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" The Gravel Pit "
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NFL Instant Replay: Week 10
Posted by Dr. Tom on Nov 16, 2004, 16:27
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NFL INSTANT REPLAY: Week 10
Ejections, Ejections Everywhere: We had Joey Porter and William Green ejected before the Pittsburgh-Cleveland scrum could officially begin, and Orlando Pace ejected for apparently grabbing the nearest person � who happened to be an official � to keep himself from falling over. Porter allegedly spat in Green�s face to trigger the fisticuffs, and if that�s true, it only adds to Porter�s nefarious reputation in the league. Once you get a rep as being dirty, it�s hard to shake it. In addition to the player ejections, both New Jersey teams suffered possible ejections to their playoff hopes, as did the Seahawks and Texans, while the Chiefs were given a stern boot to the posterior when they tried sneaking close to the playoff compound.
It�s too early to being doing playoff analysis in earnest, especially since the complicated algorithms needed to figure out tiebreakers are still being devised in the NFL�s secret alchemical lab. The same twisted minds who devise the tiebreakers are also the same devious folks who came up with the QB rating, which requires a Cray supercomputer to calculate, and a suspension of disbelief to buy into, when you realize that a chap who goes 0-25-0-0-0 in a game will still have a QB rating of 39.6. You have to really try and be awful � or just be Mark Brunell � to get the dreaded 0.0 rating.
Under Review: Week 9
RAVENS~! 20, Jets 17 (OT): Here�s a one-question quiz for you, kids. Your team is down 14-0 on the road, late in the first half, and the team with the lead is knocking on the door again. They�re in the red zone with under 2:00 to go, and a touchdown here � any score, actually � really puts the boot to your team�s throat. The offense calls a halfback option. What is your reaction?
A. �A sensible play, designed to trick the defense.�
B. �How cunning and devious. Muahahahaha!�
C. �WTF?�
If you chose �C,� then you�re with me. Really, a halfback option? You�re at the 17-yard line and you have plenty of time; get the first down and pound the ball in for the 21-0 halftime lead. Instead, the Jets outsmarted themselves, and LaMont Jordan�s pass to no one in particular landed right in the waiting hands of Ed Reed, who, five yards deep in the end zone, decided to bring it out for the second week in a row. There are some situations where taking the knee is wiser, but this wasn�t one of them: Reed is a fast and capable runner, and offensive players are not accustomed to tackling. Quincy Carter refused to give up on the play, though, and pursued Reed. Will Demps, running with Reed (and doing little else but watching Reed run), threw the worst block ever on a quarterback and got flagged for holding, negating Reed�s touchdown. All he had to do was turn inside and throw a conventional block (and it would�ve helped if Reed had pointed toward Carter in advance), but it ended up not mattering as the Ravens got 7 points to make it a one-TD game at the half.
The second half was more of the same, as the Ravens got the last 10 of their 17 unanswered points. Kyle Boller had a good game � yes, I can admit it � in leading the two key TD drives, ending both with jump-ball passes to nine-foot rookie WR Clarence Moore. I�ve always had a bias for tall receivers, and at 6�6� with good leaping ability, Moore is a mismatch for any secondary, and a good target for the high ball. The Jets came back with some absolutely atrocious clock management, needing to use their final time-out with 8 seconds left. They could have taken a shot at the end zone, but it would have had to be a pass play. Instead, coach Herman Edwards took the sure field goal and sent the game into OT. After a combined trio of 3-and-out series, the Ravens put a drive together and won on a 42-yard field goal from Matt Stover. The holder was Kyle Boller, who was pressed into that role when punter Dave Zastudil got leveled and had to leave the game. The team�s replacement punter was Kordell Stewart, who did a serviceable job, putting two punts inside the 20 and compiling a 35.4-yard gross average. Remember when Danny White was both the starting QB and punter for the Cowboys? Zastudil getting drilled is the reason that doesn�t happen anymore.
The Ravens improved to 6-3 with the big road win (their first over a winning team in two seasons), and while they have a very small chance of winning the division, they kept themselves in good position for a wild-card berth.
Saints 27, Chiefs 20: �If I only had a D . . .� That�s Dick Vermeil�s theme song the past two seasons. Porous defense cost Kansas City in the playoffs last year, and it�s cost them a return trip this season. The mercurial Saints were happy to capitalize, breaking the 20-all tie late with a long TD pass from Aaron Brooks to Joe Horn. DEUCE~! had a solid game running the ball, and Derrick Blaylock filled in very nicely for PRIEST~! in a losing effort.
Bengals 17, Racists 10: Joe Gibbs is a patient man. It only took the eighth consecutive atrocious start by Mark Brunell for Gibbs to yank the veteran QB in favor of last season�s starter, Patrick Ramsey. Marvin Lewis is a patient man, too. He stuck with his decision to play second-year QB Carson Palmer over Jon Kitna, whose excellent 2003 season led the team back to respectability. The Bengals and Palmer look to be putting it together in the second half. Beating his former team � Lewis was the Racists� defensive coordinator for one season, but did a lot of head coaching chores that the vacuous Steve Spurrier couldn�t handle � had to be sweet for Marvin Lewis, a good fellow I�d like to see succeed as a head coach.
Jaguars 23, Lions 17 (OT): Byron Who? Ok, maybe that�s an exaggeration, but backup David Garrard filled in nicely for the injured Leftwich, accounting for 240 total yards and throwing a pair of TD passes. Fred Taylor had 144 yards rushing to help the cause. Detroit�s offense was abysmal, but their special teams was off the hook: Eddie Drummond returned two punts for TDs in the fourth quarter, including the tying score with 46 seconds to go. A TD pass to Jimmy Smith iced it for the Jags in the extra period, however.
Colts 49, Texans 14: Add five more TD passes to Peyton Manning�s count, giving him 31 on the season thru nine games. That puts him on pace for a record 55 scoring passes this season. Manning also has an absurd rating of 122.7 thru nine games, far above his career mark of 90.8. Will he drift back to reality over the final seven games of the season? The safe bet is that he will; entering this season, Manning averaged 12 TD passes per seven-game stretch. I'm going out on a limb right now and saying he doesn't break the record. And shame on him and the Colts for continuing to pass and go for broke when up 42-7 in the 4th quarter. Domanick Davis had two rushing TDs for the Texans, who were just thoroughly overmatched in this one.
Packers 34, Vikings 31 (OT): This was a good showdown between QBs, as both Favre and Culpepper threw for four TDs apiece. The difference was that the Pack could run the ball, with Ahman Green going for 145 yards on just 21 carries. The Vikings could have locked the game up by recovering Robert Ferguson�s fumble, and it looked like Derek Ross had done just that. When the pile was sorted out, though, the Pack had the ball, and they drove for the winning field goal. A heck of a game to have in prime time on Sunday night, certainly.
Steelers 24, Browns 10: It was another start for Jerome Bettis, and he finished with a line of 29-103-2. My favorite part of his line, though, was his long run of the day: 7 yards. That�s right, just seven yards. THAT is smash-mouth football, friends, and it�s the kind of football I like. Every time Bettis hit the hole, he was grinding out 3 or 4 yards and wearing down the Browns� defense. I love the kind of football the Steelers play; it�s just a damn shame they�re in the same division as my Ravens and I have to root against them.
Rams 23, Seahawks 12: Mike Martz berated his team, both publicly and privately after their performance the past two weeks, and the Rams responded. Martz decided to get MARHSALL~! involved in the offense, and Faulk responded with 160 total yards on 23 touches. I believe I�ve been exhorting Martz to do this for about three seasons now. Despite his 139 yards rushing, Faulk was only the second-biggest ground gainer of the day, as Shaun Alexander turned in a 22-for-176 performance in a losing effort. Mike Holmgren is now all of one game over .500 as the Seahawks� coach.
Bears 19, Titans 17 (OT): For the first time since 1989, and only the second time in history, an NFL game ended on a safety. Bears DE Alex Brown sacked Titans QB Billy Volek, who fumbled the ball. It was recovered by OL Fred Miller, who was quickly tackled by DE Adewale Ogunleye for the safety. Chicago�s defense kept them in this one, but rookie QB Craig Krenzel is 3-0 despite not having a good game yet. Hmmm, that reminds me of someone . . .
Other Games:
Panthers 37, 49ers 27: The talking heads all said someone had to win this one . . . what if it had ended in a tie?
Cardinals 17, Giants 14: Kurt Warner hasn�t lost the job yet. Well, he has, but he hasn't.
Falcons 24, Bucs 14: Remember when the Bucs used to own Michael Vick? I bet Vick does.
Pats 29, Bills 6: And here I thought an improved Buffalo team could keep this one close.
Eagles 49, Cowboys 21: At least Terrell Owens vs. Jason Witten was a close contest.
Pass For Show, Run For Dough
In this era of Sports Center highlights and fans with short attention spans, the passing game gets a lot of love. Every week, at least one QB goes en fuego passing the ball, and a couple teams live and die putting the ball in the air. Maybe I�m just an old-school ball-control guy, but I think the running game is still the most important offensive ingredient, since it lets you wear down both your enemies at once: the opposing team, and the game clock.
I�m going to chart some rushing statistics this season (as I did last season, until time constraints forced me to scrap this column) and see how important the running game really is. Each week, I�ll tally up the 100-yard rushers and see how their teams did. Also, I�ll look at teams that ran the ball 30 or more times, and teams that ran it 20 or fewer times, and see how they did.
Week 10:
100-yard rushers: 11
Team record: 7-4. Two games (KC-NO, STL-SEA) featured dueling 100-yard backs.
30 or more rushing attempts: 14
Team record: 10-4
20 or fewer rushing attempts: 6
Team record: 2-4
Season to date:
100-yard rushers: 91 *
Team record: 73-17 (81.11%)
30 or more rushing attempts: 111
Team record: 88-23 (79.28%)
20 or fewer rushing attempts: 55
Team record: 8-47 (14.54%)
* In the Jets-Dolphins game in Week 8, both Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan rushed for over 100 yards in New Jersey�s dominating win. Thus, the discrepancy between 100-yard rushers and the team records, which will be off by at least one game all season long. I can live with that, since it means teams are emphasizing the running game.
We Care A Lot
Kurt Warner has been sacked 24 times in his last four games. The Giants are slumping after a hot start, and the New York media is abuzz. It is into this fire that head coach Tom Coughlin has thrown wunderkind rookie QB Eli Manning. Comparisons are already being made between Manning and Pittsburgh�s Ben Roethlisberger, and to those comparisons, I say, �Bollocks.� Both fellows are talented rookies, this much is true. However, Ben-Ro plays behind a solid offensive line, has two excellent receivers, and a running game that racks up yardage and TDs despite the fact they pretty much announce to the defense that they�re going to run. Manning has . . . well, that O-line is pretty bad, and, um . . . er, Amani Toomer�s a decent wideout . . . and, uh, Tiki Barber�s having a good year. The facts are that the Steelers� O-line is playing worlds better than the Giants�, the receiving corps is much more talented in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have the #2 rushing offense in the NFL. Manning is being fed to the lions (actually, the Falcons, but you get the point), and while he might have some decent games, he�s going to spend some time out there worrying about his head getting taken off his neck.
Bring Out Your Dead
Some notable injuries from Week 10:
-- PRIEST~! is expected to miss at least one more game with sprained knee ligaments. Backup Derrick Blaylock went for 186 yards in the start this past Sunday.
-- Bears LB Brian Urlacher will miss 4-6 weeks with a lower left leg injury. More specific details of the injury were not available as of this writing.
-- Mark Brunell has been officially diagnosed with Washed-Up And Crappy Syndrome. It is because of this illness that Joe Gibbs has decided to replace him with Patrick Ramsey.
Dr. Tom�s Official Power Rankings
The AFC clearly looks to have the better teams so far this season. Of the five teams which are 6-3, all call the AFC home. Past the 7-2 Falcons, the NFC has a glut of teams at 5-4 and 4-5. With Pittsburgh and New England looking very strong, a wild card out of the AFC will need 11-12 wins to make the grade, while a 10-win team will certainly make the cut in the NFC, and maybe even a 9-win squad. If you�re a fan of one of those 4-5 teams, don�t count your favorite fellows out of it just yet.
1. Steelers (8-1). They have 152 rushes in their last three wins. I�d love this team if they�d change divisions.
2. Patriots (8-1). Next on the Shuffling Player Circus: Tom Brady kicks a clutch field goal.
3. Eagles (8-1). TO�s mini-star pose after his second TD catch was a nice nod to history.
4. Falcons (7-2). With Rod Coleman back, the defense is again stingy and sack-happy.
5. Colts (6-3). They�ll regret running up the score on the Texans, mark my words.
6. Chargers (6-3). If Tomlinson is healthier after the bye week, look out.
7. RAVENS~! (6-3). That was a big win on the road, and another big play by Ed Reed.
8. Broncos (6-3). They play only two teams with winning records the rest of the season.
9. Jaguars (6-3). �Hello, Mr. Garrard? Yes, you passed that audition that all the QB-needy teams were watching.�
10. Packers (5-4). They�re on a major hot streak, and Ahman Green is a big reason why.
11. Jets (6-3). With their tough remaining schedule, the playoffs are far from a lock in Jersey.
12. Vikings (5-4). If they make the Annual Collapse, will Moss� absence be the excuse?
13. Rams (5-4). Have Faulk, Will Win. We�ll see if Mike Martz can remember that for two straight weeks.
14. Seahawks (5-4). Their remaining schedule looks easy, but Holmgren is no lock to return.
15. Bears (4-5). Three wins in a row after I called them the worst team in the league. You�re welcome, Lovie.
16. Cardinals (4-5). I�m still not convinced Josh McCown is The Guy, but Emmitt is still the man.
17. Giants (5-4). Good luck, Eli. I think you�re going to need it.
18. Bengals (4-5). The defense and Carson Palmer are both looking better, and the upswing results.
19. Texans (4-5). And here I thought they could actually play the Colts close. That was avert-your-eyes ugly.
20. Chiefs (3-6). KC is averaging almost 400 yards of offense in its losses. In its losses.
21. Lions (4-5). Joey Harrington is running out of excuses and time. He has the tools around him.
22. Saints (4-5). They looked good last week, and now go for a record two games in a row looking good.
23. Bucs (3-6). Wow, there are a lot of bad teams at 3-6. Tampa is the best by default.
24. Titans (3-6). On the plus side, Billy Volek had a good time. On the bad side, no one else did.
25. Browns (3-6). Hey, Gerard Warren: if you�re going to mouth off, at least show up in the stat line. Chump.
26. Cowboys (3-6). I said earlier that the 7th loss should let Drew Henson play. Make that the 6th.
27. Bills (3-6). They punt WAY too often in situations where they could go for it. Have some spine.
28. Racists (3-6). Maybe Joe Gibbs should leave the player evaluations to someone else. And hire a coach under 80.
29. Panthers (2-7). After a big road win, can they at least salvage respectability this season?
30. Raiders (3-6). Just win a third of the time, baby.
31. 49ers (1-8). No wonder The City is known for its drug culture.
32. Dolphins (1-8). Over/under on Miami wins: 2.
Picks for Week 11
Last week: 10-4
Season to date: 82-46. (64.06%) I�m getting back to that magical 66.6% mark.
Arizona 19 at Carolina 13, 1:00 p.m.
Dallas 17 at Baltimore 24, 1:00 p.m.
Denver 27 at New Orleans 26, 1:00 p.m.
Detroit 20 at Minnesota 30, 1:00 p.m.
Indianapolis 23 at Chicago 16, 1:00 p.m.
NJ. Jets 24 at Cleveland 18, 1:00 p.m.
Pittsburgh 27 at Cincinnati 16, 1:00 p.m.
The City 14 at Tampa Bay 21, 1:00 p.m.
St. Louis 29 at Buffalo 17, 1:00 p.m.
Tennessee 13 at Jacksonville 21, 1:00 p.m.
Miami 9 at Seattle 30, 4:05 p.m.
San Diego 33 at Oakland 23, 4:05 p.m.
Atlanta 27 at NJ Giants 14, 4:15 p.m.
Washington 16 at Philadelphia 31, 4:15 p.m.
Green Bay 28 at Houston 22, 8:30 p.m.
New England 26 at Kansas City 23, 9:00 p.m. (MNF)
Open dates: None, because byes are OVER~!
Next week: Injured punters and kickers are replaced by android look-alikes.
Dr. Tom Fowler
drtomfowler at yahoo dot com
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