Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's TRADE DEADLINE MLB Report for August 2nd Posted by Alan Keiper on Aug 1, 2004, 20:33

TRADE DEADLINE

Lots of interesting trades this weekend. We will evaluate the moves team by team and estimate their potential impact. And in honor of this momentous occasion, I am spell-checking this baby!

The New York Mets traded their farm system for two pitchers.

It sounds like an exaggeration, and perhaps it is. However, it is not far from the truth. In their first trade, the New York Mets traded away IF Ty Wigginton, Minor League pitcher Matt Peterson, and catcher Justin Huber in exchange for Kris Benson and a minor leaguer. Kris Benson is a free agent after the season, and many state the trade depends on whether the Mets can resign Benson. Let us face it though, Benson really is not that good. His ERA is 4.22, and his K rate is only 5.64 per nine innings.

Ty Wigginton is expendable now that David Wright is on the club. He is a decent hitter, but first basemen are easy to find. Matt Peterson is a decent prospect, but trading him is passable. Trading Justin Huber, however, is the straw that breaks the camel's back here. The Mets will not have Mike Piazza at catcher for much longer. Jason Phillips has stalled, and Vance Wilson is not much good. Kris Benson replaces Matt Ginter in the rotation, who had a 4.80 ERA. So in the average start, Benson will give up half a run less. The Mets will get ten starts out of Benson. For the net gain of five runs allowed, the Mets gave up three players, with two good prospects.

The Mets also traded minor league pitchers Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for SP Victor Zambrano and minor league pitcher Bartolome Fortunato. Another two pitching prospects for a pitcher with, by far, the most walks AND hits batsmen in the majors. Rick Peterson needs to be a magician for this to work, because otherwise, this move does not make the Mets ANY better.

The Mets are currently 11th in runs scored. These deals do absolutely nothing to address the Mets' poor offense. Moreover, without improving the offense, the Mets are a long shot at best to even make the playoffs, let alone make a serious run at the championship. As of Sunday, the Mets are a full 8.5 games out of the playoffs, six games below .500. This is not a contending team, and they just pissed away their future for no good reason whatsoever.

The Atlanta Braves acquired pitcher Tom Martin and cash from the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor league pitcher Matt Merricks.

The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Todd Jones and minor leaguer Brad Correll from the Cincinnati Reds for Josh Hancock and Anderson Machado. They also traded Ricky Ledee to the San Francisco Giants for RP Felix Rodriguez.

The Phillies bolstered their bullpen here, acquiring Jones and Rodriguez. I like the Rodriguez deal. Ledee is a decent player, but losing him is not going to kill the Phillies, particularly if Marlon Byrd rebounds. I am not as thrilled with the Jones acquisition. Besides the unkind comments Jones made towards homosexuals last season, I am not convinced that he is much better than Josh Hancock.

The Phillies did not do much, and I actually applaud them. This is a team with terrific prospects for the future, such as Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd, and Cole Hamels. If they do not make it this year, there is plenty of time in the future. One complaint, however. Larry Bowa must go.

The Montreal Expos acquired Francis Beltran, Alex S. Gonzalez, and Brendan Harris in exchange for Orlando Cabrera.

So let us get this straight. The Expos had a shortstop with a .298 OBP, .336 slugging, and was due for free agency. In exchange, they got a serviceable replacement, a good relief pitcher, and a damn good third base prospect. No one in the media really pays much attention to the Expos, but they are the big winners at the trade deadline. Just Harris for Cabrera straight up would have been a good trade for this squad.

The Florida Marlins acquired reliever Guillermo Mota, outfielder Juan Encarnacion, and catcher Paul Loduca from the LA Dodgers for first baseman Hee Seop Choi, minor league pitcher Bill Murphy, and starter Brad Penny. The Marlins also acquired Ismael Valdes from the SD Padres.

Juan Encarnacion replaces Hee Seop Choi in the lineup, and Paul LoDuca replaces Mike Redmond. Baseball Tonight and the mainstream media will blather on and on about the improvement the Marlins made in this deal. It is all bullshit. Juan Encarnacion is not a proven run producer. He is a bad hitter with a .235 batting average, .289 on base percentage, and 43 RBIs in 324 at bats. That leaves us with Brad Penny for Guillermo Mota. Mota's a good reliever, but he is just that, a reliever. Penny was the Marlins best starter this year, and their franchise's winningest pitcher.

Another note on the LoDuca/Choi swap. The Marlins traded Derrek Lee to get Choi. Does Derrek Lee for Paul LoDuca sound like a good trade? It does not to me. The Marlins took an intelligent trade, trading a hitter nearing free agency for a great young, inexpensive pitcher, and did the exact opposite. Whatever drugs David Samson and Jeffrey Loria took last season have worn off, and they are back to their old ways. Bad move for the Marlins.

The Chicago Cubs acquired SS Nomar Garciaparra and minor league outfielder Matt Murton for Francis Beltran, Brendan Harris, and Alex S. Gonzalez.

It is difficult not to like this deal. The Cubs had a gap at shortstop, and they filled it with one of the best in baseball. Garciaparra might have grumbled and dealt with injuries, but he also hit .321 for the Red Sox. The Cubs dealt a prospect, but got a good one in return, as Murton looks promising. Just a good deal that puts the Cubs in the driver's seat for the wild card race.

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired 3B Ty Wigginton, minor leaguer Jose Bautista, and minor league pitcher Matt Peterson from the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals in exchange for Kris Benson and minor leaguer Jeff Keppinger.

I wrote above that Benson is overrated, and with that in mind, the Pirates got a good return for him. Bautista was lost in the Rule V draft, and the Pirates get him back. Since he has sat on major league benches all year, it is hard to evaluate him. Peterson is a good pitching prospect who could make the rotation by the end of next season. Wigginton is the best piece of this trade. Its not that he is a great player, but the Pirates third base situation has been terrible, and Wigginton provides immediate help. Good trade for the Pirates.

The Cincinnati Reds acquired Josh Hancock and Anderson Machado from the Phillies for Doug Jones and minor leaguer Brad Correll.

Good move for the Reds here. Hancock is a decent prospect, who could become a middle rotation pitcher by next year, and a long reliever for the present. Andy Machado is an interesting player who cannot hit, but draws walks, steals, and plays good defense.

The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi, and minor leaguer Bill Murphy from the Marlins for Guillermo Mota, Juan Encarnacion, and Paul LoDuca. They traded Murphy, and minor leaguers Koyie Hill and Reggie Abercrombie to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Steve Finley and Brent Mayne.

Buster "Productive Outs" Olney wasted no time, pooh-poohing this trade for the Dodgers. In response I say, to hell with you. The Moneyball revolution is here, and as much as you would like to see traditional, losing baseball stick around, its time has come and gone. When phrases like "heart and soul", and stats like batting average with RISP are thrown around, rest assured you are reading your trade analysis from a complete idiot.

Now for the trade. There are many pieces here. There is no question the Dodgers are taking a risk at catcher. They lost LoDuca, and could not get Charles Johnson to accept a trade. Now they have Dave Ross and Brent Mayne to fill in. However, that is offset by taking Encarnacion out and replacing him with Hee Seop Choi. HUGE upgrade. It should be noted that the Jayson Werth acquisition allowed them to trade Encarnacion. Why Werth? Because he is the kind of player smart organizations take a flyer on, rather than sign someone like Raul Mondesi. The Finley trade gives them some added depth, and allows the Dodgers to play matchups if needed.

As for Penny for Mota, it is the same thing I stated in the Marlins comment. Mota is JUST A RELIEVER. Penny becomes the Dodgers best starter. This gives them two solid frontline guys. The Nasty Boys type bullpen is broken up? What good was that when Jeff Weaver was the #2 starter? The Dodgers will slide a rotation guy into the bullpen, give Gagne the ball in the eighth in the playoffs, and not miss a beat. This trade is a WIN for the Dodgers.

The San Francisco Giants acquired Ricky Ledee from the Phillies in exchange for Felix Rodriguez.

The San Diego Padres acquired infielder Dave Hansen from the Mariners for pitcher Jon Huber.

I have nothing here. Hansen will not influence the pennant race.

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired Koyie Hill, Bill Murphy, and Reggie Abercrombie for Steve Finley and Brent Mayne.

The D'backs received more headlines for what they did not do. They held on to star pitcher Randy Johnson. I think the Diamondbacks were handcuffed by Johnson's no trade clause, and if they could not get a good deal from the Yankees, then they had no good reason to trade him. Johnson is signed through 2005, and Arizona can always explore trade possibilities over the off-season.

As for the trade, I wrote above that Arizona has a good center fielder in AAA. They get a few B-C level farmhands in return for Finley. Not a bad swag. They needed minor league depth, and they got it. Good trade for the Padres.

The New York Yankees acquired Esteban Loaiza from the White Sox in exchange for Jose Contreras.

Contreras had potential, but he blew up like a roman candle whenever the pressure mounted. Loaiza is overrated. His 2003 sticks out like a sore thumb, and he's currently pitching closer to his established levels. Here is the big problem. The Yankees fans bitched about Contreras' inconsistency. You want consistency? Loaiza has not given up less than four runs in a start since June 17. He has been hammered as of late, and I am not sure the Yankees can rely on a turnaround.

The Boston Red Sox acquired Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz in exchange for Matt Murton and Nomar Garciaparra. The Sox also acquired Dave Roberts from the Dodgers for Henri Stanley.

How can a team run by professed stat heads, with Bill James on staff no less, do something so utterly stupid? Who gives a flying fuck if Nomar was cranky? He hit .321. Orlando Cabrera has a barking bat and a sub .300 on base percentage. Cabrera represents a 233 point drop in OPS. That is insane. No amount of defense makes up for that. If Cabrera was Ozzie Smith, and Nomar were Butch Hobson, it still would not make it excusable. And Doug Mientkiewicz? Sox fans bitched about Millar, but they will accept this guy? Mientkiewicz is constantly injured, and he is slugging .363. There is a place for first basemen who slug .363. It is called Double A. There is no way in hell this trade makes the Sox any better. AND on top of that, they gave up one of their better prospects. This trade flat out sucks for the Red Sox.

Moreover, I think it is safe to say the Moneyball era has been aborted in Boston. Idiocy from the media and from certain fans has doomed the Sox into doing things the "right" way, rather than the successful way. The "right" way, expressed by the Sox media for the last 76 years, has failed. You would think an organization with such a drought would be open to new ideas. But the weight of old thinking has crushed Theo Epstein, and he has given in.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays bent the NY Mets over a railing and acquired Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz in exchange for Victor Zambrano.

The Devil Rays parted with the winningest pitcher in franchise history. As an aside, Randy Johnson is now the only all time winningest pitcher for any franchise still pitching with said franchise. Anyway, Zambrano led the majors in walks, and for any other franchise, he would be designated for assignment by now. For the Devil Rays, Zambrano nets one of baseball's ten best pitching prospects AND another pitching prospect in return. Kazmir has the potential to be Tampa's ace for a long time. Big time win for the Devil Rays.

The Minnesota Twins acquired minor leaguer Justin Jones in exchange for Doug Mientkiewicz.

Just a salary/player dump for the Twins. Morneau is proving that he can indeed hit major league pitching, so Mientkiewicz became expendable. Kudos to the Twins for their willingness to play a young hitter in a pennant race.

The Chicago White Sox acquired Jose Contreras from the Yankees in exchange for Esteban Loaiza.

This trade represents a mixed bag for the White Sox. Right off the bat, I think this trade represents White Flag '04. The White Sox have realized they are doomed without either Magglio Ordonez or Frank Thomas, and it is time to think towards the future. Loaiza is a free agent after this season, and is sinking fast, having given up more than three runs every start since June 16. Contreras is an interesting pitcher to get in return. On one hand, his peripherals are good, and Contreras does get many strikeouts. On the other hand, he is expensive, inconsistent, and homer prone. Remember my rant on Freddy Garcia? Contreras has surrendered 22 home runs in 95 2/3 innings pitched, and he is going to the most prominent home run park in the American League. Call this trade a loss for the White Sox. They would have been better off just saving the cash.

The Kansas City Royals acquired minor league catcher Justin Huber in exchange for Jose Bautista.

The Royals have Mark Teahan as their third baseman of the future, leaving Bautista expendable. John Buck has not inspired confidence at catcher, and I fear he is another Toby Hall type. Huber gives the Royals another potential catcher. Best of all, they can option him to the minors. As a Rule V pick, the Royals were forced to keep Jose Bautista on the big league roster, weakening the team as a whole. Definitely a nifty little trade for the Royals.

The Seattle Mariners acquired Jon Huber from the Padres for Dave Hansen.

See my thoughts above in the Padres' paragraph. This move has no real future implications.

The Texas Rangers acquired Scott Erickson from the Mets for a PTBNL.

Essentially the Rangers get some rotation insurance. With Ricardo Rodriguez and R.A. Dickey on the Disabled List, they were in desperate need of live arms.

The Anaheim Angels terminated the contract of Raul Mondesi.

Not really a trade, but deserves mention. I defended Raul Mondesi in the past. I will not do so again. Mondesi has twice pissed away a million dollar contract this season. I hope he realizes he will never again earn anything more than a non-roster invite. His days as a big money player are over. If it is any consolation, Mario Guerrero earns less money as well.

NON TRADERS

The St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, and Oakland Athletics did not make any trades.

I am going to group these into four categories. Number One is the teams that did not need trades, the Cardinals and the Athletics. The Cards are ten games up in their division. Barring a MAJOR collapse, they are making the postseason. Analysts will fret over their lack of a true ace, but their pitching is third in the National League. They are good enough right now to win the pennant. The Athletics are in a tighter race, but their team is complete right now, and they have enough good minor leaguers (Adam Morrissey, Dan Johnson, Joe Blanton) that they can patch holes from within.

Category two is the teams that did not have any good trade possibilities. The Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles. The Astros are caught in a tight spot. They cannot give up the wild card chase just yet. I think if they hold on to Carlos Beltran, they can do just fine by getting compensation draft picks for him. The Orioles are not quite rebuilding, and not quite contending. Moreover, they do not have anyone outside their bullpen whom teams are interested in for the stretch run. Their value is limited, and they are probably better off re-evaluating their position over the off-season.

Category three includes teams in rebuilding modes, which have no real veterans they need to unload, and have most of what they need. These teams include the Indians, Tigers, Blue Jays and Brewers. Sure, the Indians could have traded Vizquel and the Tigers could have traded Urbina, but these are minor issues. The non-movement of these franchises holds little consequence for the future.

Category four is reserved for the Rockies. The Rockies had deals in place for Charles Johnson and Larry Walker, but both players exercised their no-trade clauses. It is hard to blame them, especially Johnson, whose value falls drastically if he leaves Coors Field for Dodger Stadium. I do not know what deals were in place, but it is just worth mentioning.

THE REST OF THE SEASON

So with all the activity, who are the favorites? Let us take a look.

National League East: The Braves are the easy favorites at this point in the season. At 5 1/2 games behind, the Phillies or the Marlins will need to be significantly better than the Braves to win. I am not saying it is not impossible, but we are talking favorites here. The Braves are also the only team in the division to score more runs than they have allowed.

National League Central: Cardinals.

National League West: Can the Dodgers continue with their heart and soul ripped out from under them? Who knows, but its worth noting that their heart and soul never made the postseason, and its most similar comp at age 31 is Brian Harper. Meanwhile, the soulless remains are run by Paul DePodesta, who comes from an organization that has not missed the postseason in four years. I give the edge to the team that made trade deadline improvements, and holds a 3.5 game head start. The Padres should give them a run, but I do not think the Giants have it this season.

National League wild card: Right now the Padres hold a one game lead over the Cubs, with the Giants 1.5 games back, and the Phillies, Astros, and Marlins grouped around five games back. With the Garciaparra acquisition, I think the Cubs are in the driver's seat here. The Phillies and Astros can make a run, but they are long shots. So are the Marlins, who are vastly overrated due to the trade. The Cubs, by far, have the best run differential in the group.

American League East: The Yankees hold a 9.5 game edge, and while the Sox are an equally good team, even given the Nomar trade, that is too deep of a deficit for the Sox to overcome.

American League Central: The Twins have opened a five game lead on the Chicago White Sox. With the White Sox losing their two best pitchers, the division looks wide open for the Twins. If any team challenges them, it may be the Cleveland Indians, who have an outside shot if their pitching pulls together.

American League West: Let me just say that when everyone else jumped on the Anaheim Angels bandwagon, I stood by the Oakland Athletics. It is the 1st of August, and they sit in first place. They are not a sure thing, however, and this could be the most exciting pennant race of the season. The Rangers are a mere 1.5 games back, the Angels just 2.5 games back, and both are good in their own right. The Athletics are favorites solely on the virtue of their 1.5 game lead. This one could come down to the wire.

American League wild card: Three teams to worry about here. The Rangers, Angels, and Red Sox. I think the Sox are easy favorites here. Their run differential is actually better than the Yankees� are, and they have the best pythagorean win/loss record in the American League. That bodes well for future success, and I think the Sox are favorites.

That covers all the news for this week. Remember, half the fun is the chase, so keep watching the games and try to enjoy them, even if you are a Phillies booster like me. Keep an eye out next week for my analysis of the National League's also-rans, and (maybe) Greg Maddux's 300th win.

Send feedback to: Alan Keiper