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NFL Instant Replay: Week 12
Posted by Dr. Tom on Dec 1, 2004, 17:00
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NFL INSTANT REPLAY: Week 12
Heart. Some teams have it, some teams sorely lack it. New England has enough heart to burst an elephant�s chest. The Ravens were found to be without a pulse. The Raiders finally showed some heart, winning a tough road game in snowy Denver and doing serious damage to the Broncos� division title hopes. The Racists have lacked heart the whole season, and the 49ers lack anything remotely resembling a usable body part. They don't even have a spleen.
Under Review: Week 12
Patriots 24, RAVENS~! 3. I maintain that the Ravens had a legitimate chance to win this game. They�d gotten the big road win monkey off their backs by beating the Jets in New Jersey a few weeks ago. Had Kyle Boller continued to play like he had the previous two weeks, the Ravens would have been in good shape. However . . . not so much. Boller looked like a rookie again, as the muddy field and the Patriots� multiple schemes, formations, and blitzes conspired to confound him all day. The Patriots got a very good game from Corey Dillon, and the usual performances from Tom Brady and the receiving corps. The Ravens failed to capitalize on the Pats� depleted secondary, and a game that was knotted 3-all at the half turned into a rout in the second 30 minutes.
Other Games
Colts 41, Lions 9. Manning might�ve had 10 TD passes if they�d left him in.
Cowboys 21, Bears 7. Drew Henson? Not so much. But Julius Jones sure made his case.
Vikings 27, Jags 16. A fumble returned just inside 2:00 iced it. Maybe next year, Lord Byron.
Chargers 34, Chiefs 31. This was a huge road win for the Chargers, who seem a lock for the postseason.
Texans 31, Titans 21. So, anyone still think McNair deserved half the MVP award last year?
Bengals 58, Browns 48. The Racists might not score that many points this season.
Panthers 21, Bucs 14. Carolina is surging at the right time, and they�re still in the playoff hunt at 4-7.
Steelers 16, Racists 7. Patrick Ramsey: 34 attempts, 138 yards. Something�s wrong there, friends.
Eagles 27, Giants 6. The Eli Era is off to a whimpering 0-2 start. What was wrong with Warner again?
Falcons 24, Saints 21. Aaron Brooks is Michael Vick with less ability and a lot less smarts.
Bills 38, Seahawks 9. Why yes, Mr. Holmgren, I did see a black-clad man with a scythe outside.
Dolphins 24, 49ers 17. When a game is this bad, call it the Toilet Bowl and hope the hype helps.
Jets 13, Cardinals 3. And so the Shaun King era ends like it began: with no hope for improvement.
Raiders 25, Broncos 24. The Broncos blew a big 4th-quarter lead at home in a game they had to win.
Packers 45, Rams 17. I�ll never understand some of Mike Martz�s punting decisions.
Pass For Show, Run For Dough
In this era of Sports Center highlights and fans with short attention spans, the passing game gets a lot of love. Every week, at least one QB goes en fuego passing the ball, and a couple teams live and die putting the ball in the air. Maybe I�m just an old-school ball-control guy, but I think the running game is still the most important offensive ingredient, since it lets you wear down both your enemies at once: the opposing team, and the game clock.
I�m going to chart some rushing statistics this season (as I did last season, until time constraints forced me to scrap this column) and see how important the running game really is. Each week, I�ll tally up the 100-yard rushers and see how their teams did. Also, I�ll look at teams that ran the ball 30 or more times, and teams that ran it 20 or fewer times, and see how they did.
Week 12:
100-yard rushers: 12
Team record: 8-4
30 or more rushing attempts: 10
Team record: 9-1
20 or fewer rushing attempts: 6
Team record: 1-5
Season to date:
100-yard rushers: 114 *
Team record: 89-24 (78.76%)
30 or more rushing attempts: 134
Team record: 108-26 (80.59%)
20 or fewer rushing attempts: 66
Team record: 9-57 (13.64%)
* In the Jets-Dolphins game in Week 8, both Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan rushed for over 100 yards in New Jersey�s dominating win. Thus, the discrepancy between 100-yard rushers and the team records, which will be off by at least one game all season long. I can live with that, since it means teams are emphasizing the running game.
By George, He�s Got It
Jeff George has been given another chance. The Bears worked out the veteran QB, who had been out of the NFL for three years, and signed him for the rest of the season. George is slated to be the third-stringer, but considering how awful the Bears� other QBs have been this season, don�t be surprised if he�s starting before the end of the year. Heck, I wouldn�t be surprised to see him start next weekend.
George has gotten a bum rap by a lot of coaches and personnel men, and a three-year absence for someone with his physical skills is a pretty clear sign he was blacklisted. All George has ever wanted was another chance to prove himself, and now he�s getting it. The man has his detractor, but take a look at these career stats. Jeff George is not a bum. He has always had a big-time arm, his TD/INT ratio is solid, and he probably still ranks in the top 10 in QB arms despite three years on the shelf. The real knock on George has always been his leadership. The Bears badly need a leader on offense. It remains to be seen if George can fill that role, but I have no doubt he can throw the ball better than anyone else they�ve put under center this season. Heck, if he had his right arm and leg amputated, he�d do better than Jonathan Quinn.
A Deep Air of Resignation
Butch Davis resigned as the Cleveland Browns� head coach and executive vice president today. The Browns, a disappointing 3-8 this season, made the playoffs just once in Davis� four-year tenure. Before taking over the Cleveland job, Davis had revitalized the University of Miami�s football program. There is speculation he will go back to the college ranks � and there�s a Florida job that would be very good for him � but Davis said he has �no immediate plans to stay in coaching.�
Davis had total control of football operations with the Browns. In January, team owner Randy Lerner signed Davis to a two-year contract extension, and tacked on the title of Executive Vice President. Dwight Clark, the team�s former director of football operations, left in 2002, and Davis� power in the organization grew. This past offseason, Lerner hired former Green Bay GM Ron Wolf to help Davis evaluate the team and prepare for the draft. Wolf left after just a few months.
It is very hard to be both a coach and a GM in today�s NFL. The demands placed on coaches are fierce, with the win-now-or-else mentality being prevalent as the big business aspect of the sport has become more pronounced. Joe Gibbs, as just a coach, used to spend ridiculously long hours at his Redskins office (which he�s doing again); being a GM demands even more of a person�s time. Basically, being a head coach in the NFL is the equivalent of having two full-time jobs. When GM duties are added on, that�s at least three full-time jobs, and that�s simply too many. The era of the Coach/GM should be brought to an end before more franchises damage themselves.
The fact remains that, regardless what you or I thought of Butch Davis, he won only 40% of his games with the Browns. That�s not close to being good enough in the NFL.
Offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie will finish out the season as the interim coach.
Alas, Madden 2003 Greatness is Fleeting
Tampa released veteran K Martin Gramatica, fresh off a game in which he missed three field goals, and replaced him with Arena Leaguer Jay Taylor. Gramatica, who used to be very accurate, missed kicks of 39 and 37 yards � the latter of which would have broken a 14-14 tie with 2:00 to go � and had a 26-yard try blocked against the Panthers. Following the 37-yard miss, Carolina drove 73 yards for the winning touchdown. Gramatica was 11-for-19 this season, just 2 for his last 9, and had not made a FG of more than 22 yards since October 10th.
The Golden Dome Needs a Lot of Polish
After decades of insisting it wasn�t like every other major college out there, Notre Dame went out and proved that it was. In a Football Factory move, Notre Dame fired head coach Tyrone Willingham after three seasons. During that time, Notre Dame had a winning record, at 21-15. This is the first time Notre Dame has fired a football coach while there were still years left on his contract � Willingham�s deal was for five years.
Even Gerry Faust got five years in South Bend. Bob Davie, Lou Holtz�s less-than-impressive replacement, also got his full five years. Why was Willingham�s case so different, especially considering the team had a winning record during his tenure?
"We simply have not made the progress on the field that we need to make," athletic director Kevin White said in a news conference. "Nor have we been able to create the positive momentum necessary in our efforts to return the Notre Dame program to the elite level of the college football world."
Translation: �The boosters who give piles of money to this school aren�t happy with the coach, so we�re going to fire a guy with a winning record and a sterling reputation to make some rich busybodies happy.� I have to wonder how many of those boosters were just unhappy because their beloved Catholic school � home of tolerance and liberal arts � hired a black man to coach the nation�s most visible football program. As a white fellow, I�m not qualified to play the race card, but I have to wonder.
Willingham will land on his feet. He became an instant candidate for every college coaching vacancy in the country, and his most likely destination looks to be Washington. The real losers in this are Notre Dame�s redshirt and fourth-year juniors: they had to go thru Bob Davie, the George O�Leary fiasco, and now the Willingham firing. At least the seniors get to move on to other things.
Dr. Tom�s Official Power Rankings
Instead of my usual insightful, witty, and pithy one-liners, this week, I�m going to predict each team�s final record, and whether or not they�ll make the playoffs. This might seem easy after each team has played 11 games, but remember that each conference�s playoff picture is ridiculously convoluted right up until the last game is played. Team A is tied with Team B, but B won more games under a full moon in 40-degree weather, so they have the edge. I�m not delving into meteorology (though it�s probably easier than the NFL�s playoff tiebreakers), but I am peering into my crystal ball over the next four weeks.
Watch for a couple mini-rants along the way, too.
1. Steelers (10-1). The finish: 14-2, division winner. Watch out this Sunday night, though.
2. 2. Patriots (10-1). The finish: 15-1, home-field advantage. They have an easy schedule from here on out.
3. Eagles (10-1). The finish: 14-2, home-field advantage in the much weaker NFC.
4. Falcons (9-2). The finish: 13-3, division winner. And Vick rushes for 1000 yards, a first for NFL QBs.
5. Colts (8-3). The finish: 12-4, division winner. Manning�s final TD count: 56. Yes, I�m finally conceding that he�ll break Dan Marino�s record. The reality is that I�ve known it all along, but just kept hoping he�d fall off the pace. Like I�ve said, I like Manning, but I�ll never like the Colts, and I don�t want to see that bloody team have any NFL records to its credit. I�ve had a couple email exchanges over the past week or two about this, so I�ll address it here: yes, I think the Colts running up the score shows bad sportsmanship on their part. In this case, I mean still going for the throat in the fourth quarter with insurmountable leads. Those are the times when you pull your starters to rest them and reduce injury risks, not try for more passing TDs. Manning setting a new record for passing TDs this season is inevitable, and I�ll give him his props when he does it. But I�ll be cursing the Colts the whole time.
6. Chargers (8-3). The finish: 11-5, division winner. Antonio Gates is having quite the silly season himself.
7. Packers (7-4). The finish: 10-6, wild card. That winning streak will end soon. Very soon.
8. Broncos (7-4). The finish: 10-6, wild card. The more the season goes on, the more I think Denver got the worse end of the Clinton Portis-Champ Bailey deal. Portis isn�t putting up his Denver numbers, but he plays for the worst offense in professional sports. Bailey, on the other hand, is supposed to a shut-down corner � in fact, he�s supposed to the premier shutdown corner in the NFL, according to the chaps in the announce booths. Why, then, did Jerry Porter get behind him for two TDs this past Sunday? And WHERE was Bailey on the second one? He was apparently playing tight on the Invisible Man, because Porter ran right by him and stood wide-open in the end zone, the Denver defense avoiding him like he were a leper waving a fallen-off hand at them. Bailey was busy covering no one; shouldn�t the best shutdown corner in the NFL actually cover someone on that play? Chad Johnson burned Bailey for a couple of 50-yarders earlier in the season, too. I think �Champ� needs a vowel transplant in his first name. With his salary, he can certainly afford to buy a �u.�
9. Vikings. (7-4). The finish: 11-5, division winner. I know, it�s Minnesota, but I�ll drink the Kool-Aid again.
10. RAVENS~! (7-4). The finish: 10-6, wild card. Kyle Boller needs to put the New England game far behind him.
11. Jets (8-3). The finish: 10-6, lose the wild-card spot on tiebreakers. Sorry, Herman.
12. Jaguars (6-5). The finish: 9-7, out of the playoffs. Dallas drafted Terence Newman ahead of Byron Leftwich.
13. Bills (5-6). The finish: 9-7, out of the playoffs. After their start, that�s a heck of a finish to build upon.
14. Rams (5-6). The finish: 8-8, division winner. Yes, you read that correctly. Lame, thy name is NFC.
15. Seahawks (6-5). The finish: 8-8, maybe a wild card. I wonder who Mike Holmgren�s real estate agent is?
16. Bengals (5-6). The finish: 6-10. Sorry, Marvin, but you�re still on the right track.
17. Giants (5-6). The finish: 8-8, wild card. Yep, that�s two .500 teams in the playoffs. Sigh.
18. Texans (5-6). The finish: 7-9. Their big comeback win is something to build upon.
19. Panthers (4-7). The finish: 8-8, lose the wild-card spot on tiebreakers. Hope for health next year, guys.
20. Bucs (4-7). The finish: 6-10. Gruden to Notre Dame? A 6-10 season could be the push.
21. Titans (4-7). The finish: 7-9. I�m not buying into Steve McNair�s retirement talk, but we�ll see.
22. Cowboys (4-7). The finish: 6-10. Their ninth loss will eliminate them, but that�s a short audition for Drew Henson.
23. Raiders (4-7) The finish: 5-11. Norv Turner: great offensive coordinator, lousy head coach.
24. Chiefs (3-8). The finish: 6-10. Odds on Dick Vermeil turning on the waterworks after the season: 1-to-1,000,000,000,000.
25. Lions (4-7). The finish: 7-9. They�re set at RB for a while; now QB is the question mark.
26. Cardinals (4-7). The finish: 5-11. Josh McCown must have kicked Dennis Green�s dog.
27. Bears (4-7) The finish: 5-11. Jeff George starts in Week 14. Guaranteed.
28. Saints (4-7) The finish: 5-11. Aaron Brooks� act is starting to wear thin. He needs to smarten up.
29. Browns (3-8). The finish: 4-12. They might even lose out. Miami�s not an auto-win for this team.
30. Racists (3-8). The finish: 4-12. Joe Gibbs� teams used to average well over 20 points a game. This one hasn�t scored 20 points in a game yet this season. Pathetic. Before the season, I said the game had not passed Gibbs by, and that a genius coach like him could succeed in this much different era. He�s certainly putting that position to the test this season. I think Gibbs needs to re-evaluate his offensive strategies in the offseason. The league has had a dozen years to adjust, and with guys like Bill Belichick and Marvin Lewis doing a lot of defensive brainstorming, Gibbs will need to make counter-adjustments. I think he can, but that alone doesn�t make the Racists a winner next season.
31. Dolphins (2-9). The finish: 3-13. Ricky Williams gets them a 5th-round pick. At most.
32. 49ers (1-10). The finish: 0-16. The NFL will discover androids played in their lone win and revoke it.
Picks for Week 13
Last Week: 12-4
Season to Date: 107-53 (66.87%)
Arizona 13 at Detroit 17, 1:00 p.m.
Atlanta 26 at Tampa 17, 1:00 p.m.
Buffalo 24 at Miami 14, 1:00 p.m.
Carolina 23 at New Orleans 20, 1:00 p.m.
Cincinnati 17 at Baltimore 22, 1:00 p.m.
Houston 16 at NJ Jets 21, 1:00 p.m.
Minnesota 29 at Chicago 13, 1:00 p.m.
New England 24 at Cleveland 10, 1:00 p.m.
The City 16 at St. Louis 27, 1:00 p.m.
Tennessee 13 at Indianapolis 34, 1:00 p.m.
Denver 23 at San Diego 26, 4:05 p.m.
Kansas City 24 at Oakland 27, 4:05 p.m.
Green Bay 21 at Philadelphia 27, 4:15 p.m.
NJ Giants 20 at Washington 9, 4:15 p.m.
Pittsburgh 22 at Jacksonville 19, 8:30 p.m.
Dallas 17 at Seattle 23, 9:00 p.m. (MNF)
Next week: Juniors refuse to declare for the NFL draft just to avoid playing for the 49ers.
Dr. Tom Fowler
drtomfowler at yahoo dot com
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