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Super Bowl XXXVII Predictions
Posted by Byron Vester, Peter Kostka, Bryan Staebell & Dr. Tom on Jan 25, 2003, 15:07
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SUPER BOWL XXXVII
After twenty weeks of football, the season has come down to just two teams, playing on the biggest stage in North American professional sports. Over a billion people worldwide will watch the NFL�s ultimate survivors fight to see just who is the very best. Some of the greatest teams of all time have won on this international stage, while others were overcome by grittier opponents. In this article, four TSM staffers will give their predictions and analyses of the games.
Super Bowl XXXVII
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4) vs. Oakland Raiders (13-5)
Sunday, 1/26/03. Kickoff at 6:18 PM ET, ABC
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers paid a lot, in terms of money and draft picks, to sign coach Jon Gruden away from the Oakland Raiders. While some questioned the wisdom of $8 million and four good draft choices for a coach who�d never won the big one, Gruden immediately proved his value to the Bucs. He motivated the players like Tony Dungy never could, dispelling the notion that the team couldn�t win in cold weather. An offense that was basically awful in the Dungy regime was not great, but it was certainly improved, under Gruden. Brad Johnson had a very good year directing the offense, which started to gel and score more points as the season wore on. Mike Alstott and Michael Pittman led a punishing rushing attack, and a receiving corps led by motormouth Keyshawn Johnson and veteran Keenan McCardell showed that speed isn�t always as important as running precise routes.
The Bucs overcame the Eagles, and a cold, hostile environment in Veterans Stadium, to earn their tickets to San Diego. Their defense was as quick and tenacious as ever, solidifying their deserved reputation as the NFL�s best this season. The offense showed an ability to pound the ball at a good defense, as well as execute smart passes mixed in with the occasional big play. The Eagles didn�t help their own cause in the game, but the Bucs played an excellent game and stuck to favored Philadelphia on their home turf.
The Oakland Raiders earned a king�s ransom for letting their head coach go to Tampa Bay, then replaced him with relative unknown Bill Callahan. Shunning conventional wisdom about balanced offensive attacks, Callahan featured the pass all season. Relying on the poise of veteran QB Rich Gannon and the Raiders� trio of talented wide receivers, Callahan made the Oakland offense the most vertical since the 1984 Dolphins. Charlie Garner, a 1400-yard rusher on almost any other team, still earned almost 1000 yards on the ground, and showed his versatility by catching nearly 1000 yards worth of passes. The Raiders made no secret of the fact they were going to throw the ball, and teams still couldn�t stop their potent offense.
The Raiders fought past the resilient Titans, and the super resilient Steve McNair, to earn their trip to the big dance. Their offense was operating at peak efficiency, driving the ball consistently against the Titans� defense. Running 49 pass plays to only 9 running plays, the Raiders, as usual, made no secret of their game plan, but Tennessee still couldn�t stop them. Their defense, despite having trouble containing McNair, showed it was a solid unit and that injury concerns were really nothing to be concerned about. With salary cap Hell looming next season, the Raiders� veterans realize this might be their last shot at a Super Bowl ring.
The TSM staffers make their picks:
Byron Vester:
The #1 offense vs. the #1 defense... This will be the first time in the history of the league when this has happened in the biggest game of the year. As much as people make out of Tampa Bay's hellacious defense, just remember this was the same team that got anally violated against the Steelers on MNF a while back. And before anybody brings up the Miami/Oakland game, Miami had the best back in the league(Ricky Williams), so they could control the TOP and keep the Raider offense off the field. Tampa, on the other hand, doesn't have that luxury since both Mike Alstott and Michael Pittman are really below average. Add to the fact that the Bucs don't have any speedy receivers to stretch out the Raider secondary and I don't see how Tampa is going to score that much during the game, especially if they have to play catch-up with Oakland. On the flipside, if Tampa tries to bring the corner or safety blitz, the Oakland receiving core is going to eat them for lunch. I mean with two potential HOFs and a future superstar in Jerry Porter (oh yes, he will be), I really don't see how the Bucs can contain them unless they start dropping 7 every down. And then, there's the Raider running game, which while not spectacular, always seems to get the tough yards needed to keep the drives going. To surmise everything, the Super Bowl will be won by either the TB offense or the Oakland defense and even with last week's stellar showing, I think Gruden may have exhausted all of his surprises like the no-huddle and the constant motion, so I'll give the duke to the Oakland Raiders.
Prediction: Oakland
Peter Kostka:
This has the makings of a Super Bowl classic, or a typical "close in the first, one team takes off and dominates the rest of the way" game. On paper, this looks like a pretty interesting matchup: Two coaches in their first year taking their team all the way to the final game, a game which matches up the #1 offense (Oakland) against the #1 defense (Tampa Bay). Oakland definitely has the veteran presence, and, with Jerry Rice, a person who knows how to win the big one. Of course, Tampa has a pretty potent weapon: Jon Gruden, who coached the Raiders the year before, so he should have a good idea what they are all about. I just don't feel Tampa's offense is up to snuff, and that's not good since Oakland's defense isn't a pushover, either. I'm going with Oakland here, and may God have mercy on those who find themselves in downtown Oakland after the game!
Prediction: Oakland
Bryan Staebell
What a perfect ending to the NFL season this Super Bowl is going to be. There are two very cool storylines that will come out on Sunday. Either the Oakland Raiders will win the championship so all of their players can ride off into the sunset of retirement, and Al Davis can get one last ring, or the coach that they didn't want to give more power to takes it away from them. This is a game worth watching. Tampa Bay wins the game because... well hell, Oakland is the team that Gruden put together anyway. He'll know better than any man in the world how to beat them. I would really like to see ditching Gruden come back to bite Davis in the ass and cost him his last shot before the salary cap problems and his players� Social Security checks roll in. The only way Tampa Bay loses this game is if Brad Johnson gets hurt. Rob Johnson running an offense is a scary, scary thing.
Prediction: Tampa Bay
Dr. Tom
This is what the Super Bowl is all about: the best offense in the league squares off against the best defense. The Raiders feature two future Hall of Famers at wide receiver, and a third who�s a superstar in the making. Their running back earned 1900 combined yards this season, despite getting just half of then on the ground. And their veteran quarterback was the league MVP, expertly directing the league�s most potent offense, and the best passing attack seen in these parts since Dan Marino�s early days. Their passing game shreds the zone coverages most teams play, relying on defenders to jump their responsibilities, leaving someone open behind them. The Raiders were able to do this against every team except Miami, who had their excellent corners play in man coverage and do a lot of bumping at the line. Will the Raiders have their way with the Bucs� defense, or will this be another Miami matchup for them?
Tampa Bay has the quickest defense in the league. They�re not the biggest unit around, but what they lack in size, they make up for in rapid pursuit of the ball, cornerbacks who can jump routes with the quickness of striking vipers, and linebackers who can stuff the run as easily as they can lend excellent support to the passing defense. Tampa Bay�s defense also has a lot of discipline going for it: they�re unlikely to abandon their zones and open up holes for the Raiders to exploit. Jon Gruden is smart enough to apply the lessons of Miami, and his players are good enough to implement them. The more pertinent question for the Bucs is their offense. Lack of speed at receiver could be a problem against a secondary like Oakland�s. Can the Bucs score enough points to make their defense mean something?
When the final gun sounds, I think the Bucs will come out on top. It should be a close game, but it�ll be the kind of game that favors Tampa Bay: a struggle based more on defense and field position than lights-out offense. Also, if the game comes down to a crucial field goal, I think Martin Gramatica is a more reliable kicker than Sebastian Janikowski. The over/under is 44, and if I were betting on it, I�d take the under.
Prediction: Tampa Bay, 23-20
That�s two picks for the Raiders and two picks for the Bucs. This matchup must be as good as advertised. Here�s to a good, clean game (that part may be a bit of a stretch), and good Super Bowl parties across the country, where the alcohol flows freely and the love of football even freer.
Byron, Peter, Bryan, and The Doc
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