Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's MLB Report for September 6 Posted by Alan Keiper on Sep 5, 2004, 22:08

This week, we take a stroll through the pennant races.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

The American League East, thought out of reach a month ago, has now become the most interesting pennant race in baseball. The Red Sox have now pulled within two and a half games of the Yankees. On Tuesday, the Yankees lost to the Cleveland Indians 22-0. I assume most of you read the game accounts and watched the news, so there is no need to recap all the events. Needless to say, it was bad. But it is worth noting that the Yankees did not use any of their good pitchers after Vazquez, and it was just a single loss. I doubt we will see much of Tanyon Sturtze, Esteban Loaiza, and C.J. Nitkowski in the postseason. Well, maybe Nitkowski as a situational lefty.

On Friday, however, the Yankees suffered a loss far more devistating towards their championship dreams. Kevin Brown punched a clubhouse wall with his left (non-pitching) hand, and broke it. He required surgery, and reports are he will miss at LEAST three weeks. This is pure speculation, but when a guy injures his hand so badly that he requires surgery, three weeks sounds awfully optimistic. In any case, for the rest of the season, the Yankees will replace their best starter with their sixth best starter. At this point, it looks like either Loaiza or Brad Halsey. Neither of those pitchers inspires much confidence among Yankee fans.

However, the Yankees still hold a two and a half game lead. Is that enough to pad them towards the division championship? Looking over the pythagorean records, the Yankees runs scored and allowed predicts them to be a .541 team. The Sox' runs scored and allowed projects them at .604. So if we were to project the rest of the season based on their performance at this point, and add them to the existing win/loss records, the Yankees would win by a single game. But we play the games for a reason, and random chance will have more of an effect on the outcome than any statistic I could pull.

Strength of schedule is worth mentioning. After winning five of six from their wild card competition, the Angels and the Rangers, the Red Sox have only nine games remaining against winning teams. Six games against the Yankees, and three against the Oakland Athletics, in Oakland. The Sox also have six games against the Devil Rays, and eight games against the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees, however, also play just nine more games against winning teams. The aforementioned six against the Sox, and three at home against the Minnesota Twins. So neither team really has an advantage there.

Obviously, the big test comes in those six head to head matchups. We are looking at September 17-19 in Yankee Stadium, and September 24-26 in Fenway Park. The Red Sox can catch the Yankees, or the Yankees can create some breathing room. If the Sox win four of six, the rest of the race is even. But if the Yankees win four of six, they will win the league. We eagerly await those games. In the meantime, the Yankees face a busy schedule this week, playing FIVE games at home against the Devil Rays before venturing to Fenway park to face the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox play on the west coast, playing three in Oakland, and four in Seattle. Those Oakland games are key. They need to hold their ground to keep pace with the Yankees. And for you Met fans, Scott Kazmir makes his New York debut Wednesday.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

The Twins have all but wrapped up this race. On a brief snippet on Baseball Tonight, John Kruk laid out the argument that the Twins will do well in the postseason because they can set their rotation. Harold Reynolds argued that the Twins just are not built for the postseason. Reynolds reasoned that the Twins do not have a good starter outside of Johan Santana and Brad Redke. The intelligent baseball fan knows not to accept the conventional wisdom. It is easy to make such arguments, but do they really mean anything? For the first argument, yes and no. How much setting do you really need to make for the postseason? You would like to have your ace pitch game one and pitch as many times as possible, but unless you go into the last game or two of the season before you clinch, you can do that anyway.

As for Reynolds, first off, teams are not "built" for the postseason. In any case, the argument about the Twins' rotation, while well considered, is incorrect. The Twins have allowed just 595 runs, second best in the American League. And in the postseason, they can trim their pitching, using their best pitchers more, and their worst pitchers less (or not at all). Yes, they will need to give the ball to Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse. But they do not need those guys to be world beaters. Assuming the Angels and Rangers miss the postseason, the Twins will progress into the playoffs with the best overall bullpen in the group. And before Yankee fans speak up, we are counting beyond the first three pitchers. This does not mean the Twins should be expected to advance far into the postseason. It just means their shortcomings are elsewhere.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

Thanks to some assistance from the Red Sox, the Oakland Athletics have earned some breathing room in the West. Not that they needed the help. The Oakland Athletics have won sixteen of their last nineteen games. Over the last five years, the Athletics have been the best second half team in baseball. The criticism of the A's has been that they are unsuited to win in the postseason, because you need to play "small ball." But what the A's are doing obviously works in the second half, so why do teams continue to play small ball during the season?

Thirteen of the Athletics' last 22 games come against the Angels and Rangers. The Rangers are 6.5 games back, so they are essentially out of the race. The games against the Angels do not start until the 24th, so there is alot of games to be played until we see the Angels and A's go head to head. The Athletics have a three game lead, so they are in the driver's seat. As long as they can tread water, they should win this division. They face a tough test this week, however, as they play three games against the red hot Red Sox. The Sox are 17-2 in their last 19 games. So the two teams are a combined 33-5 in their last 38 games. Wednesday night, two of baseball's best pitchers collide in Tim Hudson and Pedro Martinez. 10:00pm Eastern on ESPN2. The Angels will play at home against the Blue Jays and White Sox this week.

Ichiro Suzuki is on pace to break the All-Time single season hits record, currently held by George Sisler. The discussion has now begun, is Ichiro an MVP candidate? Yes. I am a big believer that MVPs do not need to come from a winning baseball team. The written instructions sent to voters clearly state that the MVP does not need to come from a playoff contender. We have tremendous tools at our disposal that allow us to evaluate individual performance. We can judge individual performances on a player of a good team against a player on a bad team, and make a reasonable, accurate judgement of who is the better player. I simply do not believe that a judgement of a player's deservingness of an award should depend on the performance of his teammates. That is unfair. Every player has an equal opportunity to win an award, in my opinion.

With that said, unless Ichiro puts together an incredible September and ends up hitting at or close to .400, he is not the MVP. I advocated the candidacy of Alex Rodriguez the last two seasons because he was CLEARLY the league's best player. Ichiro is not the best hitter in the league this year. He needs to put together a rock-solid case. Unless he does, I think Gary Sheffield is the MVP this season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

This is the part of the season where I weep over the fallen Phillies, I wonder how in the world the Braves won this division yet again. In this case, it is quite simple. The Braves rolled the dice on J.D. Drew, and came up big. Drew is hitting .309/.428/.584 this season, replacing Gary Sheffield's production. In addition, Johnny Estrada is hitting better than anyone could have thought. Unlike last year, their pitching is once again strong. This is where I really think Andruw Jones benefits the team. Can it be a coincidence that the Braves always have unexpectedly good pitching at the same time one of the game's all time best defensive center fielders patrols the outfield?

J.D. Drew is a free agent this offseason, and the Braves are reportably looking to cut payroll. It remains to be seen if they can once again plug a gaping hole in right field. But the Braves have a solid up-the-middle base in Rafael Furcal, Marcus Giles, and Chipper Jones. It is easier to find players at the corners than at key defensive positions. So the Braves will likely be solid contenders once again next season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

In a chat two weeks ago, Rob Neyer compared the St. Louis Cardinals to the 1984 Detroit Tigers. A one year wonder, where everything that season went exactly right. This team won 95, 93, 97 and 85 wins over the last four years. They are playing over their heads this season. Baseball Prospectus wrote in the offseason that the Cardinals had four great players, but the rest of the team was abysmal. Simply by plugging those holes, the Cardinals became a pennant contender. However, it is unreasonable to expect Jim Edmonds or Scott Rolen to maintain their current level of production next season. I think the Cardinals will regress to a 90-95 win team next season. They will contend, possibly win the division, even the World Series. But I do not think we are seeing the origins of a dynasty in St. Louis. This offseason is a source of a concern as well. Three-fifths of the Cardinals rotation are eligible for free agency (Williams, Morris, Carpenter), as well as Edgar Renteria. Their time is now.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the San Francisco Giants by 3.5 games. See the Athletics/Angels analysis above. Six head-to-head games between these two clubs near the end of the month. For the time being, the Dodgers have the Jeckel and Hyde schedule of Arizona and St. Louis this week, while the Giants draw Colorado and Arizona. Despite my confidence last month regarding the Dodgers/Marlins trade, the Dodgers have gotten the short end of the stick thus far. The Dodgers are getting little production from the catchers' position, and Hee Seop Choi has hit poorly since arriving in Los Angeles. In addition, Brad Penny is still on the disabled list. But the Dodgers survive yet on the back of Adrian Beltre. The Giants are not exactly a juggernaut either, so this is an interesting race. As always, give the edge to the team in the lead.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD

The Red Sox hold a four game lead over the Angels, and seven games over the Rangers. The Red Sox all but assured their playoff spot with a 5-1 week against both teams. The interesting part of this race comes from whether the Red Sox remain in the wild card race, or force the Yankees into the race.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD

The Giants and Chicago Cubs stand tied for the wild card lead. The upstart Houston Astros trail by just a game and a half, and the San Diego Padres and Florida Marlins trail by just 2.5 games. We do not benefit much from evaluating the entire schedule at this point. We need to look at it week by week. The Cubs play three games at home against the Expos, followed by an indetermined amount of games against the Marlins. The Marlins/Cubs series last weekend was rained out, and the schedule has yet to be determined at this writing. The Giants play two games at Colorado and three at Arizona. The Astros host the Reds for three games, followed by four at Pittsburgh. The Padres host the Cardinals for three games, followed by four at Colorado. Besides the Cubs series, the Marlins host the Mets Tuesday through Thursday for three games. Obviously the Cubs/Marlins games are the big games this week.

Alan Keiper is an avid fan of baseball, much to the detriment of his college education. When not writing or reading about baseball, Alan enjoys looking for numbers in other activities in an effort to suck the fun out of them as well. While Alan has trouble remembering his girlfriend's eye color, he can recite the World Series contestants of any year on command. Alan currently resides in Pocono Pines, where all the residents agree that tourists can go f*** themselves.