Entertainment > Movies / TV Al's MLB Report for October 11th Posted by Alan Keiper on Oct 11, 2004, 22:19

AL MVP

TSM Readers select: Vladimir Guerrero, Anaheim

What is an MVP? Many analysts make up silly definitions for what consitutes the "most valuable player," usually in an effort to give the award to a player they have already annointed with the crown before making any actual analysis. Sabermatricians must remember to avoid this trap. One can never let their biases influence their research. In the early stages of considering my own selections, I felt Johan Santana deserved the MVP. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized I was doing it for the same reasons voters did not want to vote for Alex Rodriguez. They made their decision before doing the research. This year I concur with the consensus. Vladimir Guerrero is the MVP.

On September 1st, the Angels trailed the Oakland Athletics by three games. Over the course of the month, Guerrero sparked the Angels' offense with a .371 batting average, along with a .433 On Base Percentage, and .733 slugging percentage. Like Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and Jason Giambi in 2001, Guerrero dragged the Angels into the Playoffs, kicking and screaming. Consider that the rest of the Angels offense hit .246 in the final month. Guerrero was the Angels' entire offense down the stretch, and no hitter was more vital to his team than was Vladimir Guerrero.

NL MVP

TSM Readers select: Barry Bonds, San Francisco

Barry Bonds was a nearly unanimous selection, with good reason. Bonds finished the season with 53 Win Shares. His total is the third highest in National League history, behind Honus Wagner (1908), and Bonds' own 2001 season. This season, Bonds smashed the single season record for On Base Percentage, posting a .609 mark. Bonds became the first player in Major League history to top .600. Bonds also broke the single season mark for walks, with 232.

Bonds is intentionally walked frequently. Does this strategy negate his effectiveness? Not at all. It is widely assumed that the Giants have little offensive talent outside of Barry Bonds. Yet they finished second in the league in runs scored. Bonds' walks do two things. First, they give the Giants a free baserunner. Second, they extend the Giants' opportunities to collect hits, and thus score runs. Outs are the currency of baseball. Teams that use less of them have an advantage over the competition. The Giants are a prime example of this effect.

The real battle of the balloting is who finishes second. There are several qualified candidates, including Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Adrian Beltre. In the TSM vote, Beltre barely edges Pujols for second place. Beltre hit 48 home runs for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the second highest total in team history. Moreover, he played gold glove caliber defense at third base, and played half his games in Dodger Stadium. Before this season, I bashed the Dodgers' chances at making the postseason. I was dead wrong, and Beltre was the biggest reason for that.

AL Cy Young

TSM Readers select: Johan Santana, Minnesota

Johan Santana was a unanimous choice for Cy Young. What is unusual is that Curt Schiling was also a unanimous choice for second place. I have no reason to suspect the real Cy Young balloting will not match these results. Santana's success is well known at this point. Since mid-July, Santana compiled a 13-0 record, along with a 1.21 ERA. He surrendered just 55 hits in 104 1/3 innings, walking just 23 and striking out 129 batters. Santana gave up just 14 earned runs in his last fifteen starts. Just incredible.

NL Cy Young

TSM Readers select: Randy Johnson, Arizona

Surprisingly, Johnson gets the nod here despite his pedestrian 16-14 record. Most voters recognize that his win/loss record is due to his poor run support, and instead view Johnson's contribution through his league leading 290 strikeouts. Johnson's cause benefits from the perfect game he tossed against the Atlanta Braves back in April. I think the Astros' wild card push gives Roger Clemens the real Cy Young, but I think the Big Unit has a real opportunity to finish second in the vote.

AL Rookie of the Year

TSM Readers select: Bobby Crosby, Oakland

The knock on Crosby is that he will win this award solely thanks to a weak rookie field in the American League. That is partly true. There are no outstanding candidates in the league this season. Still, there are several good rookies floating around, such as Shingo Takatsu, Zach Greinke, and Justin Morneau. Crosby wins this award because he played regularly the entire season. Greinke and Morneau will probably have better careers. Bobby Crosby hit just 239/319/426 this season, but he should hit better than that as he gains experience, and he is a terrific defender. He certainly is not the worst player to ever win a Rookie of the Year (assuming he wins).

NL Rookie of the Year

TSM Readers select: Jason Bay, Pittsburgh

Jason Bay seems like a good consensus pick, but I must say a few words about my pick, Khalil Greene. The conventional wisdom is that Greene has only playing time on his side for this argument. Khalil Greene had a superb year, however, that has gone unnoticed by the writers. First off, Greene is a terrific defensive presence at shortstop. Second, the Padres play at Petco Park, widely regarded as a pitchers' park. Obviously Petco Park suppressed Greene's numbers to some extent, but how much? Take a look at Greene's road statistics. Away from Petco, Greene hit 301/353/543. Greene hit 12 home runs on the road. If he did that at home, he'd have 24 home runs, two less than Bay. In fact, if he hit like that at home, he would be an MVP candidate. But Jason Bay is no discrace if he wins. Bay hit 282/358/550 with 26 home runs, and would become the first Pirate to ever win the award.

AL Manager of the Year

TSM Readers select: Buck Showalter, Texas

There is not much you need to say about Buck Showalter. The Rangers are the third team he has managed, and each team has made dramatic improvements under his tenure. He took the New York Yankees to their first playoff berth in a decade, built the most successful expansion franchise in history in Arizona, and this season kept the Texas Rangers in the pennant race until the last week of the season.

NL Manager of the Year

TSM Readers select: Bobby Cox, Atlanta

For the third straight year, most fans expected the Atlanta Braves to finally lose their grip on the NL East. And yet, using a pitching staff that is mostly smoke and mirrors, Cox took the Braves to an easy division crown, their tenth in a row. Cox has now won over 2,000 games, and is a shoe-in for baseball's Hall of Fame.

AL Gold Gloves

TSM Readers select:
C Damian Miller, Oakland
1B Mark Teixeira, Texas
2B Orlando Hudson, Toronto
SS Christian Guzman, Minnesota
3B Alex Rodriguez, New York
OF Torii Hunter, Minnesota
OF Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle
OF Johnny Damon, Boston

The Gold Glove selections here mirror the best fielders as defined by win shares. Mark Teixeira has flown under the radar in terms of fielding. You need to remember that the only reason Teixeira is not playing third base is because of Hank Blalock. Otherwise there are no real surprises on this list. Eric Chavez is probably a better fielder than Rodriguez, but he missed six weeks due to injury.

NL Gold Gloves

TSM Readers select:
C Brian Schneider, Montreal
1B Todd Helton, Colorado
2B Luis Castillo, Florida
SS Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh
3B Scott Rolen, St. Louis
OF Jim Edmonds, St. Louis
OF Andruw Jones, Atlanta
OF Corey Patterson, Chicago

Brian Schneider is worth mentioning. Win Shares sees him as the best defensive player in baseball. If you glance at his statistics, it is easy to see why. Schneider caught 50% of the runners who attempted to steal against him this season. Only Henry Blanco and Damian Miller are even within 10% of that figure. The Expos as a team ranked 2nd in least stolen bases allowed, and first in caught stealing percentage. Quite simply, no player dominated his position like Brian Schneider.

PLAYOFF PREVIEWS

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

The two best teams in the American League matchup once again for the league championship. You all have doubtless heard about all the backstory, and if you have not, then you are probably not interested in the first place. There is not much here I can honestly add to the discussion. The Red Sox' pythagorean record was eight games better this season, but that does not mean much in a short series. Like I wrote last week, the Yankees crush left handed pitching, and the Red Sox crush right handed pitching. The Red Sox have few lefties, and the Yankees have no reliable lefties. Boston won the season series 11-8. I think when you look at the matchup, the Red Sox have a slight edge.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros

The Astros finally exercised the postseason demons, defeating the Atlanta Braves. The Astros had a deserved claim as one of baseball's most cursed franchises. Consider their track record. Jim Umbright, a star reliever, died in an auto accident shortly before the 1964 season. Pitcher Don Wilson committed suicide in January of 1975. Pitcher J.R. Richard suffered a stroke in the middle of the 1980 season. Had Richard not suffered that blow, he likely would have made the difference in the 1980 NLCS, and gotten the Astros into the World Series. Overall, the Astros lost seven postseason series. Now they get to face the dominant Cardinals in the NLCS. The head-to-head matchup favors the Cardinals, but means little since the Cardinals were clearly resting players during the last series. Obviously, the Cardinals are clear favorites. However, the Astros have a reasonable chance, and should make a run for it. They will need to pitch Peter Munro in game one, however, and that will hurt.

One observation I would like to make about the Playoffs thus far. Managers are using pitchers more often on three days rest, and using relievers for two or three innings at a time. I for one am happy to see it. A good manager should maximize the innings from his best pitchers. Many teams do not have the deep bullpens they once did, and this arrangement of rosters allows for more excitement late in the game.

That's all for this week. Check us out next week.

Send feedback to: Alan Keiper