Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's Baseball Report for August 9th Posted by Alan Keiper on Aug 8, 2004, 20:23

GREG MADDUX WINS #300

On Saturday, Greg Maddux became just the 22nd pitcher in Major League history to win 300 or more games, as the Chicago Cubs defeated the San Francisco Giants. Many pundits are quick to assume Maddux is the last of the 300 game winners. He might be. The problem is the assumption that 300 win pitchers are a casualty of today's modern offenses. This is not the case. Check out this list of 300 game winners. The year they won their 300th game is in parenthesis.

Greg Maddux (2004)
Roger Clemens (2003)

Nolan Ryan (1990)
Don Sutton (1986)
Phil Niekro (1985)
Tom Seaver (1985)
Steve Carlton (1983)
Gaylord Perry (1982)

Early Wynn (1963)
Warren Spahn (1961)
Lefty Grove (1941)

Grover Alexander (1924)
Walter Johnson (1920)
Eddie Plank (1915)
Christy Mathewson (1912)
Cy Young (1901)
Kid Nichols (1900)
John Clarkson (1892)
Old Hoss Radbourn (1891)
Tim Keefe (1890)
Mickey Welch (1890)
Pud Galvin (1888)

Baseball had two decades in the 1960s and 70s where pitchers reigned supreme, and threw insane numbers of innings. This resulted in six 300 game winners in the span of just nine years. Before that, however, baseball had just three 300 game winners from one dead ball era to the others. Only five 300 game winners (Maddux, Clemens, Wynn, Grove, Spahn) did not benefit from an enhanced pitchers' era of some sort. To me, this indicates two things. One, 300 wins is not the Holy Grail of pitching, and for most eras, a lower win total is the pinnacle of achievement. For today's era, 250 wins is comparable to winning 300 games in the era of Steve Carlton or Walter Johnson.

Second, that Maddux HAS won 300 games is nothing short of incredible. Not only has Maddux won 300, but he has also won over 63% of his decisions. He's won four Cy Young awards, and placed for five others. His adjusted ERA is ninth in baseball history. And while Maddux is not viewed as a strikeout artist, he ranks in the top 15 in career strikeouts. The argument has long surpassed HOF worthiness, and now the question is where does Maddux rank among the All-Time great pitchers? I'd rank him among the top six, alongside Walter Johnson, Grover Alexander, Roger Clemens, Cy Young, and Lefty Grove. He is just wall-to-wall excellent. Congratulations Greg Maddux.

OLYMPIC BASEBALL

The Olympic games are once again upon us, and that means Olympic baseball. After a gold medal performance last season, the United States failed to qualify for the games thanks to an arcane qualifying system. That may sound like sour grapes, but that is all there is to it. No responsible qualifying system for baseball should be single-elimination. All baseball fans know the hazards of playing a single game, and upsets are as easy in baseball as any other sport. But in any case, there are still plenty of quality players in the tournament, and it should be alot of fun. Full rosters were unavailable as of yet, so I am working with preliminary rosters, and trying to identify the best players to keep an eye on.

Australia

The Australians bring an interesting pitching staff to the game. The starting pitching is spearheaded by Chris Oxspring (3.87 ERA for AAA Portland), and John Stephens (4.42 ERA for AAA Pawtucket). Oxspring is a nice prospect for the Padres, and Stephens is an interesting pitcher. Stephens has very nice strikeout and walk statistics, but he is extremely homer prone. The bullpen features MLB veteran Graeme Lloyd. Their catching is excellent, featuring Royals prospect Justin Huber, and veteran Dave Nilsson. In the field, young Twins outfield prospect Trent Oeltjen is worth a look.

Cuba

Cuba is a perennial Olympic powerhouse as they never lose players to the majors, unless they defect. Nonetheless, Baseball America considers them the Gold Medal favorite, and I see no reason to disagree. I am not very knowledgeable about Cuban baseball, so trying to identify the key players would only be a disservice. Just keep an eye out for great players you may never see again.

Italy

Italy presents a fairly nondescript team. They have no players currently in the MLB minor league system, and only a handful have any American experience at all. None of the Italians have any prospects for reaching the majors in the future. This is essentially an All-Star team of the Italian professional leagues.

Japan

The Japanese team is one of the strongest baseball teams in the tournament. Japan features several terrific Japanese league players, including two time Pacific League batting champion Michihiro Ogasawara, last year's Pacific league MVP Kenji Jojima, and last year's Pacific League ERA leader Daisuke Matsuzaka. Along with Cuba, Japan is one of the favorites in this year's competition.

Netherlands

The Dutch team is similar to the Italian team in that it consists mostly of players from the Dutch professional leagues. Baseball America expects that Mariners' prospect Wladimir Balentien, and Twins' prospect Alexander Smit will make the team. Balentien is a toolsy project, and Smit is young, so their prospects are difficult to project.

Taiwan

Taiwan features a promising team, featuring twenty-five players sharing the same name. That is not entirely accurate, but it sounded good. Chin-Feng Chen is a decent prospect in the Dodgers' organization, hitting .300 for AAA Las Vegas. Yankee fans will want to keep an eye on Chien-Ming Wang, currently a prospect in AAA Columbus.

Greece

Greece is an interesting team, as they feature many Americans of Greek origin, as opposed to native Greeks. Bizarre Olympic rules allow this to happen, and since Greece is the host country, they may place a team in any sport they wish. Some say this team has the potential to surprise, but I honestly think they will not go very far. Of interest, Orioles prospect Nick Markakis will play the outfield, and former Yankees utility man Clay Bellinger.

Canada

Quite a few names fill out the Canadian roster. Former outfield reserve Rob Ducey, personal favorite minor league vet Stubby Clapp, Jason Dickson, Aaron Myette, Paul Spoljaric, Blue Jays fringe prospect Simon Pond, and Devil Rays prospect Pete LaForest. Chief among them is Rockies pitching prospect Jeff Francis. He is one of the top five pitching prospects in baseball, and probably the best pitcher in the entire tournament.

TRADE DEADLINE? WHAT TRADE DEADLINE

The MLB trading deadline expired on Saturday, but teams can still make trades as long as the players first clear waivers. Many of the trades involve players to be named later and cash considerations, so it is difficult to make a full assessment of the deals. So we will simply analyze each trade from the point of view of the team which gained the player.

The Cleveland Indians acquired Josh Phelps from the Toronto Blue Jays. Phelps has stagnated in the last year and a half, so a change of scenery may do him some good. It is doubtful he will have much of an impact on the AL Central race. The Blue Jays likely will not miss him greatly, as DH is a relatively easy position to fill.

The Boston Red Sox acquired Mike Myers from the Seattle Mariners. Myers is a situational lefty, who pitches fairly well against lefties, but is absolutely shelled by righties. Myers will likely face about 25-30 batters for the Sox, so I see his impact as minimal.

The St. Louis Cardinals acquired Larry Walker from the Colorado Rockies. Walker is an impact hitter, fully capable of hitting 300/400/550 for the Cardinals. He'll replace the Cards left field by committee, and greatly improves their already capable offense. Once again, the talking heads will downgrade the Cardinals for their lack of an ace starter, but I think its overstated. Pitching and defense matters, but it does not "win championships." You need a combination of offense and defense. The Cards offense should carry them far.

The Chicago White Sox acquired Roberto Alomar from the Arizona Diamondbacks. This is a good move for the White Sox. Their infield has been quite suspect this season, as Jose Valentin and Joe Crede have post sub .300 OBPs, and Willie Harris is slugging just .312. If the White Sox were to make a run at the postseason, this would be a good move for them. However, as of this writing the Sox are 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, and seven out of the division. With Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez gone, I do not see it happening.

Last week I planned to complete the second part of my analysis of baseball's "also ran" teams, and their prospects for next season. Due to the length of the trade deadline column, however, it was bumped. I present it here for your consideration.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

What went wrong?: First, they made a pair of disasterous trades. The Diamondbacks traded pitcher Curt Schilling to the Boston Red Sox for pitchers Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa. Then they turned around and traded De La Rosa, Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano, and Lyle Overbay to the Milwaukee Brewers for Richie Sexson and Shane Nance. Sexson hit well before landing on the disabled list, to which we will come back. In any case, using Win Shares as a guide, the players the Diamondbacks traded away have earned 52 Win Shares, and the players they traded away earned four. That works out to sixteen wins the Diamondbacks traded. The second problem the Diamondbacks had is that their replacements for the players they traded were inadequate. Robby Hammock hit 213/263/355 before landing on the DL in early-July. New second baseman Roberto Alomar landed on the DL early in the season, and has missed 2/3 of the season. Alomar has lost the starting job to Scott Hairston, who hits only well enough to keep his head above water. Alex Cintron, who had a surprising debut season in 2003, crashed to earth, hitting 244/291/360 through July 26.

Many point to the Sexson trade as the turning point, but it should be noted that while Arizona ranks 14th in the National League in runs scored, Milwaukee ranks 15th. The problem is not that the Diamondbacks gave away quality players. Only Lyle Overbay would suffice on a championship team. The problem was a complete lack of depth, exacerbated by the Sexson injury. The biggest mistake was trading Schilling. Free agent or not, the loss of Schilling has crippled the pitching staff. Randy Johnson has anchored the staff, and Brandon Webb, while having regressed from last season, is still reasonably good. After those two, however, the Diamondbacks' starters are absolutely terrible. Steve Sparks, Casey Fossum, Casey Daigle, Elmer Dessens, Andrew Good, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier have all posted ERAs above five. The bullpen has been a disaster, with Matt Mantei, Jose Valverde, and Oscar Villarreal all currently sitting on the Disabled List.

The team's two best players are Johnson and Luis Gonzalez. Gonzalez is scheduled to have elbow surgery in early-August, which will keep him out for the season. After those two the Win Shares leaders are Steve Finley, Danny Bautista, Shane Hillenbrand, Brandon Webb, and Chad Tracy. We haven't found out if Steve Finley and Randy Johnson will be traded. If both leave, this club could make a serious run at the 1962 New York Mets. There is simply nothing here.

UPDATE: The Diamondbacks are sitting at 35-77. They need to finish 5-45 to catch the 1962 New York Mets. I think they will do better than that at least. Randy Johnson will stick around through the season, giving them a fighting chance at avoiding 110 losses.

So what are the team's prospects for the future? It is tough to evaluate their prospects because their AAA team, the Tuscon Sidewinders, are the beneficiaries of one of the best offensive park factors in baseball. Luis Terrero will likely take over the center field job in the near future. On the pitching side, any AAA pitcher with any credibility has already been called up to the Diamondbacks. So there does not appear to be much help on the horizon. This is the eventual consequence of a "win now" strategy. If there is any team that should blow up and rebuild, this is it.

MONTREAL EXPOS

What went wrong?: A complete lack of offense. The Expos lost Vladimir Guerrero over the offseason. They acquired Juan Rivera in trade, and hoped that minor leaguer Termell Sledge could fill the gap. Both have been failures, failing to top even .400 slugging. The Expos signed Carl Everett to play center. Everett played just 39 games, hit poorly, and was traded a few weeks ago. As a consequence, weak hitting Endy Chavez is still the team's everyday center fielder. In the same trade that garnered the team Rivera, the Expos also acquired first baseman Nick Johnson. Johnson has battled injuries however, and has not matched the production the Expos earned last year from Wil Cordero. Orlando Cabrera, after a breakthrough season last year, collapsed, hitting just 244/297/332. Finally, the Expos signed Tony Batista to play third. Batista looked like an upgrade over the patch-work trio of Jamey Carroll, Fernando Tatis, and Todd Zeile. However, Batista has posted an abysmal .267 OBP, the next to worst in the Majors. As these calamities have combined to make the Expos, by far, the worst offensive team in baseball.

The lack of depth in the farm system compounded the Expos' woes. In the last two seasons, the Expos have traded away Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, Carl Pavano, and others in return for big name talent in an effort to gain credibility. As a result, the farm system is virtually barren. Ryan Church could take over in right field by next year. After that, however, the Expos don't have many position prospects of note. Larry Broadway looked promising, but has struggled in AA this season.

The Expos need to upgrade their offense to get back into the hunt. In order to do that, they need to re-staff their farm system. The easiest way to do that is to draft college players, who will reach the majors earlier than high school players. The Expos need to cut Orlando Cabrera and Tony Batista after the season, and find cheap, suitable replacements. They desperately need to find an upgrade over Endy Chavez in center field. More than anything, however, they need an owner, and a solid plan. Bud Selig needs to stop leading this team on, and needs to find them a home.

COLORADO ROCKIES

What went wrong?: The myth is that the Colorado Rockies can not win at high altitude. The truth is that the Rockies can win at Coors Field. They have won at Coors Field for most of their history. The problem is they can not win on the road. Over the last five years from 2000-04, they have posted winning records at home in four of those years. However, they have never won more than 34 games (42%) on the road.

What causes this problem? It has puzzled everyone from Rockies executives, to fans, to even the most proficient baseball analysts. One popular theory is that the Rockies' pitchers wear down due to the hazards of pitching in thin air. An analysis of the Rockies' month by month splits doesn't really indicate a weardown as the season progresses. The Rockies are an abysmal 49-88 (.358) in July from 1999-2003, but their record improves to .476 in August over the same period.

Here's my theory, and keep in mind this is simply a theory. The Rockies allow their home park to hide the deficiencies in their talent, and they end up keeping sub-par players in their lineup. Most hitters look good on their team, and bad pitching performances are dismissed as part of the game. That said, let us take a look at the Rockies' away statistics to see what we can find. Royce Clayton and Vinny Castilla are trumpeted as successes for the Rockies. But both are absolutely terrible on the road. Royce Clayton is hitting just 243/293/312 away from Coors, and Vinny Castilla is hitting 201/264/436 on the road. Matt Holliday is hitting .231, and Preston Wilson is hitting .215. As an aside, Todd Helton is hitting 326/441/581, showing that he is not an illusion of Coors Field.

Their pitching staff currently consists of Joe Kennedy (injured), Aaron Cook, Jeff Fassero, Shawn Estes, and Jason Jennings. Quite honestly, that staff would not even look good in Dodger Stadium. Outside of Joe Kennedy, none have very good peripherals. So what do the Rockies need to do? Quite simply, and this is just my theory, they need to ignore the park factors, and just acquire better players. Exercise caution with pitchers with high home run rates, and make sure you have an athlete in center field. Otherwise, just build as would any other team. The Rockies do have hope on the horizon. Jeff Francis is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and only the Canadian Olympic team is keeping him in the minors. In three starts at AAA Colorado Springs, he's 2-1 with an 0.93 ERA in 19 innings, 27 strikeouts, and just one walk. Combined with his performance in AA, Francis is 15-2 in the minor leagues this season. Watch for him in September at the latest.

Chin-hui Tsao has battled injuries this season, but remains a solid pitching prospect. If both he and Francis develop, they could give the Rockies a solid foundation for the future. Jason Young is another Rockies pitcher on the rise. Third baseman Jeff Baker is a solid third base prospect. If the kids develop, the Rockies could surprise fans in the future, especially since the other Western division teams are weaker in their farm systems.

That does it for this week. Stop back next week.

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