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Movies / TV
10 (and a half) Burning Questions for the 2004 NFL Season
Posted by The Smart NFL Marks on Sep 9, 2004, 15:25
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It finally begins tonight. At Gilette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass, the New England Patriots begin their defense of the Lombardi Trophy in an AFC Championship Game rematch with the Indianapolis Colts. Many people have been waiting for this night all year, including these four gentlemen. To add our own bit of hype to the new season, the following 10 (and a half) questions were posed to the panel:
#1. Which offseason (draft, free agency, trade) pickup do you think will make the greatest impact with his new team?
Brandon Truitt: Terrell Owens (WR, Philadelphia Eagles). By adding a legitimate #1 receiver in Terrell, this may be the year that the Eagles break through the NFC Championship Game to the Super Bowl. (I used to be in the stands at Southern Miss when Eagles WR Todd Pinkston was playing there and even *I* wouldn't say that he's a legitimate #1 receiver for an NFL team.)
Dr. Tom: Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit.
I know, I know . . . it�s the Lions, right? Take a look at their roster before you laugh. They have some serious offensive potential on this team now. Charles Rogers and Roy Williams are an exciting tandem of young WRs, with good speed and hands. Joey Harrington, now in his third year, is ready to really take control of Steve Mariucci�s West Coast offense. He has good speed at receiver and is no longer stuck with a cadaver behind him in the backfield. This is where Jones comes in. He�s fast, has great field vision, and can hit the holes (note the improvements to the offensive line with the addition of Damien Woody) quickly. He�ll need to develop some receiving skills, but all in due time. My prediction: Jones rushes for 1200 yards, takes a lot of pressure off Harrington, and the Lions, while missing the playoffs, spoil the postseason for a few teams.
BTW, Terrell Owens? 1100 yards, 8 TDs, not a huge difference-maker. There you go.
Byron Vester: Kellen Winslow, Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns
Now, while I don't expect Cleveland to do much of anything record-wise, Kellen automatically makes a really shitty Browns offense that much better and with former VTer Lee Suggs(who should probably start if he isn't already), the team is one good QB away from being really scary on offense. While others may think Winslow's just a big-mouthed primadonna(which he is, honestly), make no mistake about this: He works his ass off on the field from run-blocking to running his routes and that's something a guy like Jeff Garcia needs to be effective when he's getting blitzed heavily.
Peter Kostka: Yeah, you have Corey Dillon and Terrell Owens changing addresses, but how about Jeff Garcia going to Cleveland? He gives the Browns a much better QB than Tim Couch or Kelly Holcombe, and just may be the reason that Cleveland goes from a 6-10 team to an 8-8 or 9-7 team. If William Green can finally show he was the back he was in Boston College, and Kellen Winslow II turns into a good option, the Browns could be a bit of a surprise team this year.
#2. With the sudden retirement of Ricky Williams, how do you see the Dolphins dealing with the loss of their #1 offensive threat?
Brandon: Not very well. Jay Fiedler is not what you'd consider to be a top QB and with Ricky Williams gone and WR David Boston out for the season, things don't look good. They DID pick up WR Marty Booker from the Bears, but they still need to find a running back quick.
Dr. Tom: As well as they can, which is probably not very well. Williams really shafted the Dolphins by leaving the NFL behind to see the world and smoke the ganja. If his retirement had been timed better, Miami could have brought someone like Eddie George in to fill the gap. Alas, the Dolphins are left with their backup of the last few years, Travis Minor, who now takes over as the featured back. The Dolphins won�t emphasize the run as much as they did with Williams, and the acquisition of Marty Booker helps them with their passing game. With Booker and Chris Chambers on opposite sides of the field, one of them is bound to be open and able to make a play. Don�t give up the Dolphins for dead yet; I think they�ll surprise some people who just expected them to fold up and die after Williams left. Things like that bring teams together. I think they�ll go 8-8, maybe 9-7.
Byron: Increased focus on the passing game. Getting Booker from Chicago was a damn good move since all the RB worth a damn were already signed when Ricky pulled his stunt, so getting a bookend for Chambers was an absolute must. Now, the real problem with Miami is whether their O-line will actually block this year or if they'll turn out another sub-par performance like last year where Ricky and Jay were getting pummelled almost weekly. I wouldn't say they'll be terrible this year, but expecting more than 7 wins out of this squad might be a bit of a stretch.
Peter: Not very well. On top of that, they lost David Boston (although they picked up Marty Booker, trading one of their top defensive studs for him), and A.J. Feely doesn�t seem to be panning out that well. They have Travis Minor (who I admit I drafted for my fantasy team) and Lamar Gordon to fill in the backfield, but both of those guys combined won�t give you the production of one Ricky Williams. If I was Dave Wannstedt, I�d be making sure the ol� resume is in order. Of course, once Ricky comes back from Katmandu and has used up all his stash, he�ll probably be bored enough to come crawling back.
#3. Will we see Kurt Warner benched anytime during the season in favor of Eli Manning?
Brandon: Yes, partially because Manning was handed the keys to the franchise as part of his enormous contract and partially because Warner has been a shell of himself over the past two years.
Considering that the Giants do NOT have the talent that Warner was working with in St. Louis, I don't think he'd be able to put up the kind of numbers they'd need to justify keeping Eli on the bench.
Dr. Tom: Yes, and it will happen before the first week of October. Warner might be recovered from his myriad thumb and hand injuries of the past few seasons, but he�s still a statue back there, and his recent lack of anything resembling success has to weigh on his confidence. Once an NFL QB loses his confidence, it�s very hard to get it back. Playing behind a lousy line for a team not expected to make the playoffs is not the ideal way for one to recover one�s confidence. Look for Warner to get yet another concussion sometime this month, and then it�s Eli�s team.
Byron:Oh hell yeah. The injuries may be healed, but the mental cloud that's been hovering over Kurt's brain since 2001 is still there and painfully evident everytime he plays. I give 'em til maybe November at the latest because I suspect Warner will really try to dispel the notions that he's washed up and eventually fail and then it's all Eli from there.
Peter: That�s a great choice, isn�t it? A guy who hasn�t won a game since the 2002 NFC title game and a rookie, who may be part of a great football family, but Eli�s still a rookie. That being said, unless Warner shows that he can revert back to the Kurt Warner before the Patriots kicked his ass, he may keep his job. If not, with the contract they gave Eli, he�ll be calling snaps by week 5.
#4a. Which team that did not make the playoffs last year do you think has the best chance of making a splash?
Brandon: The New Orleans Saints are a good possibility because they have loads of talent and have beaten some of the best teams in the league over the last few years, including two wins over eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay in 2002.
The problem they've had has been keeping their heads together and not overlooking a 1-12 team like they did against Cincinnati in 2002.
They've loaded up on offense by selecting WR Devery Henderson to compliment Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth, they've got an excellent defensive line, they've got one of the best running backs in the league in Deuce McAllister, and they've got QB Aaron Brooks, who could be one of the best in the league if he ever gets his head together.
The only question mark at this point is with their defensive backs, but how big a question remains to be seen. Considering the changes in Defensive Holding and Pass Interference calls this year, I'm not sure that this area could have been addressed significantly anyway.
Dr. Tom: I�ll pick one from each conference.
AFC: Bills. Now that they�ve finally rid themselves of the spineless Gregg Williams, the Bills look poised to succeed. Travis Henry, when he�s not putting the ball on the ground, is an excellent back. Willis McGahee is waiting in the wings, and will fill in ably should Henry go the route of many NFL RBs and get hurt. Drew Bledsoe, coming off a career-worst season, will rebound and have a good year. Speedy rookie WR Lee Evans will stretch defenses, Eric Moulds is recovered from last season�s groin injury, and Bobby Shaw should thrive as a slot receiver. The defense will again be solid. Look for 10 wins and a playoff berth.
NFC: Saints. The talent is there; the problem has always been putting it together and getting the most out of it. In Deuce McAllister, the Saints have a top-5 RB to carry their offense. In Aaron Brooks, they have a QB who can pass and run, and whose 24-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio last year is very encouraging for 2004. They have a good trio of receivers in Cell Phone Man Joe Horn, Donte �Ow! My hamstrings!� Stallworth, and rookie Devery Henderson, a speed merchant. On the downside, Brooks lost a league-high 11 fumbles last season, and there are questions on the defense, especially with the back 7. Look for Brooks to improve his ball protection (shaddap), and for the defense to be good enough.
Byron: This maybe a homer-ish opinion, but I think the Jacksonville Jaguars have the best chance. With a much improved Leftwich behind the center, a healthy Fred Taylor(minor spain, aside), a more cohesive O-line, and two potential stud rookies(Williams and Wilford) to tag along with Jimmy Smith, the offense has the potential to be downright scary. Throw in a defense which was top 5 in rushing defense last year that let loose with some deadweight(Douglas and Brackens) and the Jags have just about an all-around package(the kicking game is still very shakey, which boters me). I don't think they'll compete with Indy for the top spot in the South, but with the decline of the Titans, I think they may get second in the South and a possible wildcard berth. As for record-wise, I'll say 9-7 with the potential for maybe 2 more wins if they get lucky.
Peter: I want to pick Cincinnati, but I just can�t make my fingers type out �I pick the Beng�� See? Although That AFC Team Named After a Type of Tiger should finally make the playoffs this year, I�m going with, and I hate to say it, the New York Jets. Pennington�s injury was probably the only thing that kept them out of the Wild Card running last year (since it meant Old Man Testaverde was running the show), as they played teams tough almost every week last season (including New England twice). If Chad stays healthy, and Curtis Martin can keep his streak of 1,000 yard seasons intact (which stands at 9 years), that offense will be scary. But as it has been shown, �defense wins championships�, so it will be interesting to see if they can improve over a not so stellar performance last year on the other side of the ball.
#4b. Which team that DID make the playoffs do you think will fall the farthest?
Brandon: Dallas. Between the Quincy Carter controversy and the fact that the biggest ego in the NFL, Keyshawn Johnson, has joined the team, things REALLY do not look good this year for the Cowboys.
Dr. Tom: None. All the teams that made the playoffs last season have the capability to do it again. Dallas� demise has been greatly exaggerated, in my opinion. Vinny Testaverde still throws a great ball, Keyshawn Johnson catches a lot of first downs, and the tandem of Eddie George and Julius Jones (with some help from preseason surprise ReShard Lee) will more than cover last season�s RB production. Losing Quincy Carter isn�t the end of the world. Dallas will challenge Philadelphia, a team many people are overrating, for the division title. The loser ends up with a wild-card berth.
Byron: Hmmm... that's a tough one. I want to say Tennessee, but you never can tell with McNair at the helm. I'll go with a safe pick and say none. Really, none of the playoff teams from last year lost anything significant aside from Dallas with Carter and Hambrick and those two are(and have been) easily replaced, so I'll just stick with none.
Peter: The Dallas Cowboys. First they grab a QB who hasn�t even been in the SPORT for the last 3 years (Drew Henson), then they grab a guy who will probably be receiving Social Security by the end of the season (Vinny Testaverde), needing a solid rusher, they pass over one of the best backs in the Draft (Stephen Jackson) and grab Eddie George, who�s prime was thataway. And on top of all that, they release who was seemingly their #1 QB for failing a team-administered drug test, which got the attention of the NFL. Sure the Cowboys have a great defense, but that offense does not look like one that will be seeing the end zone much this season. With the NFC East improving as it did, I wouldn�t be surprised to see them finish in the 7-9 area, Bill Parcells or no Parcells.
#5. Will the Raiders' locker room be the most entertaining to watch (or more accurately, listen to) this season?
Brandon: Considering that their old coach is now in Nebraska attempting to teach the Cornhuskers how to use the pass, I think things will calm down. Things were worse than normal last year because they went from AFC Champion to 4-12, which is always a pisser for morale.
Dr. Tom: Not really. They should improve on last season�s horrid 4-12 mark. As long as Rich Gannon doesn�t have any big blowups in the locker room this year, I think things will be pretty quiet on the Oakland front.
Byron: Nah, Calahan's gone, so maybe now Woodson will stop acting like a primadonna bitch (or Deion Sanders. Whichever you prefer). They should do better than last year's 4-12 flop of a season with vets like Collins and Gannon at QB (provided both stay healthy). I could see a problem at RB if Garner gets injured, but their passing game with Porter as the featured guy should make up for it.
Peter: Well, we know that Warren Sapp will be on SportsCenter almost every week, so it�s up to you to decide if he�s entertaining, or an overrated, fat, egotistical idiot. Otherwise, if the Raiders actually start winning games, I think that the team will stay relatively calm (can�t say as much about their fans, however). If they start having a season like they had last year, look out.
#6. Which player do you see making "The Leap" (to borrow a phrase from Bill Simmons) this year, becoming a force in the league?
Brandon: Saints rookie Devery Henderson out of LSU certainly appears to be WELL on his way to being the next great Wide Receiver in the NFL. He only has three catches so far in the pre-season but they've averaged about 43 yards each.
He has breakaway speed once he catches the ball and was able to make miracle catches at LSU including the Bluegrass Miracle, in which a Hail Mary bounced off of several Kentucky players and into Henderson's hands for the last-second victory.
Putting him in the lineup alongside Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth means that the Saints will have a real passing game as long as Aaron Brooks doesn't drop the ball when he goes back to pass.
Dr. Tom: Joey Harrington. He has good weapons at receiver, a very talented rookie RB, and an improved offensive line to protect him. This is the year he steps up as an NFL QB. The Lions are still too green to make the playoffs, but they will ruin the postseason hopes of more than one team. Look out for them over the next few seasons, though.
Byron: If SD had a decent passing attack, I'd say LT for sure, but since they don't, I'll go with Chad Pennington. I think Chad is just on the cusp of being something special and just needs to have a breakout year to go over the edge and barring injury, I think it'll happen either this year or the next(if they grab a damn good RB in the draft next year to replace Old Man Martin).
Peter: *Warning, HOMER PICK. Warning, HOMER PICK!!!!!*
Deion Branch, Patriots receiver. He was thought of as a late round steal for New England when they drafted him after their first SuperBowl win, and I think this will be his breakout year. Sure, he won�t be putting up gigantic numbers, since Brady spreads the ball around too much for any one receiver to do so, but he will become one of the more reliable grabbers on that team. He�ll barely pass the 1,000 yard mark and grab 7-10 TDs.
#7. What do you think will be the biggest surprise (good or bad) this season?
Brandon: Ricky Williams will decide to come back to the Miami Dolphins in order to avoid paying back millions of dollars that they want returned, then he'll promptly get a fourth positive drug test and be suspended for a full season.
Dr. Tom: Surprises in the NFL are extremely hard to predict. Every year, there�s seemingly one team that falls off the map, and another that rises from nothing to challenge for the postseason. That�s how things are in a league with a hard salary cap and a short schedule, where momentum is almost as important as franchise-building. I think two teams written off for the scrapheap will surprise some people: Miami and Pittsburgh. And I think the Bears will be better than many are giving them credit for.
Byron: Seattle. They were pretty damn good last year and came within an eyelash of being in the NFC semis against Philly. The entire offense returns and if their 3 stud receivers can hold onto the ball(all those drops last year are inexcusable), I can see at LEAST the NFC Title game in this team's future this year.
Peter: Like Tom said, these things are incredibly tough to predict (that�s why they�re called surprises, I guess), but I�m going to say that the Ben�gggg�.dammit. The Cincinatti team will make the AFC Divisional Finals, only to lose to New England in Gillette.
#8. Who wins the AFC?
Brandon: The Indianapolis Colts. Considering the changes in Defensive Holding and Pass Interference calls, they won't get manhandled by New England as much as they did last year and their pass-heavy strategy will pay off better.
Dr. Tom: It�s hard not to pick the Patriots to go back to the Super Bowl. They�re so well-coached and well-prepared for every matchup that betting against them is impossible. I don�t think they�ll go 14-2 again � 12-4 is about right � but I do think they�ll get back to the Super Bowl. Dark horse pick: Denver.
Byron: It's hard to argue against the defending champs, but I feel the new rule concerning DBs putting their hands on WRs will hurt them somewhat if they can't adjust. With that in mind, I'm gonna go with the Indianapolis Colts as the AFC representative because even though I despise Peyton, he's still the best QB in the league and if Edge gets back to his pre-knee injury days, that team is an offensive juggernant. The only thing that may hurt them big time maybe their defense if it starts out strong like last year and peters out again. So again, I'm taking Indy with them beating NE in the AFC Title game with my dark horse being KC.
Peter: *Warning, HOMER PICK II!!!!! Warning, HOMER PICK II!!!!!*
You really can�t pick against the champs right now. They actually improved in areas where they needed improvement (running back and punter) and didn�t lose any major components from last year�s 14-2 team (Ted Washington is debatable, he was hurt for something like 8 weeks and the Pats went something like 6-2 in that stretch.)
The Patriots beat the Chiefs (who take out the Colts in the previous round).
Dark Horses: Cincinatti, Denver.
#9. Who wins the NFC?
Brandon: The Philadelphia Eagles. Adding top wide receiver Terell Owens as Donovan McNabb's #1 target may be enough to put them over the top and break their streak of NFC Championship Game losses.
They really need to bring in an additional running back, though, as Duce Staley is now in Pittsburgh and both Bruce Perry and Correll Buckhalter are out for the season.
Dr. Tom: Seattle. Their offense returns intact from last season, and should move up and crack the top 5 in the league this year. Koren Robinson needs to step up and live up to his potential, and if he does, the Seahawks will put on a show on the offensive side of the ball. The defense is young, and features a starter (rookie SS Michael Boulware) playing an unfamiliar position (he was a LB in college). This unit has good speed and enough veterans to keep things under control. Head coach Mike Holmgren is gambling here, but coordinator Ray Rhodes is solid, and he�s confident in his troops. Dark horse pick: It�s not really a dark horse, but Carolina could always make it back.
Byron: WOOF. 3 quality teams(Philly, Carolina, Seattle) with at least two more if they got their acts together(the Saints) or if their QB doesn't throw boneheaded INTs that cost them the game(Green Bay) makes this a tough choice. Philly made the most improvements, but aside from TO, you have to wonder how well those improvements will do. Douglas was a bust in Jacksonville and Kearse has been hobbled for about 4 years now since he broke out in 99. They'll need to step up their games to make this a worthwhile investment for the Eagles since pratically every other playoff team aside from Dallas hasn't lost someone significant and teams will be definitely testing that defensive line since they really sucked against the run in the last couple of months last season. That being said, I think Philly will make the NFC Championship again, but they will fail again to the Seahawks with my dark horse being Carolina.
Peter: The NFC, although maybe not as talented as the AFC, is a bit tougher choice. The Eagles are thirsting to finally get to the big game after 3 straight �almost theres�, and the addition of TO will help the anemic receiving corps greatly. However, you also have Seattle; offensive powerhouse, decent defense, and a coach who knows how to win in Mike Holmgren. There�s also Carolina, who you know wants to get back to the big show. Washington is a possibility, but it remains to be seen if A) Clinton Portis can do it outside the Denver system and B) How much Champ Bailey not being there will affect the defense. And don�t forget the Vikings, who finally seem to have gotten their defense together, and have two great offensive weapons in Culpepper and Moss.
In fact, I�ll take Minnesota over Seattle. Seattle beats Philly in Philly in the Divisional round.
Dark Horses: Take your pick.
#10. Super Bowl XXXIX, who wins it?
Brandon: The Indianapolis Colts. Between Peyton Manning passing to Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James running the ball, they've got more options than the Eagles have as of this moment.
If the Eagles can get a good running back to compliment Donovan McNabb and Terell Owens, they might have a shot but, as of now, everyone will be looking for the pass because they don't have an established threat in the backfield.
Dr. Tom: Belichick vs. Holmgren: the league�s most recent untouchable boy genius coach against his predecessor, who�s managed to repair his reputation since becoming only a coach. In a defense vs. defense game like we had last season, the offenses came out to play. This one will be defense vs. offense, and no one prepares a defense to shut down an opposing offense better than Belichick. I�ll take the Patriots to repeat.
Byron: Indianapolis Colts. I think this is the next (and last step) in Manning getting the supposed monkey off his back about being a choker in the playoffs(even though he DID get past the first round last year) and everyone finally getting off his nuts about him being overrated.
Peter: So it�s Patriots vs. Vikings. Belichick will have his hands full trying to figure out how to stop Randy Moss while keeping Culpepper from running all around the field. If Minny�s defense is as good as everyone thinks they will be, that will pose a tough challenge for Brady and the offense. It will be a tight game, which might (again) come down to the wire, and that�s where Brady shines; when the pressure is on and title hopes rest on your shoulders. It will be 3 out of 4, and the dynasty begins.
Patriots over Minnesota. MVP - Corey Dillon.
Well, there you have it. Enjoy the season, and keep your browser to TSM for more NFL coverage over the next few months.
Want to respond? Have a beef with one of the panelists? Then head to the thread in the sports forum (registration required).
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