Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's MLB Report for July 26th Posted by Alan Keiper on Jul 25, 2004, 21:47

A poster suggested I should take a look at the also-rans of Major League Baseball. The teams that are out of contention, and what they need to do over the offseason to get back on track. I am always on the lookout for easy column ideas, and this is as good as any. So we will look at the seven teams that are ten or more games out of a playoff track, and where they stand. This week we look at the American League teams, and next week we will tackle the National League teams.

SEATTLE MARINERS

What went wrong?: Sudden, serious declines in the Mariners offense. Bret Boone fell from 294/366/535, to 233/293/376. Edgar Martinez fell from 294/406/489, to 242/335/363. John Olerud continued his decline, as his OPS dropped to .714. The Mariners free agent signings were a dismal failure as well. Third baseman Scott Spiezio is hittting 216/288/376. Rich Aurilia hit 241/304/337 before his trade to the San Diego Padres. Raul Ibanez is hitting for power, but provides a dismal .315 OBP. The Mariners offense rates last in the American League. The pitching staff has been hurt by the failures of Gil Meche and Ryan Franklin, and the Mariners have been unable to fill the gap. Pitcher Rafael Soriano has missed most of the season.

The Mariners have a few good players coming up from the minor leagues. Shortstop Jose Lopez is slugging .500 in AAA Tacoma, and will likely man shortstop for the Mariners in 2005. Jeremy Reed, acquired in the Freddy Garcia trade, will take over center field as Randy Winn departs for free agency. Chris Snelling could contribute in the outfield, but constant injuries keep him in doubt. The Mariners pressing problem next season may be second base. Bret Boone has a $9 Million option which vests if he reaches 450 plate appearances. He has about 375 right now. The Mariners will want to move him or bench him to avoid paying him that salary. A possible battle with the players' union looms, depending on the path they take. Second base should probably be the Mariners primary concern when free agency rolls around. The Mariners are currently auditioning Bucky Jacobsen at first base. Whether he pans out or not will determine the Mariners' path at that position. The Mariners are devoid of positional prospects otherwise. Shin-Soo Choo looks like their lead-off man of the future, but otherwise the cuboard is bare.

The Mariners pitching future looks a little brighter. Jamie Moyer will return for another season. Joel Pineiro is back on track after a shaky start. Travis Blackley has prospects. Rafael Soriano should be ready to step into the rotation next season, and between Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche, the Mariners could scrape together a fifth starter. Cha Baek, Clint Nageotte, and Robert Madritsch round out a talented group of minor league pitching prospects.

From a glance, the Mariners need to seek a second baseman over the offseason, and flip some of their talented pitching prospects for hitting prospects. I would consider trading Jaime Moyer if the right offer comes along. The Mariners will likely bid Edgar Martinez bon voyage after a memorable career. The Mariners will free up significant payroll this offseason. Bret Boone ($7 Million after the buyout), John Olerud ($7.7 Million), Randy Winn ($3,500,000), Rich Aurilia ($3,150,000), and Edgar Martinez ($3 Million) are coming off the books. That gives the Mariners $24 Million to play with this offseason. If the Mariners make smart acquisitions, it is entirely possible to see them compete for the division crown next season.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

What went wrong?: What didn't go wrong? First off, the Royals were struck by a rash of injuries. Young pitchers Kyle Snyder, Runelvys Hernandez, and Miguel Asencio all missed the entire season. Kevin Appier has pitched only four innings thus far. Mike MacDougal lost his command and has been ineffective in brief appearances. The offense also suffered from injuries. Juan Gonzalez has been out of action since May. Third baseman Joe Randa missed time. Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa missed a month to begin the season with migranes. Both Benito Santiago and Kelly Stinnett hit the deck at the same time, forcing the Royals to play John Buck and Alberto Castillo at catcher. The players that were healthy were ineffective as well. Mike Sweeney has played well below his established standands. Ken Harvey, while a pleasant surprise, is still among the lower tier of AL first basemen/designated hitters. The one player who did play superbly, Carlos Beltran, was shipped out in a midseason trade. Only Stinnett, Sweeney, Harvey, and Matt Stairs sport OPS stats above the league average.

The pitching has been abysmal. Darrell May has been homer-prone, giving up 20 long balls in 110 innings. 22 year old Jimmy Gobble has shown excellent control, but a poor strikeout rate. Brian Anderson (7.12 ERA) has been horrific. Only 20 year old phenom Zach Greinke has shown promise, looking like a young Bret Saberhagen in his eleven starts thus far. As evidence of their starting pitching follies, the Royals' starters sport a collective ERA of 5.64, last in the American League.

The Royals are bad across the board, so what can they do this offseason? The rotation may work itself out, depending on how their pitchers rebound. Zach Greinke is as good a young pitcher as there is in the game. David DeJesus, John Buck, and third baseman Mark Teahen need to develop and fill in the Royals lineup. The Royals will need some spare parts to fill the black holes in their lineup, notably second base, and the corner outfield. They have problems all over the place, so it will be difficult to pull a contender together. There probably is not enough together to fix the team with a single free agent signing, so it might be better to hold course, and work with the young players.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

What went wrong?: The pitching staff collapsed. Free agent signee Sidney Ponson has pitched terribly, striking out only 4.84 batters per 9, and allowing 160 hits in 119 innings. Eric DuBose has a 6.39 ERA. Matt Riley post an 8.39 ERA. Kurt Ainsworth added a 9.68 ERA. DuBose and Ainsworth both hit the disabled list, and Matt Riley was sent down to AAA. Currently, the rotation consists of Ponson, Rodrigo Lopez, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Dave Borkowski. Cabrera has pitched well, but his peripherals are a cause for concern. On the offense, the team is in the middle of the pack. Luis Matos has been a disaster in center, and they need an upgrade. Jay Gibbons and Larry Bigbie have stalled, and contending teams need more production from the corner outfield.

Looking ahead, the Orioles hope that Ainsworth and DuBose can rebound from injuries. They also need Matt Riley and Sidney Ponson to work out their troubles. On the prospect front, John Maine could provide assistance by next season. On the offensive front, Rafael Palmeiro is slowing, and the Orioles should consider finding a first baseman to bat against lefties. Baltimore is 32-28 against right handers, but a miserable 10-22 against left handers. The Orioles should look at a Jermaine Dye or Kevin Mench type this offseason. A mid-level free agent who comes cheaply and can bash lefties. If possible, they should also target a front-line starter.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

What went wrong?: After finishing second in runs scored last season, the Blue Jays have fallen to twelvth this season. Principally responsible for the collapse is Carlos Delgado. Carlos Delgado has fallen from 302/426/593 last season, to 208/311/398 so far this season. Using Runs Created as a guide, and prorating last year's team runs scored total, I estimate that Carlos Delgado is responsible for a full half of the Blue Jays' offensive fall. Josh Phelps has also lost his bat, hitting just 232/294/384. Vernon Wells regressed to the norm, and no offensive player really stepped up their performance. On the pitching side, the regression of Roy Halladay and the addition of Ted Lilly, Justin Miller, and Miguel Batista essentially cancel each other out.

The Blue Jays are counting on their young prospects in order to succeed in the future. Outfielder Gabe Gross and shortstop Russ Adams are performing respectfully in Syracuse, and could start for the Blue Jays next season. Alexis Rios has already reached the big club, and Rios, Wells and Gross form a solid outfield for the next several seasons. The minor league system is absolutely stocked with good, young players. Adam Peterson, David Bush, Dustin McGowan, Brian Reed and Vinnie Chulk are all good pitching prospects. The Blue Jays could build a contender simply by building from within. They also get Delgado's $19 Million off the books, and they will have an opportunity to add the spare parts they need.

OTHER STUFF

The trade deadline is this Saturday. Of course, this time of year there are dozens of rumors floating around, of which one or two will actually happen. Rumors are circulating, and have been for a month, that Randy Johnson could end up with the New York Yankees. Personally, I think it would be a mistake. It would help the Yankees in the postseason, but harm the team in the long term. The Yankees are going to make the postseason. Johnson would only benefit the team for a few starts in the postseason. Let's face it. The Yankees farm system is barren in the upper levels. They should not trade prospects if they don't need.

The Astros aquired pitcher Darren Oliver from the Florida Marlins. As of Sunday, the Astros stand five games back in the Wild Card chase behind the San Diego Padres. Four other teams stand between the Astros and Padres. With the deadline a week away, the Astros are the team to watch this week. If they can roll off a 5-1 week by Saturday, they could get themselves back in the chase. If they falter, it might be time to start selling. The Astros host the Diamondbacks for four games this week, so they have a big opportunity to start winning games.

The Chicago White Sox learned the Magglio Ordonez's knee injury would keep him out of action up to eight weeks. The dual loss of Magglio Ordonez and Frank Thomas puts a serious crimp in the White Sox offense. Carl Everett will soothe the loss of Thomas, but the loss of Magglio Ordonez hurts the White Sox far more, as they have little with which to replace him. Timo Perez and his .306 OBP hardly conjours images of greatness at the plate. Willie Harris can play the outfield, but I am convinced he is not a capable hitter. That leaves Pedro Cerrano (Ross Gload). Also not the best hitter. If only the White Sox had a big-time outfield prospect like Jeremy Reed. In any case, the Sox are going to need all of their hitters to come through if they expect to win the AL Central.

Finally, a handful of notable players made their big league debuts this week. The Orioles' John Maine made his first start on Friday, giving up four runs in 3 2/3 innings. Maine is quite possibly the best prospect in the O's system, and it will be interesting to see how he progresses. Grady Sizemore debuted for the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday. Sizemore was already the youngest player in the International League. At the age of 21, he looks to be the Indians' center fielder of the future. He is definately a star on the rise. Finally, the Mets called up third baseman David Wright. Wright has shot up like a rocket from AA this season, and most think he is the best third base prospect in baseball. He is another young newcomer on which to keep an eye.

Congratulations to Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley on their inductions into Baseball's Hall of Fame. I'll be back next week for trade analysis and analysis of the NL's also-rans.

Alan Keiper