Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's MLB Report for August 16th Posted by Alan Keiper on Aug 15, 2004, 20:02

We have got lots to cover this week, so let us get right to it.

OWNERS TO RENEW SELIG

Next weekend the MLB owners are meeting in Philadelphia, and the first order of business is reportably to give Bud Selig a three year contract extension, extending his term through 2009. I have said it many times before, but it bears repeating. Bud Selig is the worst figure to enter baseball in the last twenty-five years. His failure to offer the players' union a fair and just agreement robbed baseball of the 1994 postseason. The wild card has made a mockery of divisional races. The extended playoffs have made it easier for great teams to lose out to weaker teams, thus giving us the Anaheim Angels and Florida Marlins as World Champions. And if you are a fan of those teams, I apologize, but the fact is they were not the best teams in their own divisions. Selig repeatedly lied about baseball finances in the face of Congress, independant analysts, and even Forbes Magazine. Selig's performance in front of Congress several years ago brought shame upon the game.

Bud Selig repeatedly bullshit about competitive balance, when the truth was that it was never a problem. Now that it has been effectively disproved, Selig claims it was his solutions that fixed it. Meanwhile, the luxury tax not only failed to keep the Yankees' payroll in check, it effectively crashed and burned, as the Yankees' payroll has doubled in the last five years. Bud Selig allowed an inane team sale to go through, as he allowed John Henry to purchase the Red Sox, Jeffrey Loria to purchase the Marlins, and for MLB to control the Expos, thus leaving the good fans of Montreal high and dry as baseball controls their franchise. The obvious conflict of interest of having one team owned by the other twenty-nine is blinding, and its disgraceful that it has continued for almost three years.

Bud Selig attempted to contract two teams, claiming finances (bullshit) and competitive balance (bullshit) as the cause. It was little more than blackmail on the part of Selig and the owners to coerce cities into building brand new stadiums. He convinced several cities, namely Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, into building new stadiums, claiming they were needed to compete. Not only did the stadiums fail to improve their teams, they also failed to induce additional spending on payroll.

And now we are stuck with this ass for another three years. It is time to face facts. The commissioner is not an independant arbitrator of the game. He is a spokesman for the owners. Unless we somehow find a way to replace all twenty-nine owners, Selig is not going anywhere, nor will his replacement look any better. The time has come to take the commissioner's position off of a pedistal. He is little more than a tool.

In other meeting topics, the owners will discuss the Baseball World Cup, and MLB TV. The World Cup has been tossed around for several years now, but nothing has been finalized, and it is doubtful it will occur next season. 2006 looks more likely. One major sticking point is that Japan is uncomfortable with having MLB and the MLBPA call the shots. Personally, I am apathetic towards a World Cup. I have the feeling the Cup will be little more than the baseball we are all used to, with shuffled rosters. MLB TV is an idea similar to NBA TV, or whatever the NFL produces. On the surface, it seems like common sense.

WHEN YOUR TEAM STINKS

As visitors to our forums are aware, I am a devout Phillies fan. So it disheartens me to realize that the Phillies' season is essentially lost. Sure, they are only 3.5 games out of the wild card, but Phillies fans are conditioned to expect the worst, and besides, the Cubs have a much greater run differential. That is the pain of being a smart baseball fan. You are the first to realize when it is over.

Still, seasons come and go, and I know better than to over-react. What is maddening is the recent series of moves the club has made in the last two weeks. The team traded Ricky Ledee to the San Francisco Giants for Felix Rodriguez. That is perfectly fine. Ledee is not a prospect, you can find another player like him, and the Phillies bullpen needed help. Moreover, Rodriguez has pitched extremely well since joining the Phillies. However, Ed Wade also traded Josh Hancock to the Cincinnati Reds for Todd Jones. Apparently you can not find enough mediocre relievers. Josh Hancock is a reasonably good prospect, and could be a decent fourth or fifth starter someday. Todd Jones is 36, and is hardly a great reliever anymore. He is fast on the way towards becoming Jose Mesa III, and worse, Larry Bowa feels compelled to use him every single day. There is nothing worse than trading appreciable prospects for mediocre relievers, and it shows.

The best came earlier this week. The Phillies traded prospects Javon Moran, Joe Wilson, AND Elizardo Ramirez to the Reds for pitcher Cory Lidle. Seriously, CORY F'N LIDLE?! Since when did a 5.32 ERA become something for which you trade THREE prospects?! A 5.67 K/9 rate? Twenty-five home runs in 154 innings? To sum up the trade, the Phillies traded three prospects for ten starts from a mediocre pitcher. Ever wonder how those stathead A's, with their Moneyball mumbo-jumbo, keep winning the AL West? It is because they figured out that Cory Lidle is not a pitcher for which you trade appreciable talent. And before anyone mentions the 2001 trade, Lidle was the third best player they got in the deal. The Phillies really need to learn the different between quality and replacement level talent.

PENNANT RACE UPDATE

Two weeks ago, I looked at each division and handicapped the races. We will make this a weekly occurance for the remainder of the season, as the races develop.

AL East: The New York Yankees hold a 10.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox. Barring a miracle run from the Sox, the Yankees should coast to their seventh consecutive division crown.

AL Central: Two weeks ago, I wrote that the Indians had an outside shot. Little did we know. The Indians managed high time drama in Cleveland this weekend, as they pulled within three games of the Twins, and took the first two games of a head-to-head series. Sunday, the Twins and Indians went extra innings before the Twins pulled ahead. If the Indians had won, they would have shared the division lead. But now, with the Indians two games back, we just may have a race on our hands. Cleveland travels to Texas, and the Twins host the Yankees. This weekend, the Twins host a three game series against the Indians. These are definately some games to keep an eye on. Moreover, the Indians are very capable of taking this division. Also keep an eye on the Chicago White Sox, who are not quite out of the race.

AL West: The Oakland Athletics hold a slim half game lead on both the Texas Rangers and the Anaheim Angels. A peak at the pythagorean records indicates a slight advantage for Oakland, with the emphasis on slight. To begin the week, the Rangers host the Indians, the Athletics travel to Baltimore, and the Angels travel to Tampa Bay, all for three games. This weekend, the Angels travel to New York, the Athletics travel to Tampa Bay, and the Rangers travel to Kansas City.

AL wild card: Anaheim, Texas, and Boston are all tied for the wild card lead. Cleveland sits 2.5 games back, and the White Sox sit 4.5 games back. Boston hosts the Blue Jays and than travels to Chicago to face the White Sox. Otherwise we have covered the other teams. I think the Red Sox are the prohibitive favorites in this race.

NL East: The Braves hold an eight game lead over the Marlins and Phillies. At this point, the Braves look likely to win their tenth consecutive division championship. How did they do it this time? They have terrific up the middle players in Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal, and Andruw Jones. J.D. Drew has stayed healthy and post the monster numbers he has always been capable of. Johnny Estrada hit .323, completely surpassing the expectations of analysts, and making the Millwood trade look foolish the other way around. In addition, their pitching is once again great. This is where Andruw Jones deserves credit. I truly believe he is the best defensive center fielder of all time, and that seemingly ever pitcher performs well in Atlanta, I have to think he is part of the cause.

NL Central: The Cardinals have opened a 13.5 game lead, which is all but insurmountable. Have you ever listened to a sport fan explain why their team is the favorite, because of A, B and C? They will tell you that player A will hit like he did in his career year, pitcher B will stay healthy this time, and player C will have his breakout season. That is essentially what has happened with the Cardinals. Everyone has exceeded expectations here. NO ONE thought Tony Womack would hit well, or that Roger Cedeno would return to his 1999 hitting form, or that Ray Lankford would do much of anything. Their pitching staff is criticized as lacking a true ace, but fans often forget that the Cardinals' defense is outstanding, and even teams with great pitchers lack that defense. At this point, the Cardinals are as dangerout a team as we will see in the postseason.

NL West: Two weeks ago, the Dodgers traded their heart and soul. How could any team survive such a crippling trade? Somehow, the Dodgers are 6.5 games ahead in the NL West. Of note: new acquisition Steve Finley has hit .467 since joining the Dodgers.

NL wild card: On the eve of the 1945 World Series, a sportswriter was asked who would win between the Cubs and the Tigers. The scribe responded, "I don't think either team can win." Listen to Cubs and Phillies fans, and this chase becomes a war of attrition, simply a battle of which teams does not fall apart. In any case, the Cubs, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants are locked in a dead heat for first place. The Phillies and Marlins sit 4.5 games back. The Giants draw a good week, hosting the Expos and then the Mets.

San Francisco's calling us, the Giants and Mets will play. Piazza, New York catcher, are you straight or are you gay?
Belle & Sebastian's "Piazza, New York Catcher"

Back to reality, the Padres host the Braves and then the Marlins. The Chicago Cubs travel to Milwaukee and than to Houston. Looking at run differentials, I think the Cubs are still the favorites to take the wild card.

EDGAR FOR THE HALL?

One of the big news items of the week was the retirement of Edgar Martinez. Martinez will leave the Mariners after this season, leaving behind a legacy of excellent hitting. With Martinez's retirement imminent, the big discussion is whether Martinez deserves induction into baseball's highest honor, the Baseball Hall of Fame. Detractors cite Edgar's short career and subsequent lack of counting stats, and that Martinez was primarily a designated hitter for most of his career. Supporters cite Edgar's superior hitting statistics. Personally, I support Martinez for the Hall.

Before we begin, let me explain the various statistical devices I will reference in this column.

OPS: Simply On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage. It provides a quick 'n' dirty measure of overall production.

OPS+: OPS, adjusted for home park and normalized to the league average. It is then presented as a number, where 100 is considered average, 110 is 10% better, and so on.

BR/A: Batting Runs above average, adjusted for park. This stat measures how many runs a hitter creates beyond the contributions of an average hitter. Batting runs issues weights for various hitting events.

RC: Runs Created. Similar to Batting runs, except the formula is more detailed, and the baseline is zero. The formula is proven as if you were to run it for each individual on a team, the result would come very close to the team's actual runs scored.

RC/27: Runs Created over 27 Outs. Essentially, this stat answers the question, "how many runs per game would a team score if it had nine batters who hit like this?"

Win Shares: Win Shares attempts to separate an individual player's contribution to wins from those of his team. From Total Baseball, "Win Shares starts with the team's wins, and works backwards, figuring out a way to apportion those wins among the teams players." Win Shares divides wins among offense and defense, from defense among pitching and fielding, and from fielding among individual positions. They are then apportioned among individual players. Wins are multiplied by three to create Win Shares.

TPW Total Player Wins. Similar to Win Shares, with two exceptions. One, TPW starts with the league average, and issues a positive or negative number. Two, TPW starts with a player's statistics, instead of ending there.

If you are confused by any of this, feel free to drop me an e-mail.

Edgar Martinez was not just a good hitter. He was a historically great hitter. Look at his OBP heading into this season. Martinez post a .423 OBP, good for 17th on the All-Time list. That is better than Stan Musial, Wade Boggs, and many others considered among the game's All-Time greats. If you think Edgar Martinez benefit from playing in the offensive era of the 1990s, consider his OPS+. Edgar ranks 32nd All-Time. That ranks above Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner, Ralph Kiner, Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, and many other great hitters. Martinez ranks far above his peers, as we shall see later. And he also rates favorably among the current crop of Hall of Famers, which we shall also observe.

Of course, Edgar Martinez played as a designated hitter after he turned 32. Should that effect his HOF opportunity? In my opinion, no. The designated hitter is part of the game. A team without a strong designated hitter puts itself at a disadvantage, just as they would without a good center fielder, catcher, or shortstop. Edgar Martinez created runs as a designated hitter, which translated into wins. He held value as a designated hitter, so I do not believe it should be held against him. In addition, Edgar DID play third base throughout the minor leagues and for several years in the Major Leagues, until he turned 32. Martinez played the field for ten years, so it is not as if he held no defensive value whatsoever.

Edgar Martinez vs. The Designated Hitters

	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	OPS+	BR/A	RC	RC/27	Win Shares	TPW
Martinez	315/427/525	952	151	554	1567	8.64	297	45.4
Baines	289/359/465	824	121	280	1608	5.80	307	15.1
Baylor	260/346/436	782	119	231	1247	5.17	262	10.5
McRae	290/355/454	809	122	206	1138	5.58	230	13.7

Only Harold Baines comes close, and that's only thanks to padding his career stats by sticking around. A lineup consisting of nine Martinez's would score THREE more runs per game than a team of Harold Baines. It is no contest.

Edgar Martinez vs. His Peers

"It really needs to be the cream of the crop, the best of the best. Once the Dale Murphys, Jim Rices, Fred McGriffs, and Bert Blylevens get in what's the point?"

There is a perception that Edgar Martinez is one of the crowd. An equivelent of Fred McGriff or Jim Rice. Martinez was a far superior hitter than that. Not only was Martinez a better hitter than McGriff or Rice, Martinez was also better than Sammy Sosa, who I assume most fans think is a Hall of Fame caliber hitter. Just take a look at their OPS+ statistics (available at baseball reference.com. Edgar Martinez comes in at 151, while Rice's is 126, McGriff's is 135, and Sosa's is 134. Not only was Martinez a better hitter, but he was 15% better over the course of his career.

Edgar Martinez vs. Hall of Fame First Basemen

Here is the big point of the Edgar Martinez argument. I stated earlier that his hitting statistics should be compared to other Hall of Fame first basemen, for a fair assessment of his Hall of Fame worthiness. I entered all of the current HOF first basemen into a table, computed the averages, and ran Martinez's statistics underneath.

	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	BR/A	RC	RC/G	WS	TPW	ASG
Murray	3026	1627	3255	560	35	504	1917	1333	1516	0.287	0.359	0.476	0.839	130	472	1939	6.11	437	32.8	8
Anson	2277	1722	3056	529	124	97	1880	953	294	0.333	0.395	0.446	0.841	138	439	1756	7.71	381	32.3
Beckley	2389	1602	2934	473	244	87	1577	616	270	0.308	0.361	0.436	0.797	126	303	1686	6.63	318	25.0
Bottomley	1991	1177	2313	465	151	219	1422	664	591	0.310	0.369	0.500	0.869	124	251	1384	6.76	258	4.1
Brouthers	1673	1523	2367	460	205	106	1296	840	238	0.349	0.423	0.519	0.942	170	621	1622	9.86	355	43.5
Cepeda	2124	1131	2351	417	27	379	1365	588	1169	0.297	0.353	0.499	0.852	133	340	1338	6.07	310	22.5	7
Chance	1288	798	1274	200	79	20	596	556		0.296	0.394	0.394	0.788	135	217	854	7.12	237	24.0
Connor	1998	1620	2542	441	233	138	1323	1002	449	0.323	0.397	0.486	0.883	155	558	1647	8.30	363	45.1
Foxx	2317	1751	2646	458	125	534	1922	1452	1311	0.325	0.428	0.609	1.038	161	761	2191	10.22	435	59.9	9
Gehrig	2164	1888	2721	534	163	493	1995	1508	790	0.340	0.447	0.632	1.080	182	1006	2321	11.21	489	74.6	7
Greenberg	1394	1051	1628	379	71	331	1276	852	844	0.313	0.412	0.605	1.017	156	437	1331	9.63	267	35.2	5
Kelly	1622	819	1778	337	76	148	1020	386	694	0.297	0.342	0.452	0.794	110	70	918	5.47	193	5.1
Killebrew	2435	1283	2086	290	24	573	1584	1559	1699	0.256	0.379	0.509	0.887	142	498	1609	6.79	371	38.7	11
McCovey	2588	1229	2211	353	46	521	1555	1345	1550	0.270	0.377	0.515	0.892	148	554	1638	7.07	408	42.7	6
Mize	1884	1118	2011	367	83	359	1337	856	524	0.312	0.397	0.562	0.959	157	498	1502	8.91	338	39.0	10
Perez	2777	1272	2732	505	79	379	1652	925	1867	0.279	0.344	0.463	0.808	122	269	1523	5.51	349	14.9	7
Sisler	2055	1284	2812	425	164	102	1175	472	327	0.340	0.379	0.468	0.847	125	258	1498	6.77	292	17.8
Terry	1721	1120	2193	373	112	154	1078	537	449	0.341	0.393	0.506	0.899	136	337	1275	7.60	278	26.9	3
AVERAGE	2096	1334	2384	420	113	286	1443	914	858	0.310	0.386	0.504	0.891	142	438	1557	7.65	338	32.5	7.3
Martinez	1914	1174	2119	491	15	297	1198	1225	1095	0.315	0.427	0.525	0.952	151	554	1567	8.64	297	45.4	7

Missing stat lines, such as All-Star games or Frank Chance's strikeouts, are not computed into averages. Edgar Martinez has a better career batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. He has more doubles, more home runs, more walks, a better OPS+, more runs created, more runs created per 27 outs, more TPW, and he's appeared in seven All-Star games, which is the average for first basemen. Remember that this is a comparison to the average HOF first baseman, and not the minimum requirements. Edgar Martinez clearly meets the established standards of the Hall of Fame.

The remaining question here is whether Martinez's short career is held against him. Admittingly, this is a tougher argument to refute. First off, was his peak so great as to offset having less games? Look at Total Player Wins. Total Baseball credits Martinez with 45.4 wins above average, that Martinez created for his team. That is a significant figure. In the history of baseball, only thirty-four other players have created more wins above average for their teams. Of the 27 who are eligible for the Hall, 26 are in the Hall. Of the fifteen who rank BELOW Martinez, 13 are in the Hall. The exceptions are three second basemen with terrific defensive statistics.

In addition, there are a number of players who played as much or less than Martinez, who made the Hall. Jim Bottomley, Dan Brouthers, Frank Chance, Hank Greenberg, George Kelly, Johnny Mize, and Bill Terry. Bill Terry in particular played less than Edgar Martinez, was not as good as Martinez, but not many seem upset about Terry's induction. Same with George Sisler. I realize many people have solid opinions about Martinez's candidacy, and they will likely be unconvinced by any argument. I just hope this column sheds some light on his candidacy, because he is truly a deserving player.

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