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NFL Conference Championship Weekend
Posted by Peter Kostka, Byron Vester, and Dr. Tom on Jan 18, 2003, 15:00
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AFC/NFC CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
The NFL playoffs, which have been filled with great moments and the spectre of controversy, are drawing to a close. Four teams are battling it out this weekend to determine who goes to the Super Bowl. In this column, three TSM writers will give their game analyses, and their picks for which two teams get to fly to San Diego.
NFC Championship Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
Veterans Stadium, 3:00 PM ET, FOX
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen their seasons end at the Eagles� hands the past two seasons. Both times, they�ve gone into Philadelphia in January, and both times, they�ve lost games that were only close at the opening coin toss. This year, the Bucs got a new attitude, replacing the lackadaisical Tony Dungy with the more fiery and spirited Jon Gruden. Gruden transplanted his success in Oakland to Tampa Bay right away, leading the Bucs into another playoff showdown against their January nemesis. Will Tampa Bay�s problems in cold weather persist, or will Jon Gruden force them to look past that and just play their game?
On the other side of the ball, the Philadelphia Eagles lost only once in the conference all year en route to wrapping up home-field advantage in the playoffs. Despite losing All-Pro QB Donovan McNabb to a broken ankle, the Eagles never missed a beat. A.J. Feeley stepped up and led the team to a 4-1 record in his five starts. The Eagles� defense did the rest of the work, making big plays seemingly every week. This week, they host the Bucs, whom they beat 20-10 in the regular season, and whom they�ve owned in the playoffs the last two seasons. Does Philadelphia have what it takes to get one more win against an improved Tampa Bay?
AFC Championship Game
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Network Associates Coliseum, 6:30 PM ET, CBS
No respect. Rodney Dangerfield and the Tennessee Titans have something in common. After their horrible 1-4 start, where their defense and special teams imploded in a spectacularly ugly fashion, the Titans were given up for dead. However, Jeff Fisher regrouped his charges, and the team went 10-1 the rest of the season, earning a first-round bye and a home game in the playoffs. QB Steve McNair was on the injury report almost the whole season, and wasn�t able to practice in December. The team went 5-0 with McNair�s practice coming on game day. Their defense rebounded, allowing only 16 points per game after their terrible start. Despite their amazing turnaround, the Titans have no Pro Bowlers on their roster. Their battle Sunday is an much for the Conference Championship as it is for respect. Will the Titans earn a ticket to San Diego, as well as the respect they deserve for where they are?
Too old. The Oakland Raiders heard this several times during the season, especially during their 0-4 streak. They just had too many old guys who couldn�t stand up to a full season anymore. All the Raiders did was go 7-1 over the season�s second half to wrap up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. QB Rich Gannon was the league�s MVP, passing for nearly 4700 yards and 26 touchdowns, as his precision short and medium passes dissected many of the league�s defenses. RB Charlie Garner punished teams who focused too much on the pass, where Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Roland Williams, and emerging star Jerry Porter were waiting to catch the ball. The Raiders have a lot of weapons on offense, a tough defense, and tons of experience. Will the Raiders� high-powered offense and wealth of big-game experience be enough to put away the resilient Titans?
Three TSM staffers give their analyses and predictions:
Peter Kostka
Titans vs. Raiders: People kept saying that the Jets were "last year's New England Patriots", but I think the Titans are even closer. The Jets were like last year's Ravens: they beat a highly overrated team in the wild card then got schooled in the Divisional. The Titans have the same record (11-5 including a long winning streak), a first round bye, played a controversial divisional game which they won in OT with a field goal, no Pro Bowlers, a QB no one is really looking at (Steve McNair) and are going into a championship game on the road at what will be a very loud, very hostile environment
against an opponent that is cocky. The only negative thing I see for the Titans is that they were punished against Pittsburgh, so they might not be all that healthy going into this game. Still, I'm going with the Titans
28-21.
Buccaneers vs. Eagles: I don't like the Bucs, I'll make that clear right now. They talk WAAAAY too much for a team that can barely get past the second round, despite having byes. I don't know if the Eagles can be any more
confident; I mean, they got homefield advantage WITHOUT the player people said "was all the offense they had". Now, he's back. I see four things that seriously hurt Tampa:
1. If Brad Johnson is injured, then it's bye-bye offense since their backups are Rob "On His Back More Times Than A Porn Star" Johnson, and Shaun "Which Way Did That Pass Go?" King.
2. The Eagles' defense is right on par with Tampa's.
3. Tampa has won only one game with a gametime temperature of under 40. It's supposed to be 20 on Sunday.
4. Jon Gruden will get desperate if Tampa falls behind, and that'll lead to trouble.
I'm going with the Eagles easliy, 35-10.
Byron Vester
NFC Championship Game: The way I see it, Tampa Bay has only one way to win and that's Brad Johnson playing the game of his life. BUT... I don't think he'll ever get the chance to because Philly has two of the best cover corners in the game and the fastest linebacking corps outside of TB themselves. Add perennial All-Pro Hugh Douglas to the formula and the Bucs are fucked. Now, on the offensive side of the ball for Philly, the key to the offense is the running game, obviously. If the Triple D Connection (Donovan, Duce, Dorsey) gets at least 150 total rushing yards combined and 1 rushing TD, the Bucs are as good as toast.
AFC Championship Game: This one is tougher to call. The Team From Hell is on a major roll after squeaking out that victory last week, but their opponents are on a roll themselves after wiping out the overrated J-O-K-E-S, so both teams are playing inspired football now and this game is going to show it. It's pretty tough to go against Steve McNair after what he's managed to do this season, but if anybody's going to outmatch him in the battle of QBs, it
would most certainly be the MVP of the entire league. On the defensive side of the ball, the Raider secondary answered the questions of whether it was ready to be tested by rattling the seemingly unrattleable Chad Pennington last week, so expect them to bring their A games against the Titans' WRs. The only way I see Tennessee possibly pulling out a win would be if the running game got on track to put the Raiders off-balance. If it doesn't, Steve's gonna have some company in the backfield almost all day. As it is, I'll call it a Raiders victory, but barely.
Dr. Tom
Bucs at Eagles: Everyone talks about Tampa Bay�s dismal record in cold weather. They finally won a game in the cold this year, beating a rather dismal Bears team in the final week of the regular season. Philadelphia Sunday is supposed to be in the low 20s with a chance of snow. There�s an important difference between this year�s Bucs and last year�s model, though: Jon Gruden. Tony Dungy was a good coach, but he never struck me as much of a motivator (look at his Colts� playoff pasting this year), and I think he let the cold-weather stigma hang over the team�s head. Gruden was the coach when the team slew that albatross, so you know he won�t let it linger. Besides, a lot of those losses came when Tampa Bay was a dreadful team, and had trouble winning games in any weather.
The problem is, the Eagles are a lot better than the Bears. Their defense can stand up to Tampa Bay�s, and their offense is much more explosive. Donovan McNabb is both an excellent passer and runner, and Duce Staley is an underrated running back. Philly�s passing attack has been solid the whole season. Compare that to Tampa Bay�s offense: a pair of power running backs in Mike Alstott and Michael Pittman, an overrated QB in Brad Johnson, and an overrated primary receiver in Keyshawn Johnson. When it comes down to it, the Eagles can walk the walk on offense, while the Bucs can only talk the talk.
Both defenses will play well, but the Eagles just have the better offense. Tampa Bay�s season ends in Philadelphia for the third straight year. Eagles 23-16.
Titans at Raiders: This game is a lot harder for me to pick. The Raiders have been tremendous in the second half, losing only to a tough Miami team. Their passing game is the best in the league, with the league MVP at quarterback throwing to a trio of talented receivers, two of whom are surefire first-ballot Hall of Famers. Charlie Garner is an explosive running back who can make defenses pay when they back off to cover the pass; he�s also a good receiver out of the backfield. Oakland�s defense hasn�t gotten a lot of press this year, but their secondary is the best in the league, and they have hard-nosed players everywhere else. They abused wunderkind Chad Pennington en route to easily beating the Jets. They also seem quite confident at home, with �The Black Hole� making Oakland a difficult place to play. New coach Bill Callahan hasn�t missed a beat from the days of Jon Gruden. If anything, the players like him better than they did the popular Gruden: Callahan has structured the team�s practices to keep his veteran squad fresh in the playoffs, and it has paid off so far.
The Titans, however, are the hottest team in the league. Their defense has rebounded after a dismal start, playing like everyone expected it to despite missing Jevon Kearse for much of the season. Tennessee�s problem on defense will be dealing with all of the Raiders� weapons. They can do well against the passing game, but run the risk of Charlie Garner running all over them as a consequence. On offense, Eddie George pounds the ball at opposing defenses, and his punishing running style is good for wearing them down. He�s not the back he was two or three seasons ago, but he�s still a hard runner with a knack for playing big in big games. Steve McNair had an excellent year despite his myriad injuries, but an overall lack of quality among the receiving corps isn�t a good matchup for the Titans against the Raiders� secondary. They�ll be looking for Frank Wycheck a lot, and McNair will certainly look for his running lanes. Tennessee has one intangible going for them: the quest for respect. They had no players make the Pro Bowl, and many people thought Pittsburgh would destroy them last week. Tennessee constantly gets the short end of the stick, despite proving constantly that they deserve to be where they are. There was a team in 2000 that was consistently sold short throughout the playoffs, and that team also played the AFC Championship game in Oakland. That team was the Baltimore Ravens, and I think we all know how they finished. The Titans of this year remind me a lot of the Ravens of 2000.
This is a VERY tough game to pick. It�s hard to pick against the home teams in the Division and Conference rounds of the playoffs, and the Raiders make a compelling case for winning at home. Tennessee screams the intangibles to me, and that�s hard to ignore. I�m going to call the upset here: Titans 20-17.
Adding things up, all three of us like the Eagles in the NFC game, while the Titans take the split decision in the AFC showdown. Here�s to an excellent weekend of football.
Check back next weekend when the TSM staff looks at the Super Bowl.
Peter Kostka, Byron Vester, and Dr. Tom
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