Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's MLB Report for September 13th Posted by Alan Keiper on Sep 12, 2004, 21:12

AL EAST

The Boston Red Sox remained hot last week, but the New York Yankees have gotten their act together, winning seven of their last eight games. The Yankees now lead the Red Sox by 3.5 games, and we are looking at three games in the loss column. That the Yankees gained ground while eating a week off the schedule is extremely important, and I feel it makes the Yankees easy division favorites at this juncture.

Obviously we must bring up the Tampa Bay series. I will not go into the details of why the Devil Rays could not make it to New York, or the Yankees' backlash and subsequently demanding a forfeit from MLB. If you want to read all of that you can seek out a newspaper from the New York or Tampa Bay area. What concerns us here is that the Yankees and Devil Rays missed a game, and it will probably be made up if the game has playoff implications at the end of the season.

Will the game have playoff implications? The Yankees will almost certainly clinch a playoff spot, since they stand 8.5 games above the Anaheim Angels in the standings. So the only issue at the end would be over the division championship. According to the rules of Major League Baseball, if two teams are tied for the division lead (and both will make the playoffs), the division winner is determined by the winner of the head-to-head matchup. The Red Sox lead the head-to-head matchup 8-5. The Sox and Yankees have six games remaining, and the Yankees would need to win five of six to win the season matchup. Of course, if the Yankees win five of six from the Sox, they will win the division outright. So we will assume if the Sox and Yankees are tied at season's end, the Sox will hold the edge.

Now that we have that established, we know that the missing Yankees/Devil Rays game would only be necessary if the Yankees were either a half game ahead or behind. If they were a half game behind, they could only clinch a tie with the Red Sox, and the head-to-head matchup would give the Red Sox the division title anyway. So the only scenario in which the Yankees would need to make up that game with the Devil Rays is if they were a half game ahead at the end of the season.

This week, the Yankees play three games at Kansas City, while the Red Sox host the Devil Rays for three games. Then from Friday to Sunday, we have the first Yankees-Red Sox series, from Yankee Stadium. This is an important week for the Red Sox. They need to take at least two of three this weekend, and they can't afford to lose ground before then. The Yankees are unlikely to lose more than once to the Royals, if that.

The Sox rely on the HR ball a lot themselves, but it does seem that, since the Nomar trade, they're manufacturing more runs. Hey Al, there's a topic for a column: how the Red Sox have altered their game since trading Nomar (better defense, using a bit more "small ball").

A month ago, I blasted the Red Sox on the Nomar trade, calling it a deploreable swap of talent in which they obviously got the short end of the stick. Since the trade, the Sox have compiled a 28-8 record. So on the SmartMarks message board, fellow writer Peter Kostka asked me to discuss the Sox' method of winning games. Perhaps I have been wrong, and the Nomar trade was a godsend for the club. In any case, the statistics should tell us alot.

First we will look at the offense. In the four months before the trade, the Sox scored an average of 5.62 runs per game. Since the trade, they have averaged 6.36 runs per game. Orlando Cabrera is hitting .280/.307/.455 since the trade, so he is not the cause. Neither is Doug Mientkiewicz (.232/.270/.333). In fact, Mientkiewicz is hitting worse since the trade, which I did not think was possible. So if those two players are not responsible for the offense, who is?

Jason Varitek, Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Kevin Millar, in that order. If you have time, scan over to the Red Sox page on ESPN.com, and click on batting statistics. Then use the stat splits and select August. It is staggering. Jason Varitek hit .449/.513/.826 last month. Bill Mueller posted a .467 OBP. Mark Bellhorn added a .426 OBP. Kevin Millar, a bane of the Sox' existance a few months ago, post a .410 OBP last month. So it is clear the offense is the effect of a majority of the lineup hitting off the charts right now. With all due respect to small ball, it is usually not a strategy that nets six runs a game.

But we all know the Sox did not acquire Cabrera and Mientkiewicz for their offense. They needed defense. When we look at range factors, Cabrera is obviously a superior defender to Nomar Garciaparra. But how much of a difference does that make, and to what extent is it responsible for the Red Sox' resurgance? The sign of a good defense is allowing few runs. In the month that Nomar played full time, the Sox were terrible. They allowed an abnormally high rate of balls in play to result in safe hits. Oddly enough, their runs allowed per game was high at 5.27, but that was the same rate in May, when Nomar did not play. We will get back to that. In any case, the Sox allowed 4.85 runs per game in the first four months, compared to just 3.97 runs per game after the trade.

One run per game is obviously a significant difference. But to what extent is Cabrera responsible? We can evaluate a team's defense using balls in play. We simply take the opponent's at bats, and remove strikeouts. Before the trade, the Red Sox allowed a .326 batting average on balls in play. After the trade, the Sox allowed a .304 average on balls in play. That's a difference of .022, which is good. The Red Sox' opponents have registered 960 at bats, so that improved defense has saved them approximately 21 hits. If we look at the offense, we can estimate that Garciaparra would have reached base seven more times than Cabrera, given his plate appearances. That is sketchy math which assumes they would have hit at the same rate all year, but it gives you a general idea of the differences involved.

Now for the bad news. The Red Sox renaissance is not due to the improved fielding. The pitching is the key. Before the trade, the Sox posted a 2.33 K:BB Ratio. Since the trade, that ratio has improved to 3.47. Remember, walks and strikeouts occur independant of the defense. The major reason the Sox are allowing less runs is because they are walking nearly a batter less per nine innings.

Do I stand by my statement that the Nomar trade was bad for the Red Sox? No. The mark of a good sabermetrician is that he lets the facts guide his judgement, and not the other way around. From the evidence I have gathered, it is apparent that Orlando Cabrera represents a net gain for the Sox over Nomar Garciaparra. Just remember that there is more to the Red Sox than Cabrera. The entire team has contributed to this comeback, from the pitching to the offense. There is no small ball here. Just a well-oiled machine.

Red Sox statistics compiled as of September 8.

AL CENTRAL

The Twins continue to cruise. Last month, Johan Santana was a fringe contender for the Cy Young, supported mainly by the inside crowd and statheads such as myself. Now he is firmly neck and neck with Schilling for the crown. It is Schilling's 19 wins (and his K/BB ratio) against Johan Santana, his ERA, and his K rate. If you took wins from the equation, Santana would win easily. But voters do look at wins. I will not say wins are not important, but I think the voters should disregard them here. Schilling is pitching for the best offensive team in baseball. Santana's Twins are just tenth in the American League in runs scored. It is much harder to win a game for the Twins than for the Red Sox, and Santana deserves a fair deal of credit.

AL WEST

Thanks to the Oakland Athletics' three losses to the Red Sox, the Anaheim Angels have crept back into the race. They had closed the gap to a single game by Friday, but the Athletics are now ahead by a game and a half. As I write this, the A's are currently playing the Indians. If they win, they will increase the lead to two. This week, Oakland hosts the Texas Rangers for four games, and the Angels visit the Seattle Mariners for four. Afterwards they trade, with the Angels hosting Texas for three, and the A's visiting the Mariners for three. Keep an eye on the Texas-Oakland series. If the Rangers were to sweep the series, they would close the gap to just half a game. It is a longshot, but worth mentioning nonetheless.

NL EAST

With the Braves once again in the Playoffs, the usual talk begins about how the Braves are postseason chokers. There are two problems I see with this line of thinking. One, only a handful of Braves have been with the club for their entire reign. They have turned over nearly their entire pitching staff, save John Smoltz. In the lineup, only Chipper and Andruw Jones remain from the late-90s clubs. I do not think there is some magic mojo that carries over to new arrivees from year to year that forces them to lose playoff games.

Second, the Braves have hardly been favorites the last few seasons. And with any playoff team, they start with 8:1 odds against them. We cannot EXPECT teams to win it all every year, no matter how good they are. This season, the Braves are longshots as they would need to get by the St. Louis Cardinals at some point. But what are the odds, exactly? I am currently working on a formula to project playoff odds, with the idea that all teams start at 8:1, and working from that. I have not come up with a way to calculate odds at this point, but I did create a spreadsheet of runs scored and allowed by each of the eight current playoff berth leaders. The Red Sox and Cardinals rate far ahead of the pack. Here are the current playoff favorites, if the playoffs were to begin today:

1. St. Louis
2. Boston
3. Atlanta
4. Los Angeles
5. New York Yankees
6. Oakland
7. Minnesota
8. San Francisco

The Braves are closer to Oakland than they are to Boston. Obviously this is an inexact science, and since it simply projects marginal odds, there is no chance of commupance. But I do find it interesting.

NL CENTRAL

On page 548 of Bill James' New Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James uses the space on Ken Boyer to delve into a discussion on the greatest infields in baseball history. James' method is simple. He uses his Win Shares statistics and adds the total of the four regular starters on each team for a single season. Here are the top five...

1914 Philadelphia Athletics (Stuffy McGinnis, Eddie Collins, Home Run Baker, Jack Barry)
1908 Pittsburgh Pirates (Alan Storke, Ed Abbaticchio, Tommy Leach, Honus Wagner)
1912 Philadelphia Athletics (Harry Davis, Collins, Baker, Barry)
1934 Detroit Tigers (Hank Greenberg, Charlie Gehringer, Marv Owen, Billy Rogell)
1913 Philadelphia Athletics (McInnis, Collins, Baker, Barry)
(tie) 1982 Milwaukee Brewers (Cecil Cooper, Jim Gantner, Paul Molitor, Robin Yount)

The 1912-14 Philadelphia Athletics dominate the list. You may know them better as Connie Mack's famous "$100,000 Infield." The 1908 Pirates make the list almost entirely thanks to Honus Wagner's insane season. The 1934 Tigers and 1982 Brewers are simply a collection of very good to great players. Both squads claim two Hall of Famers.

So what is the point of all this? Several days ago, I browsed the Win Shares leaders and noticed that Hank Blalock was leading AL third basemen, and Michael Young was having an excellent campaign at shortstop. With Alfonso Soriano and Mark Teixeira filling out the lineup, would they rate favorably among the all time best? I decided to run the numbers. I totaled the Win Shares of the Rangers' infield, and projected them over an entire season. They were good, even very good, but barely top 50. A very good infield does not make an exciting column, so that looked to be the end of the idea.

The next day, the obvious occurs to me. In the National League, both Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols are having spectacular seasons, and Edgar Renteria and Tony Womack are no slouches either. How would they rate among the best all time? Instead of narrative, let me just run the numbers. These are how the players stood as of September 9th.

1B Albert Pujols (35)
2B Tony Womack (15)
SS Edgar Renteria (16)
3B Scott Rolen (36)

That works out to a total of 102 Win Shares. If the season ended at that point, the Cardinals would end up tied with the 1990 Detroit Tigers and the 1973 Cincinnati Reds as the 21st best infield ever. That is not bad on its own. But we still have a month remaining. The Cardinals at September 9th had played 139 games. If we prorate the Cardinals to 162 games, the total Win Shares increases to 119. If the Cardinals' infield were to finish with 119 Win Shares, that would rank them tied for first all time, alongside the 1914 Philadelphia Athletics. Players do tend to regress to the norm as the season wears on, but when I computed the stats as of September 2nd, they were projected for 115 Win Shares. The Cardinals' infield shows no signs of slowing down. As we do have a month left, it will be interesting to see just where the Cardinals finish.

NL WEST

The Bonds watch is on. Barry is sitting on 699 home runs, and he seeks #700 on Tuesday when the Giants travel to Milwaukee for a three game series. Analysts will be quick to point out that Bonds is only the third person to hit 700 home runs, which is true. But what makes it a special achievement? He is already only one of three hitters to hit 699 home runs, 698 home runs, 697, 696, and so on. But we all love big round numbers, so this one gets its due. And it is deserved, as it is an amazing achievement.

AL wild card

There is little to see here. The only two teams of note, the Angels and the Red Sox, are aiming for their respective division crowns. The Sox lead the Angels by five games.

NL wild card

Here is the fun race. Only 2.5 games separate the Giants, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, and Florida Marlins. As a Phillies fan, I am obligated to note that the Phillies are 4.5 games out, and not mathematically eliminated just yet. I do not think reading off the schedule would be too beneficial, so we will just point out the big matchups this week. The Montreal Expos and Florida Marlins play Monday and a doubleheader Tuesday, at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago. Yes, you read that right. Due to Hurricane Ivan threatening Florida, the Marlins and Expos move North to get the games in. The question is whether anyone show up. My guess is 4,000-6,000 fans per game. The storm will determine whether the series moves back to Florida by Wednesday. For the first part of the week, we have the San Diego at Los Angeles and Houston at St. Louis. This weekend sees San Diego at San Francisco. The Padres/Giants series is the only head-to-head series this week between wild card contenders.

We will use pythagorean Win/Loss percentages (based on runs scored and allowed) to project the rest of the season. We simply use the percentages to predict wins the rest of the season, and add them to the existing win/loss records. Here are the projections...

SF Giants (89-73)
Chicago Cubs (89-73)
Houston (88-74)
San Diego (86-76)
Florida (86-76)
Philadelphia (84-78)

Keep in mind these are only a rough guide of odds, and not predictions. With random chance, this race could go in any direction. In any case, there is a good chance we could be treated to a wild card playoff at the end of this season. Keep an ear open for the coin flips which will occur in the next few days to determine home field in any possible playoff.

Alan Keiper is an avid fan of baseball, much to the detriment of his college education. When not writing or reading about baseball, Alan enjoys looking for numbers in other activities in an effort to suck the fun out of them as well. While Alan has trouble remembering his girlfriend's eye color, he can recite the World Series contestants of any year on command. Alan currently resides in Pocono Pines, where running water isn't just a pipe dream, it's a distinct possibility.