Bobby Crosby
2. Zach Greinke
3. Kevin Youkilis

Bobby Crosby has filled Miguel Tejada's shoes nicely in Oakland, posting a .330 OBP and .458 slugging percentage. Twenty year old Zach Greinke is a possible superstar in the making. He's alked just 12 while striking out 38 in 56 innings pitched. The Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis, leads all rookies with a .397 OBP. Before anyone asks, Lew Ford is not eligible for the award on a technicality. He accumulated too many days of service time last year with the Twins.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Jason Bay
2. Kazuo Matsui
3. Ryan Madson

In choosing a Rookie of the Year, I think playing time is not as important a consideration as overall ability. Jason Bay is far and away the best rookie in the National League this season, despite missing a month due to injury. Kazuo Matsui is here by default, and Ryan Madson has been a revelation in the Phillies' bullpen.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Lou Pinella
2. Buck Showalter
3. Mike Scioscia

I have participated in a number of debates concerning whether players on losing teams deserve MVP awards. My thinking on the issue brought me to a new question. Do managers of losing teams deserve MVP awards? Even the most stalwart of Alex Rodriguez supporters did not think twice when writing Tony Pena, Joe Torre, or whichever winning manager on their Manager of the Year ballot. But how much credit for a team's success depends on the players, and how much influence can a manager exert on a team's win/loss percentage? The 2003 Detroit Tigers are probably going to finish last no matter who is managing, and the 1927 New York Yankees are probably going to finish first no matter who is managing. So what are objective criteria on which we can judge managers? Let us make a list....

1. Does the manager's team have a good W/L record? Does it surpass expectations?

Essentially the most often-used criteria nowadays.

2. Do young players on the manager's team develop as they should, or better?

A good manager should teach his players the skills they need to succeed in the big leagues. Do this manager's young players succeed, or do they slump and languish, and cease developing?

3. Does this manager utilize effective strategy?

How often does this manager waste opportunities by sacrifice bunts, relative to his league? Do his teams steal bases at a worthwhile percentage (the break-even point is around 70%)?

4. Does this manager have a track record of success?

Self-explanatory. Has this manager succeeded in the past, with a different group of players?

At the moment, they are just ideas, and not used in practice. I will try and ingrain them into my end of the year balloting. For now, Lou Pinella has done more with less than any manager in baseball, and he deserves alot of credit for that. Buck Showalter has once again turned a young team into contenders. The Rangers should fire him now so they can win the Series next year (yes, I am kidding). Mike Scioscia has survived numerous injuries to keep his team afloat.

NL Manager Of the Year
1. Bobby Cox
2. Ned Yost
3. Bruce Bochy

Bobby Cox is a Hall of Fame manager. For the second straight season, against all odds, he has kept the Braves in contention. Ned Yost has the Brewers in the Wild Card hunt. And Bruce Bochy has justifyed the Padres' faith in him by keeping the Padres in the race for the National League West.

LUCKY/UNLUCKY PITCHERS

DIPS (Defense Independant Pitching Stats) uses three major stats, home runs, strikeouts, and walks, to rate a pitcher's quality independant from the effects of a good or bad defense. Studies show hits allowed are largely the product of luck. A pitcher's hits allowed total is widely variable from year-to-year, and rarely shows any predictive quality outside of outs from strikeouts. Whether you believe or disbelieve in the statistic's quality, it provides a different and interesting look at pitchers. Here are the five luckiest, and unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season.

LUCKIEST PITCHERS

1. Al Leiter (2.40 ERA, 4.99 DIPS ERA)
2. Carlos Zambrano (2.61 ERA, 3.85 DIPS ERA)
3. Tom Glavine (2.66 ERA, 3.80 DIPS ERA)
4. Steve Trachsel (3.36 ERA, 4.68 DIPS ERA)
5. Wade Miller (3.35 ERA, 4.58 DIPS ERA)

Three of these pitchers have less than 2:1 K/BB ratios. Leiter has only struck out five more than he has walked. It is rare for a pitcher with a ratio that poor to lead the league in earned run average. It is worth noting that Leiter, Glavine and Trachsel all pitch for the Mets, meaning either their pitching is extremely lucky, or their defense is extremely good. Mike Cameron is a drastic improvement, but since the hits allowed phenominon is not universal, I am inclined to lean towards option one. Expect major declines from Leiter, Trachsel, and Miller. Expect slight declines from Glavine and Zambrano, who would be useful pitchers without the luck.

UNLUCKIEST PITCHERS

1. Sidney Ponson (6.29 ERA, 4.36 DIPS ERA)
2. Jeremy Bonderman (6.03 ERA, 4.64 DIPS ERA)
3. Mike Mussina (5.20 ERA, 4.18 DIPS ERA)
4. Roy Oswalt (3.65 ERA, 2.94 DIPS ERA)
5. Jason Davis (6.00 ERA, 4.86 DIPS ERA)

Unlucky pitchers are not as likely to improve as lucky pitchers are to decline. Ponson, Bonderman, and Davis would be considered disappointing even without the bad luck. Notable here are Roy Oswalt and Mike Mussina. Oswalt is a few breaks away from appearing as an elite pitcher. He's a tremendously overlooked talent. Mussina's appearance is a sign that his peripherals have not slipped, and he should return to respectability at some point.

AL'S ADJUSTED POWER RANKINGS

The mid-season seems like a good place to revisit the adjusted power rankings. These rankings are a purely statistical model, in an attempt to make some sense of the unbalanced schedule. Instead of regular win/loss records, winning percentages versus the East, Central, West, and Interleague are used, with runs scored and allowed totals thrown in for balance.

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. New York Yankees
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Chicago White Sox
6. Texas Rangers
7. Anaheim Angels
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Oakland Athletics
10. San Diego Padres
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
13. New York Mets
14. San Francisco Giants
15. Minnesota Twins
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
17. Atlanta Braves
18. Houston Astros
19. Cincinnati Reds
20. Florida Marlins
21. Detroit Tigers
22. Cleveland Indians
23. Toronto Blue Jays
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
26. Colorado Rockies
27. Seattle Mariners
28. Arizona Diamondbacks
29. Montreal Expos
30. Kansas City Royals

It is interesting to see the Cubs ranked so highly, and the Devil Rays ranked so low. The Cubs benefit from a 5-1 record against the East, which should level at some point. The Devil Rays finished an amazing 15-3 against the National League, which does not leave many wins for the rest of their schedule. No real conclusions here, and this list is not a predictive list for the rest of the season. Once again, it simply serves to view the picture from a different angle.

HAS A-ROD DECLINED?

Alex Rodriguez's raw statistics have declined this season, from 298/396/600 last season, to 271/363/515 this season. Has Alex Rodriguez had a worse season, or is he simply feeling the effects of the change from the Ballpark At Arlington, to Yankee Stadium? Rodriguez hit 282/384/557 last season on the road. This season, he is hitting 238/339/512. Alex Rodriguez has hit worse this season, and it is not simply a park illusion. Whether this is simply a slump, or a future career pattern is yet to be seen. But it is worth keeping an eye on.

BARRY BONDS AND THE INTENTIONAL WALK

Despite only being halfway through the season, Barry Bonds has already set a new Intentional Walk record, with 71. This begs the question, is it really worth it to intentionally walk Bonds all the time? Without the intentional walks, Bonds' OBP falls to a meager .528. In essence, Bonds' OBP is not simply an illusion of intentional walks. The problem that Bonds has is that the Giants are hitting 236/288/335 from the #5 position in the lineup. With that kind of pathetic production, it is no wonder teams chose to walk Bonds all the time. It is good strategy.

That's all for this week. Check out the column next week for more baseball insights.

Send feedback to: Alan Keiper